New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers. | So in this chapter we lay out lots of new job opportunities, career opportunities that that will be available to humans, at least unaded humans. So target designers for example or data rights brokers people who are involved in shaping the targeting systems and shaping how we aim fire and verify super intelligence towards the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
So in this chapter we lay out lots of new job opportunities, career opportunities that that will be available to humans, at least unaded humans. So target designers for example or data rights brokers people who are involved in shaping the targeting systems and shaping how we aim fire and verify super intelligence towards the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-30hitPrompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth)How: Industry job-tracking source (LinkedIn, Coursera, Index.dev) shows Prompt Engineer category with ≥100% YoY growth and salary range $60-115k+Source: https://www.lorienglobal.com/insights/emerging-ai-jobs-in-demandconf 95%Notes: HIT — Prompt Engineer = the closest 2026 analog to Wissner-Gross's 'targeting system shapers'.
- 2026-04-30hitContext Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineerHow: Multiple industry sources track Context Engineer + RAG Engineer as separately listed roles with distinct skills/salary bandsSource: https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547conf 90%Notes: Context Engineer/RAG Engineer roles ground LLMs in trusted data — direct analog to 'data rights brokers'.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingChief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companiesHow: ≥30% of S&P 500 companies have a Chief AI Officer role (or equivalent CAIRO/CAIO title) reporting to CEOSource: https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547conf 65%
- 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingData-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial categoryHow: At least 3 companies launch with primary business model as 'data-rights broker' / 'AI training data licensing intermediary' with $50M+ revenueSource: Wissner-Gross 'data rights brokers' framing; current trajectory of LLM training data licensing marketconf 50%Notes: Closer to Wissner-Gross's specific framing.
- 2027-06-01 → 2030-11-30pendingBLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET databaseHow: US Bureau of Labor Statistics O*NET adds at least 5 net-new AI-specific job classifications (prompt engineer, RAG engineer, AI ethicist, etc.)Source: BLS O*NET classification trajectory; current emerging AI rolesconf 50%Notes: Cascade — government statistical recognition = realization of Wissner-Gross's 'growth industry from a job perspective' claim.
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.021 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.016 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "lots of new job opportunities... target designers... data rights brokers... This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.",
"to_year": 2033,
"verbatim": "So in this chapter we lay out lots of new job opportunities, career opportunities that that will be available to humans, at least unaded humans. So target designers for example or data rights brokers people who are involved in shaping the targeting systems and shaping how we aim fire and verify super intelligence towards the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is going to be a growth industry from a job perspective.",
"conv_cues": "will be available; going to be a growth industry",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "early 2030s / future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
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"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
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"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "247_058",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth)",
"notes": "HIT — Prompt Engineer = the closest 2026 analog to Wissner-Gross's 'targeting system shapers'.",
"source": "https://www.lorienglobal.com/insights/emerging-ai-jobs-in-demand",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.lorienglobal.com/insights/emerging-ai-jobs-in-demand",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Industry job-tracking source (LinkedIn, Coursera, Index.dev) shows Prompt Engineer category with ≥100% YoY growth and salary range $60-115k+"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineer",
"notes": "Context Engineer/RAG Engineer roles ground LLMs in trusted data — direct analog to 'data rights brokers'.",
"source": "https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://odsc.medium.com/from-context-engineers-to-chief-ai-officers-emerging-ai-job-roles-for-2026-9f757603f547",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
... (truncated)