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236_025predictionReal Estatejobs

Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes

Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
42.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 0
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes | you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling.

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling.

Predictor: Andrew Yang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0178
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-02
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
  1. 2025-09-01 → 2026-06-30overdueGoldman Sachs warns AI-fueled layoffs could raise 2026 unemployment
    How: Goldman Sachs (or comparable bulge-bracket research) publishes note explicitly warning AI-driven white-collar layoffs as 2026 macro risk
    Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mass-layoffs-ai-white-collar-133000295.htmlconf 85%
  2. 2026-03-31hitWestchester County housing prices remain UP 5-19% YoY (counter-evidence)
    How: Zillow/Redfin/Westfair confirms Westchester County NY median home value $750K-$842K with +5.6% to +19.8% YoY appreciation as of March 2026 — counter to Yang's prediction
    Source: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/3148/westchester-county-ny/conf 95%
  3. 2026-04-30hitRecent-graduate unemployment rises faster than overall workforce (2x)
    How: BLS / Fortune coverage confirms recent-grad unemployment ~6% vs overall ~4.3%, with grad rate rising 2x faster since 2022
    Source: https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/ai-agentic-entry-level-jobs-disappearing-yale-celi-sonnenfeld/conf 90%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSuburban high-end inventory rises >=20% YoY in NYC peninsula/CA Bay suburbs
    How: Redfin/Zillow/Realtor.com report >=20% YoY increase in active listings in Westchester County NY or San Mateo/Santa Clara CA — leading indicator of price softening
    Source: https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/wholesale/why-ai-fueled-white-collar-layoffs-could-devastate-the-housing-market-in-2026/568269conf 30%
  5. 2026-12-01 → 2027-06-30pendingWestchester median home price declines >=5% YoY (Yang's thesis fires)
    How: Zillow / Redfin / Case-Shiller report Westchester County NY median home price >=5% lower YoY — primary measurement of Yang's prediction firing
    Source: https://www.redfin.com/county/2004/NY/Westchester-County/housing-marketconf 15%
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCascade: Mortgage Professional / NAR cite white-collar AI layoffs as primary driver of suburban downturn
    How: National Association of Realtors, MBA, or major housing journalism explicitly attributes coastal-suburban price decline to AI-driven white-collar displacement, not interest rates or general macro
    Source: https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/wholesale/why-ai-fueled-white-collar-layoffs-could-devastate-the-housing-market-in-2026/568269conf 20%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z42.4%-5.9pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.424 blend=0.424 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Andrew Yang",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.07055525973504496,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.48236849865958564,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.584375,
      "label": "Goldman Sachs warns AI-fueled layoffs could raise 2026 unemployment",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.23694367255070856,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs (or comparable bulge-bracket research) publishes note explicitly warning AI-driven white-collar layoffs as 2026 macro risk"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4237253382235015,
  "posterior_logit": -0.30749893228575353,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0178,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4237253382235015,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4237253382235015,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.23694367255070856,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.2%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 51.1% → 48.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.1%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.550+0.036
prereq247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialPeter Diamandis
71.4%0.5500.050-0.021
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050+0.012
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.010
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050+0.007

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

ADUSCOURDOCNFROGGTLBINODPLROLSPIRSRFMUDMYTEAMNFLXPLTRRDDTUBERAMZNBABASPOTGDDYGOOGLMETAMSFT

Adverse (6)

RHIBXPSLGMANKFYTNET

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.600manifoldHow will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?mentionspending2026-04-24
0.554polymarketChicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres38%mentionspending2026-04-26
0.551polymarketChicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres43%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.550polymarketChicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres13%mentionspending2026-04-27
0.540polymarketKansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox52%mentionspending2026-05-06
0.539polymarketChicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox55%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.538polymarketChicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies96%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.538polymarketKansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox51%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.537polymarketChicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies37%mentionspending2026-05-30
0.537polymarketKansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox56%mentionspending2026-05-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
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  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "I said you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling. So if you can get a reasonable price um at the front of the line uh you'd much prefer that than trying to wait",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be selling",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
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      "weight": 0.4,
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
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      "status": "hit",
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      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
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... (truncated)