Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.
Predictor: Jack Dorsey
Prediction text
Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. | Already realized
Key catalyst: Already realized
Watch events: Bitcoin hashrate share from Block ASICs; transformer-ASIC production announcements (Groq / Cerebras / Etched)
Resolution evidence
Block unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation.
Predictor: Jack Dorsey
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Jack Dorsey is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-05-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2025-08-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2025-12-29overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.13439999999999996,
"inside_posterior": 0.8656,
"validation_notes": "Block unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.8656,
"resolution_evidence": "Block unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.950 | -0.148 |
| killer | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.950 | +0.050 |
| killer | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.950 | +0.014 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.950 | -0.013 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years — Elon Musk | 37.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.124 |
| prereq | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. — Elon Musk | 37.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.087 |
| prereq | 246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Mu — Elon Musk | 37.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.087 |
| prereq | 239_027 Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years — Elon Musk | 34.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.080 |
| prereq | 230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everythin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | +0.058 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (11)
Adverse (2)
Prerequisites (4)
Dependents (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_015 | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_009 | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_003 | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_036 | Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_045 | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 239_027 | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Block unveiled Bitcoin Mining Development Kit + proprietary miner at 709 TH/s per Decrypt coverage Aug 2025. Reddit r/Bitcoin Aug 2025 confirmation. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.686 | manifold | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h? | 39% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.661 | arxiv | Sequential Structure in Intraday Futures Data: LSTM vs Gradient Boosting on MNQ | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.655 | manifold | Will Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $83,000 first? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.649 | manifold | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week? | 98% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.648 | manifold | Will Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.647 | manifold | Will Bitcoin hit $68,000 or $78,000 first? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.645 | manifold | Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks? | 16% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.645 | manifold | Bitcoin price on June 30? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.644 | manifold | Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.638 | manifold | What will Bitcoin hit first: $75k or $85k | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "709 TH/s ASIC",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "Dorsey's 709 TH/s ASIC signals fab-capacity pivot trajectory: once neural architectures (transformers) stabilize, expect massive shift from GPU to inference ASIC.",
"to_year": 2025,
"conv_cues": "astonishing; unveiled",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2025,
"timeframe": "late 2025",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2025-05-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2025-08-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2025-12-29",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "SEM_039",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "236_045",
"expected_date": "2028-06-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "247_015",
"expected_date": "2030-06-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "239_027",
"expected_date": "2031-07-08",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "230_035",
"expected_date": "2032-07-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "246_003",
"expected_date": "2036-09-04",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 6,
"source_id": "239_001",
"expected_date": "2036-10-04",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "ASICs",
"affiliation": "Block",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"granularity": "YEAR",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.070362+00:00",
"source_refs": "26, 27",
"target_date": "2025-11-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
"key_catalyst": "Already realized",
"pa
... (truncated)