Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source
Prediction text
Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-12-31hitJoby completes 21+ piloted Dubai test flights with full transitionsHow: Joby publicly confirms piloted test-flight count in Dubai, with full forward-transition profile demonstrated.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
- 2026-03-31overdueJoby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)How: Joby/RTA confirm completion of first Dubai vertiport build at Dubai International Airport.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%Notes: Note: research suggests Joby's first commercial UAE service is in Dubai, not Abu Dhabi; Archer is the Abu Dhabi launch partner. Prediction wording may resolve 'partial'.
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingGCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger serviceHow: UAE General Civil Aviation Authority or Abu Dhabi Department of Transport publishes operating authorization or commercial-service notice for an eVTOL operator (Joby or Archer).Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAEHow: Joby or Archer carries first ticketed/commercial passenger in UAE, evidenced by operator press release and news coverage.Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-10-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAEHow: End-to-end booking flow (ride-to-vertiport + eVTOL) selectable in the Uber app for a UAE city, the exact end-state Khosrowshahi described.Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.6875,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.07055525973504496,
"bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.48236849865958564,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.55,
"label": "Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/29/the-evtol-era-is-beginning-with-uber-and-joby-avia/",
"adjusted_llr": -0.22300580945949042,
"expected_date": "2026-03-31",
"measurement_criterion": "Joby/RTA confirm completion of first Dubai vertiport build at Dubai International Airport."
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.4271322827502442,
"posterior_logit": -0.2935610691945354,
"predictor_brier": 0.01047,
"inside_posterior": 0.4271322827502442,
"blended_posterior": 0.4271322827502442,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.22300580945949042,
"predictor_n_resolved": 3
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.033 |
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.009 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.006 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; A — Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_036 | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate | Labor/Jobs | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "Framed as hope",
"context": "what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination",
"conv_cues": "we're hoping",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "End of 2026 (Abu Dhabi)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Joby completes 21+ piloted Dubai test flights with full transitions",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://x.com/GAManufacturers/status/1982232709259780252",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Joby publicly confirms piloted test-flight count in Dubai, with full forward-transition profile demonstrated."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)",
"notes": "Note: research suggests Joby's first commercial UAE service is in Dubai, not Abu Dhabi; Archer is the Abu Dhabi launch partner. Prediction wording may resolve 'partial'.",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/29/the-evtol-era-is-beginning-with-uber-and-joby-avia/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-31",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Joby/RTA confirm completion of first Dubai vertiport build at Dubai International Airport."
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "247_058",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ord
... (truncated)