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244_013predictionAuto/Transportautonomous

Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
47.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US | So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)"
So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓
  1. 2026-05-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European city
    How: Paid commercial Uber-Pony.ai (with Verne) robotaxi service goes live in Zagreb, Vienna, or other European city; announced via press release or app launch.
    Source: https://www.phocuswire.com/news/technology/uber-verne-ponyai-robotaxi-autonomous-vehiclesconf 65%
  2. 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31pendingKhosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026
    How: Earnings call or interview where Khosrowshahi or CFO states Uber-Chinese AV partner robotaxi services live in 10 or more countries (matches stated 2026 target).
    Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/455938/conf 55%
  3. 2026-05-01 → 2027-09-30pendingUber-Baidu robotaxi launches in London or other non-China non-US market
    How: Uber-Baidu robotaxi service operational with riders in London (announced December 2025) or another non-US, non-China market; live ride completion confirmed by Uber/Baidu.
    Source: https://carboncredits.com/uber-accelerates-robotaxi-ambitions-with-baidu-and-lucid-partnerships/conf 60%
  4. 2026-05-01 → 2027-12-31pendingUber-WeRide expands to 5+ Middle East/Europe cities beyond Saudi Arabia/Dubai
    How: Uber and WeRide jointly announce robotaxi service operating in at least 5 additional cities (beyond Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Dubai) across Middle East/Europe.
    Source: https://insideautonomousvehicles.com/uber-announces-new-strategic-partnerships-for-autonomous-fleet-deployment/conf 60%
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingUber discloses cumulative robotaxi rides via Chinese AV partners crossing 1M
    How: Uber earnings call, investor day, or Khosrowshahi public statement quantifies 1 million or more cumulative completed rides via Pony.ai, WeRide, and/or Baidu vehicles outside the US.
    Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/455938/conf 50%
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCascade: Uber files investor update splitting AV ride economics from human-driver baseline
    How: Uber 10-Q or 10-K explicitly segments robotaxi take-rate, contribution margin, and ride volume from human-driven mobility, indicating material AV revenue line.
    Source: https://restofworld.org/2026/robotaxis-gulf-china/conf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z47.0%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 48.1% → 47.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.1%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 49.8% → 48.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.8%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 51.9% → 49.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.9%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5500.050-0.087
prereq247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialPeter Diamandis
71.4%0.5500.050-0.067
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.048
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.550+0.040

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq242_015
Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son getSalim Ismail
71.2%0.9200.050-0.261
prereq246_039
Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.Peter Diamandis
49.2%0.6500.050-0.166
prereq243_031
Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than todayDara Khosrowshahi
46.3%0.6500.050-0.137
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.033
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.020

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

INVZWRDLIDRAEVAMBLYPONYOUSTVRRMAMBAAURAIOTHSAIMBGAFBIDUBMWYYGMGOOGLHMCIOTQCOMTMTSLAUBERVWAGY

Adverse (5)

MCYALLCINFPGRTRV

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK11Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq242_015Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's licenseAuto/Transport
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_039Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.Auto/Transport
prereq243_031Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USLabor/Jobs

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-06-30[Autonomous 2026-06] [244_013] Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rulespending

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.623edgar_8kUber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)mentionspending2026-05-08
0.623edgar_8kUber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.504edgar_8kLENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC (LII) (CIK 0001069202)mentionspending2026-04-29

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Baidu is hopeful, not confirmed",
  "context": "in the same way we're also working with Chinese autonomous players. So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.",
  "conv_cues": "hopefully",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Ongoing/near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "247_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "244_013",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European city",
      "source": "https://www.phocuswire.com/news/technology/uber-verne-ponyai-robotaxi-autonomous-vehicles",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-29",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Paid commercial Uber-Pony.ai (with Verne) robotaxi service goes live in Zagreb, Vienna, or other European city; announced via press release or app launch."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Khosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026",
      "source": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/455938/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Earnings call or interview where Khosrowshahi or CFO states Uber-Chinese AV partner robotaxi services live in 10 or more countries (match
... (truncated)