Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source
Prediction text
Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) | hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well.
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-25hitJoby clears FAA Stage 4 (airworthiness conformity review)How: FAA confirms Joby Stage 4 cleared; reported by Aircraft Insider and Altitudes Magazine in late March 2026Source: https://www.aircraftinsider.com/joby-aviation-clears-faa-stage-4-certification-commercial-evtol-passenger-flights-could-launch-by-end-of-2026/conf 95%
- 2026-04-28hitJoby NYC commercial demo / press flightHow: Joby completes NYC eVTOL demo flight showcasing commercial readiness; covered by 24/7 Wall St and major financial pressSource: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/28/jobys-nyc-air-taxi-demo-is-the-evtol-commercial-breakthrough-finally-here/conf 90%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing completeHow: Joby investor relations / FAA confirm completion of TIA compliance flight testing campaign — final stage before Type CertificateSource: https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/joby-caps-year-of-flight-demonstrating-global-commercialconf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingJoby receives FAA Type Certificate for S4 eVTOLHow: FAA issues Joby Type Certificate (first ever for commercial eVTOL); Joby IR press release + FAA registry confirmationSource: https://www.altitudesmagazine.com/joby-aviation-targets-late-2026-commercial-launch-faa-certification/conf 55%
- 2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingJoby commercial passenger service begins in US (NYC or LAX route)How: First revenue-paying passenger flight in US commercial operation, NYC or LAX route with Delta partner; press release + media coverage of inaugural flightSource: https://www.flyingmag.com/joby-passenger-air-taxi-service-2026/conf 50%
- 2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Joby manufacturing capacity reaches 4 aircraft/month (2027 target)How: Joby quarterly earnings or capacity announcement confirms 4-aircraft/month production rate at Marina + Dayton facilitiesSource: https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/joby-announces-plans-to-double-manufacturing-capacity-inconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.021 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.016 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; A — Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.078 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_036 | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate | Labor/Jobs | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-09-30 | [Autonomous 2028-09] [243_028] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates | pending |
Linked documents (8)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.605 | manifold | Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026? | 8% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.593 | manifold | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST | 46% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.592 | manifold | Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026 | 26% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.589 | manifold | Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th? | 33% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-06 |
| 0.585 | manifold | Will I speak to a human in the next week? | 72% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.575 | manifold | Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027? | 34% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.555 | polymarket | Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season? | 5% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
| 0.551 | manifold | On what dates will Keir Starmer’s successor be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-25 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "Subject to licensing",
"context": "hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well. These the the the technology is absolutely real. Now it's about getting the technology licensed",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well.",
"conv_cues": "hopefully",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "2027",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Joby clears FAA Stage 4 (airworthiness conformity review)",
"source": "https://www.aircraftinsider.com/joby-aviation-clears-faa-stage-4-certification-commercial-evtol-passenger-flights-could-launch-by-end-of-2026/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"expected_date": "2026-03-25",
"observed_date": "2026-03-25",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "FAA confirms Joby Stage 4 cleared; reported by Aircraft Insider and Altitudes Magazine in late March 2026"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Joby NYC commercial demo / press flight",
"source": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/28/jobys-nyc-air-taxi-demo-is-the-evtol-commercial-breakthrough-finally-here/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"expected_date": "2026-04-28",
"observed_date": "2026-04-28",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Joby completes NYC eVTOL demo flight showcasing commercial readiness; covered by 24/7 Wall St and major financial press"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "247_058",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing complete",
"source": "https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/joby-caps-year-of-flight-demonstrating-global-commercial",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2026-09-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterio
... (truncated)