Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US

Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | looking forward to 2030, we're going to have significantly more drivers uh on the platform, including the US, than we have today.

looking forward to 2030, we're going to have significantly more drivers uh on the platform, including the US, than we have today.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "significantly more",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "looking forward to 2030, we're going to have significantly more drivers uh on the platform, including the US, than we have today.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "looking forward to 2030, we're going to have significantly more drivers uh on the platform, including the US, than we have today.",
  "conv_cues": "we're going to have",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2030,
  "timeframe": "By 2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "242_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "244_019",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "241_050",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "243_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber operates robotaxis in 15 US/global cities by end of 2026",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/uber-ceo-Khosrowshahi-av-robotaxi-plans/811321/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber Q4-2026 investor update or app coverage map confirms autonomous-vehicle ride-hail operations live in >=15 cities across Uber-Waymo, WeRide, May Mobility, Avride, and other partners"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber begins scaling global autonomous fleet toward 100,000 vehicles starting 2027",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/455938/",
      "expected_date": "2027-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber annual report or Khosrowshahi shareholder letter confirms commencement of 100,000-vehicle global AV fleet scale-up program with cumulative AV trips exceeding 50M annually"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "labe
... (truncated)