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243_027predictionAuto/Transportjobs

Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
42.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 1
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243"
what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-02
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2025-12-31hitJoby completes 21+ piloted Dubai test flights with full transitions
    How: Joby publicly confirms piloted test-flight count in Dubai, with full forward-transition profile demonstrated.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
  2. 2026-03-31overdueJoby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)
    How: Joby/RTA confirm completion of first Dubai vertiport build at Dubai International Airport.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
    Notes: Note: research suggests Joby's first commercial UAE service is in Dubai, not Abu Dhabi; Archer is the Abu Dhabi launch partner. Prediction wording may resolve 'partial'.
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingGCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger service
    How: UAE General Civil Aviation Authority or Abu Dhabi Department of Transport publishes operating authorization or commercial-service notice for an eVTOL operator (Joby or Archer).
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAE
    How: Joby or Archer carries first ticketed/commercial passenger in UAE, evidenced by operator press release and news coverage.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
  5. 2026-10-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAE
    How: End-to-end booking flow (ride-to-vertiport + eVTOL) selectable in the Uber app for a UAE city, the exact end-state Khosrowshahi described.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z42.7%-5.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.427 blend=0.427 LLR=-0.223 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.07055525973504496,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.48236849865958564,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.55,
      "label": "Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/29/the-evtol-era-is-beginning-with-uber-and-joby-avia/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.22300580945949042,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joby/RTA confirm completion of first Dubai vertiport build at Dubai International Airport."
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4271322827502442,
  "posterior_logit": -0.2935610691945354,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01047,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4271322827502442,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4271322827502442,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.22300580945949042,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.2%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 51.1% → 48.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.1%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.550+0.033
prereq247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialPeter Diamandis
71.4%0.5500.050-0.025
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.013
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050+0.009
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.006

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_036
Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AAlex Wissner-Gross
28.8%0.4500.050-0.067

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

ADUSCOURDOCNFROGGTLBINODPLROLSPIRSRFMUDMYTEAMNFLXPLTRRDDTUBERAMZNBABASPOTGDDYGOOGLMETAMSFT

Adverse (6)

RHIBXPSLGMANKFYTNET

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_036Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominateLabor/Jobs

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.620manifoldWill the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?3%mentionspending2026-05-28
0.600manifoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket]56%mentionspending2026-05-29
0.597polymarketWill Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0%mentionspending2025-12-08
0.597polymarketWill Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0%mentionspending2025-12-08
0.596manifoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket]31%mentionspending2026-05-28
0.595polymarketWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?6%mentionspending2025-12-08
0.594polymarketWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?27%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.594polymarketUAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?12%mentionspending2026-04-28
0.593polymarketWill Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0%mentionspending2025-12-08
0.586manifoldWill ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 202626%mentionspending2026-04-29

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Framed as hope",
  "context": "what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination",
  "conv_cues": "we're hoping",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "End of 2026 (Abu Dhabi)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby completes 21+ piloted Dubai test flights with full transitions",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://x.com/GAManufacturers/status/1982232709259780252",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joby publicly confirms piloted test-flight count in Dubai, with full forward-transition profile demonstrated."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)",
      "notes": "Note: research suggests Joby's first commercial UAE service is in Dubai, not Abu Dhabi; Archer is the Abu Dhabi launch partner. Prediction wording may resolve 'partial'.",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/29/the-evtol-era-is-beginning-with-uber-and-joby-avia/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joby/RTA confirm completion of first Dubai vertiport build at Dubai International Airport."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "247_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ord
... (truncated)