Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually

Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | I do think some form of call it abundant capitalism or capitalism 2.0 or post scarce capitalism something like that probably emerges. It may not happen immediately. It may not happen as quickly in this country but it will get there eventually.

I do think some form of call it abundant capitalism or capitalism 2.0 or post scarce capitalism something like that probably emerges. It may not happen immediately. It may not happen as quickly in this country but it will get there eventually.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "May not happen immediately or in US first",
  "context": "I do think some form of call it abundant capitalism or capitalism 2.0 or post scarce capitalism something like that probably emerges",
  "verbatim": "I do think some form of call it abundant capitalism or capitalism 2.0 or post scarce capitalism something like that probably emerges. It may not happen immediately. It may not happen as quickly in this country but it will get there eventually.",
  "conv_cues": "probably emerges; will get there eventually",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Eventually",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanism",
      "source": "First Movers post-AGI UBI analysis; Musk UHI concept",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://firstmovers.ai/post-agi-universal-basic-income/",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public proposal, blog post, or congressional testimony from a frontier-lab CEO outlining a per-capita compute-quota or AI-dividend distribution model"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' framework",
      "source": "World Bank WDR 2026 AI for Development; Tax Project Universal High Income explainer",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2026",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Top-tier multilateral institution issues paper using terms 'post-scarcity', 'capitalism 2.0', 'post-labor economy', or 'Universal Basic Compute' with concrete policy menu"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "l
... (truncated)