Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence

Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | I still believe that we're going to see turbulence in the next two to two to five years and it's going to be the government printing checks to give people sort of a UBI.

I still believe that we're going to see turbulence in the next two to two to five years and it's going to be the government printing checks to give people sort of a UBI.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I still believe that we're going to see turbulence in the next two to two to five years and it's going to be the government printing checks to give people sort of a UBI",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "verbatim": "I still believe that we're going to see turbulence in the next two to two to five years and it's going to be the government printing checks to give people sort of a UBI.",
  "conv_cues": "I still believe",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028-2031",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction.",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_006",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_048",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_039",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI takeoff/inflection is happening now",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "238_010",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance.",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "We are currently in AI hard takeoff",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "239_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First US AI-displacement legislative bill formally introduced in Congress",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Bill explicitly tying federal cash transfers (UBI / UHI / negative income tax) to AI-displaced workers introduced in House or Senate — verifiable via Congress.gov bill tracker"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First state-level AI displacement payment program enacted",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2027-08-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Any US state passes legislation creating a guaranteed-income or recurring-payment program explicitly framed as response to AI-driven displacement — confirmed via state legislative records"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BLS or independent
... (truncated)