Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, uh, write code, do UI, and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year.
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, uh, write code, do UI, and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-05hitGPT-5.4 exceeds human OSWorld baseline at 75.0%How: OpenAI GPT-5.4 scores >=72.4% on OSWorld benchmark (human expert baseline), validating computer-use job displacement thesisSource: https://nerdleveltech.com/gpt-5-4-beats-humans-computer-use-ai-agents — GPT-5.4 OSWorld 75.0%conf 95%
- 2026-06-30pendingAI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy thresholdHow: Vendor benchmarks confirm AI agents handle data extraction, formula generation, cleaning, analysis, reporting at >=90% accuracy on standard enterprise tasksSource: https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/ai-agents-replace-spreadsheet-work — AI agents replacing spreadsheet workconf 82%
- 2026-09-30pendingJunior software dev hiring drops further from -20% baselineHow: Revelio Labs / BLS data show junior software developer hiring down >=25% vs Jan 2023 baseline (currently -20%)Source: https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/ai-agentic-entry-level-jobs-disappearing-yale-celi-sonnenfeld/ — entry-level disappearingconf 70%
- 2026-12-31pending80% of enterprise apps embed AI agentsHow: IDC/Gartner reports >=80% of enterprise workplace applications embed AI copilots/agents performing data and UI tasksSource: https://joget.com/ai-agent-adoption-in-2026-what-the-analysts-data-shows/ — Joget 2026 AI agent adoptionconf 85%
- 2026-12-31pendingEnterprise AI agent investment exceeds $600B in 2026How: Industry analyst (Gartner/IDC/McKinsey) reports cumulative enterprise AI agent investment >$600B in 2026 calendar yearSource: https://www.aibmag.com/featured-stories/why-ai-agent-ecosystems-are-enterprise-game-changers-in-2026/ — AIB Magconf 65%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCascade: Major Fortune 500 firm publicly attributes >5% workforce reduction to AI agents handling SQL/UI/coding workHow: Fortune 500 firm explicitly cites AI agent automation of SQL/UI/coding/spreadsheet roles in earnings call as cause of >=5% workforce reductionSource: Cascade pattern from McKinsey 200-cut precedentconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.083 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.082 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.067 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.044 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.043 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.026 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.017 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.014 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.003 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.000 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | [Labor/Policy 2026-12] ires will be able to do exactly what se [240_048] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates | pending |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.574 | manifold | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due? | 31% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year. And I think what's different is if you had a job before and you lost that job, you would go work somewhere else. This is different in that AI will do that forever here forward.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, uh, write code, do UI, and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year.",
"conv_cues": "going to be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "End of 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "GPT-5.4 exceeds human OSWorld baseline at 75.0%",
"source": "https://nerdleveltech.com/gpt-5-4-beats-humans-computer-use-ai-agents — GPT-5.4 OSWorld 75.0%",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://nerdleveltech.com/gpt-5-4-beats-humans-computer-use-ai-agents",
"expected_date": "2026-03-05",
"observed_date": "2026-03-05",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI GPT-5.4 scores >=72.4% on OSWorld benchmark (human expert baseline), validating computer-use job displacement thesis"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy threshold",
"source": "https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/ai-agents-replace-spreadsheet-work — AI agents replacing spreadsheet work",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.82,
"source_url": "https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/ai-agents-replace-spreadsheet-work",
"expected_date": "2026-06-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Vendor benchmarks confirm AI agents handle data extraction, formula generation, cleaning, analysis, reporting at >=90% accuracy on standard enterprise tasks"
},
{
"kind": "event",
... (truncated)