Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire

Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times you you probably already saturate saturated human anything people can think of that they want

if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times you you probably already saturate saturated human anything people can think of that they want

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1000x economy",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times you you probably already saturate saturated human anything people can think of that they want",
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times you you probably already saturate saturated human anything people can think of that they want",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "UP",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectory",
      "source": "Powell/Lagarde/Georgieva AI commentary; recent BIS working papers on AI and potential output",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FRB chair, ECB president, IMF MD, or Nobel laureate publishes paper/speech arguing that the steady-state global growth rate has stepped up because of AI/automation; cites empirical productivity acceleration"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesis",
      "source": "Inferred from current AI-and-growth literature pace; Acemoglu, Brynjolfsson recent papers",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NBER, Brookings, or IMF working paper specifically models or refutes the 1000x scenario; or major Musk-Singularity-style discourse becomes mainstream policy concern"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "240_040",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive years)",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs and McKinsey AI productivity studies; BEA TFP series; Brynjolfsson-Rock-Syverson J-curve thesis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BLS, OECD, or BEA productivity reports show total factor productivity in US/EU running >2%/yr for
... (truncated)