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244_017predictionAuto/Transportautonomous

Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass production

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
45.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2029-01-01 – 2029-10-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass production | Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)"
Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-04-01hitTesla Cybercab production begins at Texas Gigafactory
    How: Tesla announces start of Cybercab production line operations at Gigafactory Texas
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 78%
  2. 2026-12-31pendingWaymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026
    How: Sum of operational Waymo (>3,000) + Tesla Robotaxi (~1,500-2,000) deployed AVs in US-only commercial service
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areas
    How: State DMV/PUC grants any operator a multi-metro driverless commercial deployment certificate
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingAnnual US new-vehicle sales with full-self-driving hardware crosses 50% mark
    How: OEM deliveries report or NHTSA data show >50% of new US light vehicle sales include L4-capable AV hardware
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  5. 2029-10-31pendingQ4 2029 — driver's license still required in Ilia's home state
    How: State DMV in subject's residence still issues/requires Class C licenses for personal vehicle operation; AV mass production not yet rendered them optional
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.3%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 46.8% → 45.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.8%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 49.0% → 46.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.0%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 51.4% → 49.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.4%-3.6pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.5500.050-0.165
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5500.050-0.071
prereqSEM_005
Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distrSam Altman
72.3%0.5500.050-0.068
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.550+0.057
killerTK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.047

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq243_031
Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than todayDara Khosrowshahi
46.3%0.6500.050-0.146
prereq243_017
Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making Dara Khosrowshahi
41.6%0.6000.050-0.121
prereq243_013
Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous soDara Khosrowshahi
41.0%0.6000.050-0.116
prereq244_002
Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous driverDara Khosrowshahi
37.6%0.6000.050-0.081
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.030

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

INVZWRDLIDRAEVAMBLYPONYOUSTVRRMAMBAAURAIOTHSAIMBGAFBIDUBMWYYGMGOOGLHMCIOTQCOMTMTSLAUBERVWAGY

Adverse (5)

MCYALLCINFPGRTRV

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
killerTK11Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq243_031Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USLabor/Jobs
prereq243_013Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwareAuto/Transport
prereq243_017Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq244_002Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)Auto/Transport

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2029-12-31[Autonomous 2029-12] pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); [244_017] Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV masspending

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "3 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "So Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time. They are very expensive today, much more expensive than a regular car",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "Ilia, I think three years from now you will still want to get a driver's license because even though these AVs are coming, mass production of these AVs is going to take some time.",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2029,
  "timeframe": "By 2029 (3 years from 2026)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla Cybercab production begins at Texas Gigafactory",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/25/why-2026-will-be-the-year-of-the-tesla-robotaxi/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla announces start of Cybercab production line operations at Gigafactory Texas"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "244_019",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/waymo-amazon-zoox-tesla-robotaxi-expansion.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Sum of operational Waymo (>3,000) + Tesla Robotaxi (~1,500-2,000) deployed AVs in US-only commercial service"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areas",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://evdances.com/blogs/news/how-waymo-s-robotaxi-growth-compares-with-tesla-in-2026",
      "expected_date": "2027-10-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "State DMV/PUC grants any operator a multi-metro driverless commercial deployment certificate"
    },
    {
      "kin
... (truncated)