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231_002predictionAIAI-scaling

Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
35.0%
Current probability
29.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
miss
Window
2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything. | xAI capability release calendar

Key catalyst: xAI capability release calendar

Watch events: Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything.

Resolution evidence

Status: miss

Grok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 35%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 29.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 30%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z29.8%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 31.0% → 29.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z31.0%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 32.6% → 31.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z32.6%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 35.0% → 32.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z0.0%-31.0pp
resolution_terminal miss outcome=0.0 pre_resolution=0.310
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "miss",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 0,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 0,
  "delta_to_outcome": -0.31014,
  "inside_posterior": 0.31014,
  "validation_notes": "Grok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months.",
  "validation_status": "miss",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.31014,
  "resolution_evidence": "Grok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.350-0.053
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.3500.050-0.047
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.3500.050-0.046
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.350-0.038
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.3500.050-0.025

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_014
The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultaDave Blundin
72.3%0.9200.050-0.419
prereq247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialPeter Diamandis
71.4%0.9200.050-0.410
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.9200.050-0.367
prereq231_050
New economy built with AI agents will work around old economDave Blundin
53.4%0.7000.050-0.295
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.181

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq230_014The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.Labor/Jobs
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereq231_050New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.Macro/Economy

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29missthesis_timeline_v1.0_importGrok 5 missed March 2026 target per Polymarket (33% by June 30). Q2 2026 consensus. Dave's implicit March timing off by ~3 months.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.649manifoldWill Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?41%mentionspending2026-05-14
0.639manifoldWhen will Codex hit 6M WAUs?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.638manifoldWill Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?9%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.618manifoldBy when will New Glenn next launch?mentionspending2026-05-29
0.606polymarketWill MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?99%mentionspending2026-03-26
0.605polymarketWill MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?100%mentionspending2026-04-06
0.603github_releasefacebookresearch/map-anything v1.1.2mentionspending2026-05-30
0.583github_releasefacebookresearch/hydra v1.3.1mentionspending2022-12-21
0.577github_releasefacebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0mentionspending2020-09-03
0.573github_releasefacebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0.dev6mentionspending2021-04-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Based on Elon Musk's statement cited by Dave",
  "context": "I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
  "verbatim": "I haven't felt any great compulsion to try 4.2 cuz cuz you know Elon told us five is coming in March anyway. But my understanding was that five is a massive massive expansion in every way you know in training set size in parameter count everything.",
  "conv_cues": "Elon told us; my understanding",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "March 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.",
      "status": "miss",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "231_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_050",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-19",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 2,
  "attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
  "episode_num": 231,
  "granularity": "MONTH_YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.147821+00:00",
  "source_refs": "seekingalpha.com; forklog.com",
  "target_date": "2026-03-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-02-18",
  "key_catalyst": "xAI capability release calendar",
  "parse_method": "MONTH_YEAR parsed",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
  "flag_repeated": true,
  "in_5yr_window": false,
  "appears_in_eps": "231, 246",
  "consensus_size": 11,
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (delayed to H2-2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 2,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C4",
    "C5"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "MISSED-DATE-DELAYED: Grok 5 did not launch in March as predicted. Digital Optimus (xAI Grok System 2) integration with Tesla targeted late 2026.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-03",
  "recent_statement": "April 18 2026 Ep 248: '100x year will blow away prediction - 100x by summer'. March 5 2026 Ep 235: 'Anthropic will hit $1T revenue by 2029-2030, first company in history.' Feb 13 2026 Ep 230: 'Consulting industry will go through the roof.'",
  "watch_events_raw": "Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)",
  "cluster_avg_grade": 4.75,
  "months_from_today": -1,
  "probability_layer": "Lower (original Mar 2026); Medium (revised)",
  "repeat_cluster_id": "C003",
  "active_start_month": "2026-03",
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "B+",
  "track_record_notes": "MIT/Link Ventures investor with strong pattern recognition on AI infrastructure trends. No long public track record pre-2023; judgment best treated as high-quality operator signal, not independent forecast.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": true,
  "flag_high_conviction": false,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:48.800538+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "decision": "keyword_filtered",
    "computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
    "best_id_unfiltered": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
    "best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.6523
  },
  "validation_status_raw": "MISSED-DATE-DELAYED",
  "composite_signal_score": 15.75,
  "flag_priority_watchlist": false,
  "flag_timeline_near_term": false,
  "
... (truncated)