Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass production
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source
Prediction text
Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass production | Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time.
Verbatim quote
Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-01hitTesla Cybercab production begins at Texas GigafactoryHow: Tesla announces start of Cybercab production line operations at Gigafactory TexasSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 78%
- 2026-12-31pendingWaymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026How: Sum of operational Waymo (>3,000) + Tesla Robotaxi (~1,500-2,000) deployed AVs in US-only commercial serviceSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areasHow: State DMV/PUC grants any operator a multi-metro driverless commercial deployment certificateSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2028-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingAnnual US new-vehicle sales with full-self-driving hardware crosses 50% markHow: OEM deliveries report or NHTSA data show >50% of new US light vehicle sales include L4-capable AV hardwareSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2029-10-31pendingQ4 2029 — driver's license still required in Ilia's home stateHow: State DMV in subject's residence still issues/requires Class C licenses for personal vehicle operation; AV mass production not yet rendered them optionalSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.165 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | SEM_005 Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distr — Sam Altman | 72.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.057 |
| killer | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.047 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today — Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.146 |
| prereq | 243_017 Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making — Dara Khosrowshahi | 41.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.121 |
| prereq | 243_013 Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous so — Dara Khosrowshahi | 41.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.116 |
| prereq | 244_002 Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous driver — Dara Khosrowshahi | 37.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| killer | TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_031 | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_013 | Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_017 | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_002 | Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) | Auto/Transport | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2029-12-31 | [Autonomous 2029-12] pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); [244_017] Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass | pending |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "3 years",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "So Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time. They are very expensive today, much more expensive than a regular car",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time.",
"conv_cues": "I think",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2029,
"timeframe": "By 2029 (3 years from 2026)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Tesla Cybercab production begins at Texas Gigafactory",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.78,
"source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/25/why-2026-will-be-the-year-of-the-tesla-robotaxi/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"observed_date": "2026-04-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla announces start of Cybercab production line operations at Gigafactory Texas"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "244_019",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Waymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/waymo-amazon-zoox-tesla-robotaxi-expansion.html",
"expected_date": "2026-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Sum of operational Waymo (>3,000) + Tesla Robotaxi (~1,500-2,000) deployed AVs in US-only commercial service"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areas",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://evdances.com/blogs/news/how-waymo-s-robotaxi-growth-compares-with-tesla-in-2026",
"expected_date": "2027-10-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "State DMV/PUC grants any operator a multi-metro driverless commercial deployment certificate"
},
{
"kin
... (truncated)