Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 | we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.
Predictor: Andrew Yang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-15hit1.2M+ job cuts announced in 2025 with 4.5% citing AIHow: Challenger / BLS data confirms >1.2M job cuts in 2025 with >=55K citing AI as direct causeSource: https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance — HBR layoffs reportconf 90%
- 2026-01-31hitMcKinsey cuts 200 tech/support staff (firing precedent)How: McKinsey announces ~200 technology/support layoffs explicitly attributed to generative-AI displacement, with signals of further non-client cutsSource: https://www.metaintro.com/blog/mckinsey-layoffs-2026-ai-white-collar-consulting — McKinsey 200 cutsconf 95%
- 2026-02-28hitBlackRock cuts 250 jobs (~1% of workforce) in 3rd roundHow: BlackRock announces ~250 job cuts (~1% of workforce) — third such round in a year, indicating sustained AI-driven trimSource: https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/blackrock-layoffs-2026 — BlackRock 3rd roundconf 92%
- 2026-04-30hit60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026How: Resume.org or equivalent survey shows >=60% of US hiring managers cite AI/automation as their #1 reason for planned 2026 layoffsSource: https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance — Resume.org surveyconf 85%
- 2026-09-30pending30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI)How: McKinsey 2026 State of AI confirms >=30% of surveyed companies have already executed AI-driven workforce reduction in 2026Source: https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/mckinsey-report-layoffs-due-to-ai — McKinsey 30% layoffsconf 75%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingCascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single yearHow: Challenger/BLS year-end 2026 report confirms >=200K announced layoffs with AI as cited primary causeSource: Extrapolation from 55K AI-cited cuts in 2025conf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.051 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.026 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.020 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; A — Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.047 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_036 | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate | Labor/Jobs | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-09-30 | [Labor/Policy 2027-09] ; AI-displacement-specific retraining p [236_003] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.747 | manifold | Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026? | 23% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.671 | manifold | Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added? | 67% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.670 | manifold | 3rd largest company end of June 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.667 | manifold | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026? | 29% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.664 | manifold | 3rd largest company end of July 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.663 | manifold | 3rd largest company end of September 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.655 | manifold | 2nd largest company end of September 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.651 | manifold | Largest company end of September 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.647 | manifold | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? | 60% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.634 | manifold | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%? | 82% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-Politician",
"context": "we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.",
"conv_cues": "I do think",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "1.2M+ job cuts announced in 2025 with 4.5% citing AI",
"source": "https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance — HBR layoffs report",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance",
"expected_date": "2026-01-15",
"observed_date": "2026-01-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Challenger / BLS data confirms >1.2M job cuts in 2025 with >=55K citing AI as direct cause"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "McKinsey cuts 200 tech/support staff (firing precedent)",
"source": "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/mckinsey-layoffs-2026-ai-white-collar-consulting — McKinsey 200 cuts",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/mckinsey-layoffs-2026-ai-white-collar-consulting",
"expected_date": "2026-01-31",
"observed_date": "2026-01-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "McKinsey announces ~200 technology/support layoffs explicitly attributed to generative-AI displacement, with signals of further non-client cuts"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "BlackRock cuts 250 jobs (~1% of workforce) in 3rd round",
"source": "https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/blackrock-layoffs-2026 — BlackRock 3rd round",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.92,
"source_url": "https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/blackrock-layoffs-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-02-28",
"observed_date": "2026-02-28",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "BlackRock announces ~250 job cuts (~1% of workforce) — third such round in a year, indicating sustained AI-driven trim"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "247_058",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
... (truncated)