Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029

Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | Google moves up their deadline by six years to 2029 for basically Qday. When are we going to see quantum computers break RSA?

Google moves up their deadline by six years to 2029 for basically Qday. When are we going to see quantum computers break RSA?

Beneficiaries (22)

Adverse (2)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1M physical cubits / 4K error-corrected",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Google moves up their deadline by six years to 2029 for basically Qday",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Google moves up their deadline by six years to 2029 for basically Qday. When are we going to see quantum computers break RSA?",
  "conv_cues": "moved up",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2029,
  "timeframe": "2029",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Craig Gidney paper revises RSA-2048 break to 1M noisy qubits in <1 week",
      "notes": "HIT — Gidney's revision is the technical justification for advancing Q-Day to 2029. 20x reduction in qubit-resource estimate.",
      "source": "https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://postquantum.com/security-pqc/google-quantum-bitcoin-ecdlp/",
      "expected_date": "2025-05-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Google Quantum AI publishes paper showing RSA-2048 breakable with ~1M noisy qubits in under one week, down from 20M previously"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Google announces 2029 Q-Day deadline for post-quantum migration",
      "notes": "HIT — Google's official Q-Day 2029 announcement. Direct realization of prediction's anchor claim.",
      "source": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.pcworld.com/article/3099867/google-warns-q-day-is-coming-could-break-encryption-by-2029.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-25",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Google publicly announces 2029 deadline for quantum-safe encryption migration, advancing from prior 2035+ industry expectation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_039",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance.",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Android 17 ships post-quantum cryptography by default",
      "notes": "Google publicly committed to PQC in Android 17 by June 2026. Operational migration milestone.",
      "source": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Google ships Android 17 with PQC algorithms (e.g., ML-KEM/Kyber) integrated for default encrypted traffic"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cloudflare reaches full post-quantum security across edge by
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