Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software

Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | I think if if you think about 10 years from now, I think every single new car sold is going to have autonomous software associated with it.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

I think if if you think about 10 years from now, I think every single new car sold is going to have autonomous software associated with it.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100% of new cars",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "if you think about 10 years from now, I think every single new car sold is going to have autonomous software associated with it.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "I think if if you think about 10 years from now, I think every single new car sold is going to have autonomous software associated with it.",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "By 2036",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "242_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "244_019",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla Cybercab production exceeds 100K units cumulative",
      "source": "ilovetesla.com Cybercab production report; Tesla SEC filings",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://ilovetesla.com/tesla-cybercab-ignites-the-robotaxi-revolution-from-giga-texas-milestones-to-nationwide-expansion-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2027-08-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla 10-Q or 10-K production disclosure shows cumulative Cybercab units shipped >=100,000; first production unit rolled off Giga Texas line February 17, 2026 with volume production starting April 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First top-10 OEM commits publicly that >=50% of new model lineup ships with hands-off SAE Level 3+ autonomy",
      "source": "OEM investor presentations, 10-K disclosures",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Investor day or 10-K commits a 5-year roadmap in which majority of newly-launched models include SAE Level 3 or higher autonomous-software stack as standard or optional"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mercedes / BMW reverse Level 3 retreat and resume L3 deployment in US-market models",
      "source": "Autoblo
... (truncated)