Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source
Prediction text
Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US | So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.
Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules
Verbatim quote
So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-05-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European cityHow: Paid commercial Uber-Pony.ai (with Verne) robotaxi service goes live in Zagreb, Vienna, or other European city; announced via press release or app launch.Source: https://www.phocuswire.com/news/technology/uber-verne-ponyai-robotaxi-autonomous-vehiclesconf 65%
- 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31pendingKhosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026How: Earnings call or interview where Khosrowshahi or CFO states Uber-Chinese AV partner robotaxi services live in 10 or more countries (matches stated 2026 target).Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/455938/conf 55%
- 2026-05-01 → 2027-09-30pendingUber-Baidu robotaxi launches in London or other non-China non-US marketHow: Uber-Baidu robotaxi service operational with riders in London (announced December 2025) or another non-US, non-China market; live ride completion confirmed by Uber/Baidu.Source: https://carboncredits.com/uber-accelerates-robotaxi-ambitions-with-baidu-and-lucid-partnerships/conf 60%
- 2026-05-01 → 2027-12-31pendingUber-WeRide expands to 5+ Middle East/Europe cities beyond Saudi Arabia/DubaiHow: Uber and WeRide jointly announce robotaxi service operating in at least 5 additional cities (beyond Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Dubai) across Middle East/Europe.Source: https://insideautonomousvehicles.com/uber-announces-new-strategic-partnerships-for-autonomous-fleet-deployment/conf 60%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingUber discloses cumulative robotaxi rides via Chinese AV partners crossing 1MHow: Uber earnings call, investor day, or Khosrowshahi public statement quantifies 1 million or more cumulative completed rides via Pony.ai, WeRide, and/or Baidu vehicles outside the US.Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/455938/conf 50%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCascade: Uber files investor update splitting AV ride economics from human-driver baselineHow: Uber 10-Q or 10-K explicitly segments robotaxi take-rate, contribution margin, and ride volume from human-driven mobility, indicating material AV revenue line.Source: https://restofworld.org/2026/robotaxis-gulf-china/conf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.087 |
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.040 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_015 Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son get — Salim Ismail | 71.2% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.261 |
| prereq | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. — Peter Diamandis | 49.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.166 |
| prereq | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today — Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.137 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.020 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_015 | Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_031 | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Labor/Jobs | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | [Autonomous 2026-06] [244_013] Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules | pending |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.623 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.623 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.504 | edgar_8k | LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC (LII) (CIK 0001069202) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "Baidu is hopeful, not confirmed",
"context": "in the same way we're also working with Chinese autonomous players. So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "So whether it's a whether it's a Pony or a WeRide, hopefully Baidu as well. We are working with these players in many markets outside of the US obviously.",
"conv_cues": "hopefully",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Ongoing/near-term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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},
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},
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"label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
"status": "hit",
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"ordinal": -1,
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "244_013",
"expected_date": "2026-06-17",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European city",
"source": "https://www.phocuswire.com/news/technology/uber-verne-ponyai-robotaxi-autonomous-vehicles",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_date": "2026-11-29",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Paid commercial Uber-Pony.ai (with Verne) robotaxi service goes live in Zagreb, Vienna, or other European city; announced via press release or app launch."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Khosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026",
"source": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/455938/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2026-12-30",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-03-31",
"from": "2026-10-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Earnings call or interview where Khosrowshahi or CFO states Uber-Chinese AV partner robotaxi services live in 10 or more countries (match
... (truncated)