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243_028predictionAuto/Transportjobs

Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
40.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
2/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31
Edges in / out
7 / 1
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) | hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well.

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243"
hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-03-25hitJoby clears FAA Stage 4 (airworthiness conformity review)
    How: FAA confirms Joby Stage 4 cleared; reported by Aircraft Insider and Altitudes Magazine in late March 2026
    Source: https://www.aircraftinsider.com/joby-aviation-clears-faa-stage-4-certification-commercial-evtol-passenger-flights-could-launch-by-end-of-2026/conf 95%
  2. 2026-04-28hitJoby NYC commercial demo / press flight
    How: Joby completes NYC eVTOL demo flight showcasing commercial readiness; covered by 24/7 Wall St and major financial press
    Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/28/jobys-nyc-air-taxi-demo-is-the-evtol-commercial-breakthrough-finally-here/conf 90%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing complete
    How: Joby investor relations / FAA confirm completion of TIA compliance flight testing campaign — final stage before Type Certificate
    Source: https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/joby-caps-year-of-flight-demonstrating-global-commercialconf 70%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingJoby receives FAA Type Certificate for S4 eVTOL
    How: FAA issues Joby Type Certificate (first ever for commercial eVTOL); Joby IR press release + FAA registry confirmation
    Source: https://www.altitudesmagazine.com/joby-aviation-targets-late-2026-commercial-launch-faa-certification/conf 55%
  5. 2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingJoby commercial passenger service begins in US (NYC or LAX route)
    How: First revenue-paying passenger flight in US commercial operation, NYC or LAX route with Delta partner; press release + media coverage of inaugural flight
    Source: https://www.flyingmag.com/joby-passenger-air-taxi-service-2026/conf 50%
  6. 2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Joby manufacturing capacity reaches 4 aircraft/month (2027 target)
    How: Joby quarterly earnings or capacity announcement confirms 4-aircraft/month production rate at Marina + Dayton facilities
    Source: https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/joby-announces-plans-to-double-manufacturing-capacity-inconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.9%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.1%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 43.9% → 42.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.9%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 43.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialPeter Diamandis
71.4%0.5000.050-0.041
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.031
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.024
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.500-0.021
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050-0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_036
Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AAlex Wissner-Gross
28.8%0.4500.050-0.078

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

ADUSCOURDOCNFROGGTLBINODPLROLSPIRSRFMUDMYTEAMNFLXPLTRRDDTUBERAMZNBABASPOTGDDYGOOGLMETAMSFT

Adverse (6)

RHIBXPSLGMANKFYTNET

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_036Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominateLabor/Jobs

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-09-30[Autonomous 2028-09] [243_028] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updatespending

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.605manifoldWill GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?8%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.593manifoldWill I qualify for the 2027 USA TST46%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.592manifoldWill ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 202626%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.589manifoldWill at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?33%mentionspending2026-06-06
0.585manifoldWill I speak to a human in the next week?72%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.575manifoldWill Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027?34%mentionspending2026-05-15
0.555polymarketWill Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?5%mentionspending2026-04-23
0.551manifoldOn what dates will Keir Starmer’s successor be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?mentionspending2026-05-25

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Subject to licensing",
  "context": "hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well. These the the the technology is absolutely real. Now it's about getting the technology licensed",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well.",
  "conv_cues": "hopefully",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby clears FAA Stage 4 (airworthiness conformity review)",
      "source": "https://www.aircraftinsider.com/joby-aviation-clears-faa-stage-4-certification-commercial-evtol-passenger-flights-could-launch-by-end-of-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-25",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FAA confirms Joby Stage 4 cleared; reported by Aircraft Insider and Altitudes Magazine in late March 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby NYC commercial demo / press flight",
      "source": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/28/jobys-nyc-air-taxi-demo-is-the-evtol-commercial-breakthrough-finally-here/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joby completes NYC eVTOL demo flight showcasing commercial readiness; covered by 24/7 Wall St and major financial press"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "247_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing complete",
      "source": "https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/joby-caps-year-of-flight-demonstrating-global-commercial",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterio
... (truncated)