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240_048predictionLabor/JobsAI-scaling

Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, uh, write code, do UI, and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year.

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, uh, write code, do UI, and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-03-05hitGPT-5.4 exceeds human OSWorld baseline at 75.0%
    How: OpenAI GPT-5.4 scores >=72.4% on OSWorld benchmark (human expert baseline), validating computer-use job displacement thesis
    Source: https://nerdleveltech.com/gpt-5-4-beats-humans-computer-use-ai-agents — GPT-5.4 OSWorld 75.0%conf 95%
  2. 2026-06-30pendingAI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy threshold
    How: Vendor benchmarks confirm AI agents handle data extraction, formula generation, cleaning, analysis, reporting at >=90% accuracy on standard enterprise tasks
    Source: https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/ai-agents-replace-spreadsheet-work — AI agents replacing spreadsheet workconf 82%
  3. 2026-09-30pendingJunior software dev hiring drops further from -20% baseline
    How: Revelio Labs / BLS data show junior software developer hiring down >=25% vs Jan 2023 baseline (currently -20%)
    Source: https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/ai-agentic-entry-level-jobs-disappearing-yale-celi-sonnenfeld/ — entry-level disappearingconf 70%
  4. 2026-12-31pending80% of enterprise apps embed AI agents
    How: IDC/Gartner reports >=80% of enterprise workplace applications embed AI copilots/agents performing data and UI tasks
    Source: https://joget.com/ai-agent-adoption-in-2026-what-the-analysts-data-shows/ — Joget 2026 AI agent adoptionconf 85%
  5. 2026-12-31pendingEnterprise AI agent investment exceeds $600B in 2026
    How: Industry analyst (Gartner/IDC/McKinsey) reports cumulative enterprise AI agent investment >$600B in 2026 calendar year
    Source: https://www.aibmag.com/featured-stories/why-ai-agent-ecosystems-are-enterprise-game-changers-in-2026/ — AIB Magconf 65%
  6. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCascade: Major Fortune 500 firm publicly attributes >5% workforce reduction to AI agents handling SQL/UI/coding work
    How: Fortune 500 firm explicitly cites AI agent automation of SQL/UI/coding/spreadsheet roles in earnings call as cause of >=5% workforce reduction
    Source: Cascade pattern from McKinsey 200-cut precedentconf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.4% → 50.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.4%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 53.4% → 51.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.4%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 56.1% → 53.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.1%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.083
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.082
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.067
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.044
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.043

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.026
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.017
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.014
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.003
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050+0.000

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31[Labor/Policy 2026-12] ires will be able to do exactly what se [240_048] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updatespending

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.574manifoldWill I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?31%mentionspending2026-04-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year. And I think what's different is if you had a job before and you lost that job, you would go work somewhere else. This is different in that AI will do that forever here forward.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, uh, write code, do UI, and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "End of 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.4 exceeds human OSWorld baseline at 75.0%",
      "source": "https://nerdleveltech.com/gpt-5-4-beats-humans-computer-use-ai-agents — GPT-5.4 OSWorld 75.0%",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://nerdleveltech.com/gpt-5-4-beats-humans-computer-use-ai-agents",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-05",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-05",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI GPT-5.4 scores >=72.4% on OSWorld benchmark (human expert baseline), validating computer-use job displacement thesis"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy threshold",
      "source": "https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/ai-agents-replace-spreadsheet-work — AI agents replacing spreadsheet work",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.82,
      "source_url": "https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/ai-agents-replace-spreadsheet-work",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Vendor benchmarks confirm AI agents handle data extraction, formula generation, cleaning, analysis, reporting at >=90% accuracy on standard enterprise tasks"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
     
... (truncated)