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236_003predictionLabor/Jobsjobs

Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026

Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
48.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
7 / 1
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 | we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.

Predictor: Andrew Yang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0178
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 48.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 9 fired ✓
  1. 2026-01-15hit1.2M+ job cuts announced in 2025 with 4.5% citing AI
    How: Challenger / BLS data confirms >1.2M job cuts in 2025 with >=55K citing AI as direct cause
    Source: https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance — HBR layoffs reportconf 90%
  2. 2026-01-31hitMcKinsey cuts 200 tech/support staff (firing precedent)
    How: McKinsey announces ~200 technology/support layoffs explicitly attributed to generative-AI displacement, with signals of further non-client cuts
    Source: https://www.metaintro.com/blog/mckinsey-layoffs-2026-ai-white-collar-consulting — McKinsey 200 cutsconf 95%
  3. 2026-02-28hitBlackRock cuts 250 jobs (~1% of workforce) in 3rd round
    How: BlackRock announces ~250 job cuts (~1% of workforce) — third such round in a year, indicating sustained AI-driven trim
    Source: https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/blackrock-layoffs-2026 — BlackRock 3rd roundconf 92%
  4. 2026-04-30hit60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026
    How: Resume.org or equivalent survey shows >=60% of US hiring managers cite AI/automation as their #1 reason for planned 2026 layoffs
    Source: https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance — Resume.org surveyconf 85%
  5. 2026-09-30pending30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI)
    How: McKinsey 2026 State of AI confirms >=30% of surveyed companies have already executed AI-driven workforce reduction in 2026
    Source: https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/mckinsey-report-layoffs-due-to-ai — McKinsey 30% layoffsconf 75%
  6. 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingCascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single year
    How: Challenger/BLS year-end 2026 report confirms >=200K announced layoffs with AI as cited primary cause
    Source: Extrapolation from 55K AI-cited cuts in 2025conf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 49%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z48.9%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 50.3% → 48.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.3%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 52.6% → 50.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.6%-3.2pp
Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialPeter Diamandis
71.4%0.6000.050-0.051
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.038
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.030
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.600-0.026
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.020

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_036
Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AAlex Wissner-Gross
28.8%0.4500.050-0.047

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

ADUSCOURDOCNFROGGTLBINODPLROLSPIRSRFMUDMYTEAMNFLXPLTRRDDTUBERAMZNBABASPOTGDDYGOOGLMETAMSFT

Adverse (6)

RHIBXPSLGMANKFYTNET

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_036Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominateLabor/Jobs

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-09-30[Labor/Policy 2027-09] ; AI-displacement-specific retraining p [236_003] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updatespending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.747manifoldWill I lose my current job by the end of 2026?23%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.671manifoldWill the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?67%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.670manifold3rd largest company end of June 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.667manifoldWill US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?29%mentionspending2026-06-04
0.664manifold3rd largest company end of July 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.663manifold3rd largest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.655manifold2nd largest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.651manifoldLargest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.647manifoldWill the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?60%mentionspending2026-06-02
0.634manifoldWill the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?82%mentionspending2026-06-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we're here in 2026. Uh I do think the jobs are going to get whisked away uh in a lot of these firms and that family is real.",
  "conv_cues": "I do think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "1.2M+ job cuts announced in 2025 with 4.5% citing AI",
      "source": "https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance — HBR layoffs report",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://hbr.org/2026/01/companies-are-laying-off-workers-because-of-ais-potential-not-its-performance",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Challenger / BLS data confirms >1.2M job cuts in 2025 with >=55K citing AI as direct cause"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "McKinsey cuts 200 tech/support staff (firing precedent)",
      "source": "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/mckinsey-layoffs-2026-ai-white-collar-consulting — McKinsey 200 cuts",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/mckinsey-layoffs-2026-ai-white-collar-consulting",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "McKinsey announces ~200 technology/support layoffs explicitly attributed to generative-AI displacement, with signals of further non-client cuts"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BlackRock cuts 250 jobs (~1% of workforce) in 3rd round",
      "source": "https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/blackrock-layoffs-2026 — BlackRock 3rd round",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/blackrock-layoffs-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BlackRock announces ~250 job cuts (~1% of workforce) — third such round in a year, indicating sustained AI-driven trim"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "247_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
   
... (truncated)