Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source
Prediction text
Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything. | xAI capability release calendar
Key catalyst: xAI capability release calendar
Watch events: Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)
Verbatim quote
I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything.
Resolution evidence
Grok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "miss",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 0,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 0,
"delta_to_outcome": -0.31014,
"inside_posterior": 0.31014,
"validation_notes": "Grok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months.",
"validation_status": "miss",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.31014,
"resolution_evidence": "Grok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.350 | -0.053 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.047 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.350 | -0.038 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_014 The consulting industry will go through the roof as consulta — Dave Blundin | 72.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.419 |
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.410 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.367 |
| prereq | 231_050 New economy built with AI agents will work around old econom — Dave Blundin | 53.4% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.295 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.181 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | miss | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Grok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.649 | manifold | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June? | 41% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.639 | manifold | When will Codex hit 6M WAUs? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.638 | manifold | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026? | 9% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.618 | manifold | By when will New Glenn next launch? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.606 | polymarket | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-26 |
| 0.605 | polymarket | Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? | 100% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-06 |
| 0.603 | github_release | facebookresearch/map-anything v1.1.2 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
| 0.583 | github_release | facebookresearch/hydra v1.3.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2022-12-21 |
| 0.577 | github_release | facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2020-09-03 |
| 0.573 | github_release | facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0.dev6 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-04-28 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "Based on Elon Musk's statement cited by Dave",
"context": "I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything.",
"to_year": 2026,
"cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
"verbatim": "I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything.",
"conv_cues": "Elon told us; my understanding",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "March 2026",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "event",
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"attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
"episode_num": 231,
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"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.147821+00:00",
"source_refs": "seekingalpha.com; forklog.com",
"target_date": "2026-03-15",
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"episode_date": "2026-02-18",
"key_catalyst": "xAI capability release calendar",
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"episode_title": "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231",
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"consensus_size": 11,
"futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (delayed to H2-2026)",
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"total_mentions": 2,
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"ps_cluster_tags": [
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],
"report_evidence": "MISSED-DATE-DELAYED: Grok 5 did not launch in March as predicted. Digital Optimus (xAI Grok System 2) integration with Tesla targeted late 2026.",
"active_end_month": "2026-03",
"recent_statement": "April 18 2026 Ep 248: '100x year will blow away prediction - 100x by summer'. March 5 2026 Ep 235: 'Anthropic will hit $1T revenue by 2029-2030, first company in history.' Feb 13 2026 Ep 230: 'Consulting industry will go through the roof.'",
"watch_events_raw": "Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)",
"cluster_avg_grade": 4.75,
"months_from_today": -1,
"probability_layer": "Lower (original Mar 2026); Medium (revised)",
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"resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
"track_record_grade": "B+",
"track_record_notes": "MIT/Link Ventures investor with strong pattern recognition on AI infrastructure trends. No long public track record pre-2023; judgment best treated as high-quality operator signal, not independent forecast.",
"flag_near_term_2027": true,
"flag_high_conviction": false,
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:48.800538+00:00",
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"validation_status_raw": "MISSED-DATE-DELAYED",
"composite_signal_score": 15.75,
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"
... (truncated)