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236_018predictionMacro/Economyeconomy

UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2034-12-31
Edges in / out
5 / 5
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years | When I think about the time frames here the challenging time frame uh where UBI stimulus checks capital into to sort of quelch the fear and uncertainty is like the 1 to threeyear time frame you know bringing bringing universal basic services I think is you know starts coming in maybe in 3 years to the 5 8-year time frame right I I I've always viewed that uh you know the challenges are the next 3 to 8 years

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
When I think about the time frames here the challenging time frame uh where UBI stimulus checks capital into to sort of quelch the fear and uncertainty is like the 1 to threeyear time frame you know bringing bringing universal basic services I think is you know starts coming in maybe in 3 years to the 5 8-year time frame right I I I've always viewed that uh you know the challenges are the next 3 to 8 years

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 7 pending
  1. 2026-02-19hitAndrew Yang declares 'AI jobpocalypse is here' triggering urgent UBI/stimulus framing
    How: Yang or peer thought-leader publicly calls for UBI on 12-18mo timeline due to AI displacement
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-04-17hitMusk's UHI proposal goes viral (38M+ views), shifting Overton window for AI-stimulus checks
    How: Major tech leader pushes UHI publicly with bipartisan media attention
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2029-03-25pendingFirst federal AI-stimulus check program or AI-Dividend bill introduced in Congress (1-3yr window)
    How: Federal legislation introduced proposing AI-displacement-triggered cash payments to households
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  4. 2028-04-22pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingAI-displacement triggers ≥10M white-collar US job losses YoY (forcing UBI political consensus)
    How: BLS or independent labor data shows ≥10M YoY net job losses attributable to AI/automation in white-collar roles
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  6. 2028-01-01 → 2031-03-25pendingUniversal Basic Services pilot at federal scale (housing, healthcare, transit, food bundles)
    How: Federal program covering ≥3 essential services at no cost to recipients in ≥3 states
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
  7. 2029-08-13pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  8. 2030-12-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  9. 2029-04-01 → 2034-12-31pendingUniversal Basic Services rolled out alongside UBI in 3-8 year timeframe per Diamandis framing
    How: Federal UBS framework operational covering ≥80% of US population in housing+health+food
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.0%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 51.6% → 50.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z51.6%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 54.5% → 51.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z54.5%-5.5pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 54.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.065
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.600-0.038
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.600+0.034
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.600-0.010
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.600+0.001

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_003
Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon MuElon Musk
37.3%0.5500.050-0.077
prereq248_009
Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Elon Musk
37.3%0.5500.050-0.077
prereq230_035
GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everythinAlex Wissner-Gross
32.0%0.4500.050-0.073
prereq239_027
Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsElon Musk
34.0%0.5000.050-0.068
prereq239_001
Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk
37.7%0.6000.050-0.056

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

UDMYBBAISRFMSOUNNVDACOURCRCLDOCNAIADUSGTLBZMAMZNGDDYGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTNFLXORCLRDDTSPOTUBER

Adverse (7)

KKRJNKAPOHYGKREXLYXHB

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq239_001Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsMacro/Economy
prereq246_003Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).Macro/Economy
prereq248_009Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Macro/Economy
prereq239_027Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsMacro/Economy
prereq230_035GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Macro/Economy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-03-31[Capital Markets 2028-03] [236_018] UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 yearspending

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.595manifoldReserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in September?mentionspending2026-05-16
0.578manifoldwill we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?57%mentionspending2026-06-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1-3 years UBI; 3-8 years UBS",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the challenging time frame uh where UBI stimulus checks capital into to sort of quelch the fear and uncertainty is like the 1 to threeyear time frame you know bringing bringing universal basic services I think is you know starts coming in maybe in 3 years to the 5 8-year time frame",
  "to_year": 2034,
  "verbatim": "When I think about the time frames here the challenging time frame uh where UBI stimulus checks capital into to sort of quelch the fear and uncertainty is like the 1 to threeyear time frame you know bringing bringing universal basic services I think is you know starts coming in maybe in 3 years to the 5 8-year time frame right I I I've always viewed that uh you know the challenges are the next 3 to 8 years",
  "conv_cues": "I think; I've always viewed",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027-2034",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Andrew Yang declares 'AI jobpocalypse is here' triggering urgent UBI/stimulus framing",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/25/andrew-yang-former-presidential-candidate-artifical-intelligence-job-apocalypse-white-collar-cuts-prediction-universal-basic-income/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-19",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-19",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Yang or peer thought-leader publicly calls for UBI on 12-18mo timeline due to AI displacement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk's UHI proposal goes viral (38M+ views), shifting Overton window for AI-stimulus checks",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/americans-universal-high-income-via-160900822.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-17",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major tech leader pushes UHI publicly with bipartisan media attention"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First federal AI-stimulus check program or AI-Dividend bill introduced in Congress (1-3yr window)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://taxproject.org/universal-high-income/",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-03-25",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Federal legislation introduced proposing AI-displacement-triggered cash payments to households"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-04-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-displacement triggers ≥10M white-collar US job losses YoY (forcing UBI political consensus)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://startupnews.fyi/2026/02/19/andrew-yang-warns-ai-will-displace-millions-of-white-collar-workers-within-18-months/",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
     
... (truncated)