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SEM_039predictionSemis/ASICscrypto

Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.

Predictor: Jack Dorsey

Prior probability
95.0%
Current probability
82.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31
Edges in / out
4 / 8
Tickers exposed
14

Prediction text

Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. | Already realized

Key catalyst: Already realized

Watch events: Bitcoin hashrate share from Block ASICs; transformer-ASIC production announcements (Groq / Cerebras / Etched)

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Block unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation.

Predictor: Jack Dorsey

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.722
Brier
0.0109
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 4 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jack Dorsey is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 95%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 82.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2025-05-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2025-08-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2025-12-29overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 83%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z82.8%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 84.2% → 82.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z84.2%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 86.6% → 84.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z86.6%-3.7pp
Network propagation: 90.3% → 86.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z90.3%-4.7pp
Network propagation: 95.0% → 90.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:18Z100.0%+13.4pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.866
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.13439999999999996,
  "inside_posterior": 0.8656,
  "validation_notes": "Block unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.8656,
  "resolution_evidence": "Block unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.950-0.148
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.950+0.050
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.950+0.014
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.950-0.013

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq239_001
Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk
37.7%0.6000.050+0.124
prereq248_009
Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Elon Musk
37.3%0.5500.050+0.087
prereq246_003
Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon MuElon Musk
37.3%0.5500.050+0.087
prereq239_027
Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsElon Musk
34.0%0.5000.050+0.080
prereq230_035
GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everythinAlex Wissner-Gross
32.0%0.4500.050+0.058

Ticker exposure

14 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (11)

CRCLRIOTMARAHOODIBMMAAMZNCOINGOOGLSHOPXYZ

Adverse (2)

VMA

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (8)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq239_001Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsMacro/Economy
prereq247_015Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulenceMacro/Economy
prereq248_009Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Macro/Economy
prereq246_003Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).Macro/Economy
prereq247_036Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029AI
prereq236_045Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028Geopolitics
prereq239_027Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsMacro/Economy
prereq230_035GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Macro/Economy

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importBlock unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.686manifoldWill Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?39%mentionspending2026-05-08
0.661arxivSequential Structure in Intraday Futures Data: LSTM vs Gradient Boosting on MNQmentionspending2026-05-18
0.655manifoldWill Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $83,000 first?mentionspending2026-05-18
0.649manifoldWill Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?98%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.648manifoldWill Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down?mentionspending2026-05-29
0.647manifoldWill Bitcoin hit $68,000 or $78,000 first?mentionspending2026-05-31
0.645manifoldWill the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?16%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.645manifoldBitcoin price on June 30?mentionspending2026-06-02
0.644manifoldWill Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?4%mentionspending2026-05-29
0.638manifoldWhat will Bitcoin hit first: $75k or $85kmentionspending2026-05-05

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "709 TH/s ASIC",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Dorsey's 709 TH/s ASIC signals fab-capacity pivot trajectory: once neural architectures (transformers) stabilize, expect massive shift from GPU to inference ASIC.",
  "to_year": 2025,
  "conv_cues": "astonishing; unveiled",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "late 2025",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-08-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-12-29",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SEM_039",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "236_045",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "247_015",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "239_027",
      "expected_date": "2031-07-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "230_035",
      "expected_date": "2032-07-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "246_003",
      "expected_date": "2036-09-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "239_001",
      "expected_date": "2036-10-04",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "ASICs",
  "affiliation": "Block",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.070362+00:00",
  "source_refs": "26, 27",
  "target_date": "2025-11-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "Already realized",
  "pa
... (truncated)