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230_036predictionLabor/Jobsjobs

New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
40.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 0
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers. | So in this chapter we lay out lots of new job opportunities, career opportunities that that will be available to humans, at least unaded humans. So target designers for example or data rights brokers people who are involved in shaping the targeting systems and shaping how we aim fire and verify super intelligence towards the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
So in this chapter we lay out lots of new job opportunities, career opportunities that that will be available to humans, at least unaded humans. So target designers for example or data rights brokers people who are involved in shaping the targeting systems and shaping how we aim fire and verify super intelligence towards the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-04-30hitPrompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth)
    How: Industry job-tracking source (LinkedIn, Coursera, Index.dev) shows Prompt Engineer category with ≥100% YoY growth and salary range $60-115k+
    Source: https://www.lorienglobal.com/insights/emerging-ai-jobs-in-demandconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Prompt Engineer = the closest 2026 analog to Wissner-Gross's 'targeting system shapers'.
  2. 2026-04-30hitContext Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineer
    How: Multiple industry sources track Context Engineer + RAG Engineer as separately listed roles with distinct skills/salary bands
    Source: https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547conf 90%
    Notes: Context Engineer/RAG Engineer roles ground LLMs in trusted data — direct analog to 'data rights brokers'.
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingChief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companies
    How: ≥30% of S&P 500 companies have a Chief AI Officer role (or equivalent CAIRO/CAIO title) reporting to CEO
    Source: https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547conf 65%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingData-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial category
    How: At least 3 companies launch with primary business model as 'data-rights broker' / 'AI training data licensing intermediary' with $50M+ revenue
    Source: Wissner-Gross 'data rights brokers' framing; current trajectory of LLM training data licensing marketconf 50%
    Notes: Closer to Wissner-Gross's specific framing.
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2030-11-30pendingBLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET database
    How: US Bureau of Labor Statistics O*NET adds at least 5 net-new AI-specific job classifications (prompt engineer, RAG engineer, AI ethicist, etc.)
    Source: BLS O*NET classification trajectory; current emerging AI rolesconf 50%
    Notes: Cascade — government statistical recognition = realization of Wissner-Gross's 'growth industry from a job perspective' claim.

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.9%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.1%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 43.9% → 42.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.9%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 43.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialPeter Diamandis
71.4%0.5000.050-0.041
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.031
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.024
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.500-0.021
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050-0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

ADUSCOURDOCNFROGGTLBINODPLROLSPIRSRFMUDMYTEAMNFLXPLTRRDDTUBERAMZNBABASPOTGDDYGOOGLMETAMSFT

Adverse (6)

RHIBXPSLGMANKFYTNET

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "lots of new job opportunities... target designers... data rights brokers... This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.",
  "to_year": 2033,
  "verbatim": "So in this chapter we lay out lots of new job opportunities, career opportunities that that will be available to humans, at least unaded humans. So target designers for example or data rights brokers people who are involved in shaping the targeting systems and shaping how we aim fire and verify super intelligence towards the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.",
  "conv_cues": "will be available; going to be a growth industry",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "early 2030s / future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "247_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth)",
      "notes": "HIT — Prompt Engineer = the closest 2026 analog to Wissner-Gross's 'targeting system shapers'.",
      "source": "https://www.lorienglobal.com/insights/emerging-ai-jobs-in-demand",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.lorienglobal.com/insights/emerging-ai-jobs-in-demand",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry job-tracking source (LinkedIn, Coursera, Index.dev) shows Prompt Engineer category with ≥100% YoY growth and salary range $60-115k+"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineer",
      "notes": "Context Engineer/RAG Engineer roles ground LLMs in trusted data — direct analog to 'data rights brokers'.",
      "source": "https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      
... (truncated)