Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes
Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes | you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling.
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling.
Predictor: Andrew Yang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-09-01 → 2026-06-30overdueGoldman Sachs warns AI-fueled layoffs could raise 2026 unemploymentHow: Goldman Sachs (or comparable bulge-bracket research) publishes note explicitly warning AI-driven white-collar layoffs as 2026 macro riskSource: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mass-layoffs-ai-white-collar-133000295.htmlconf 85%
- 2026-03-31hitWestchester County housing prices remain UP 5-19% YoY (counter-evidence)How: Zillow/Redfin/Westfair confirms Westchester County NY median home value $750K-$842K with +5.6% to +19.8% YoY appreciation as of March 2026 — counter to Yang's predictionSource: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/3148/westchester-county-ny/conf 95%
- 2026-04-30hitRecent-graduate unemployment rises faster than overall workforce (2x)How: BLS / Fortune coverage confirms recent-grad unemployment ~6% vs overall ~4.3%, with grad rate rising 2x faster since 2022Source: https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/ai-agentic-entry-level-jobs-disappearing-yale-celi-sonnenfeld/conf 90%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSuburban high-end inventory rises >=20% YoY in NYC peninsula/CA Bay suburbsHow: Redfin/Zillow/Realtor.com report >=20% YoY increase in active listings in Westchester County NY or San Mateo/Santa Clara CA — leading indicator of price softeningSource: https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/wholesale/why-ai-fueled-white-collar-layoffs-could-devastate-the-housing-market-in-2026/568269conf 30%
- 2026-12-01 → 2027-06-30pendingWestchester median home price declines >=5% YoY (Yang's thesis fires)How: Zillow / Redfin / Case-Shiller report Westchester County NY median home price >=5% lower YoY — primary measurement of Yang's prediction firingSource: https://www.redfin.com/county/2004/NY/Westchester-County/housing-marketconf 15%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCascade: Mortgage Professional / NAR cite white-collar AI layoffs as primary driver of suburban downturnHow: National Association of Realtors, MBA, or major housing journalism explicitly attributes coastal-suburban price decline to AI-driven white-collar displacement, not interest rates or general macroSource: https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/wholesale/why-ai-fueled-white-collar-layoffs-could-devastate-the-housing-market-in-2026/568269conf 20%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.6875,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Andrew Yang",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.07055525973504496,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.48236849865958564,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.584375,
"label": "Goldman Sachs warns AI-fueled layoffs could raise 2026 unemployment",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.23694367255070856,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs (or comparable bulge-bracket research) publishes note explicitly warning AI-driven white-collar layoffs as 2026 macro risk"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.4237253382235015,
"posterior_logit": -0.30749893228575353,
"predictor_brier": 0.0178,
"inside_posterior": 0.4237253382235015,
"blended_posterior": 0.4237253382235015,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.23694367255070856,
"predictor_n_resolved": 3
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.036 |
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.021 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.012 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.007 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.600 | manifold | How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
| 0.554 | polymarket | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres | 38% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-26 |
| 0.551 | polymarket | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres | 43% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-25 |
| 0.550 | polymarket | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres | 13% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.540 | polymarket | Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox | 52% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.539 | polymarket | Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox | 55% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
| 0.538 | polymarket | Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 96% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.538 | polymarket | Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox | 51% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.537 | polymarket | Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 37% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
| 0.537 | polymarket | Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox | 56% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-Politician",
"context": "I said you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling. So if you can get a reasonable price um at the front of the line uh you'd much prefer that than trying to wait",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "you might want to put your home up for sale first because you don't want to be last. like you know if if you live in Westchester County or some of the peninsula suburbs like people are going to be selling.",
"conv_cues": "going to be selling",
"direction": "DOWN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Near-term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Goldman Sachs warns AI-fueled layoffs could raise 2026 unemployment",
"source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mass-layoffs-ai-white-collar-133000295.html",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-06-30",
"from": "2025-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs (or comparable bulge-bracket research) publishes note explicitly warning AI-driven white-collar layoffs as 2026 macro risk"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Westchester County housing prices remain UP 5-19% YoY (counter-evidence)",
"source": "https://www.zillow.com/home-values/3148/westchester-county-ny/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"expected_date": "2026-03-31",
"observed_date": "2026-03-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Zillow/Redfin/Westfair confirms Westchester County NY median home value $750K-$842K with +5.6% to +19.8% YoY appreciation as of March 2026 — counter to Yang's prediction"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "247_058",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Recent-graduate unemployment rises faster than overall workfor
... (truncated)