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242_025predictionReal EstateAI-scaling

60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
45.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | 60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... that becomes gardens. It becomes green land. It becomes parks.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"
60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... that becomes gardens. It becomes green land. It becomes parks.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst California city adopts robotaxi-anticipating parking-minimum elimination
    How: City council in LA County adopts ordinance citing autonomous vehicles to remove or substantially reduce parking minimums citywide — published city ordinance text
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingWaymo or Tesla Robotaxi reaches >100K rides/week in LA market
    How: Either operator publishes (or trade press confirms via leaked metrics) sustained weekly ride volume >100,000 in LA metro area for one full month
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%
  3. 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst major LA mall or commercial property converts >25% of lot to non-parking use
    How: Permit filing or completed redevelopment at a top-50 LA commercial property converting parking acreage to housing, parks, retail, or open space — confirmed via LADBS permit records or trade press
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2028-06-01 → 2030-12-31pendingLA residential vehicle ownership rate falls >15% from 2024 baseline
    How: California DMV registration data shows LA County registered vehicles per household dropping >15% vs 2024 baseline, sustained for 12 months
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 25%
  5. 2029-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingLA garden / parkland conversion permit volume exceeds 1,000 acres cumulative
    How: Cumulative LA County parking-to-greenspace conversions (LADBS + LA Parks Department) cross 1,000 acres in tracked permit data
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 20%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.4%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 45.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.5%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 46.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.5%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 51.2% → 48.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.079
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.5500.050-0.069
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5500.050-0.068
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.550-0.054
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.046

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.052
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.045
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.037
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.028
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.024

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.583manifoldResolves to vote percent in Los Angeles Mayor election on June 2mentionspending2026-05-31
0.561polymarketLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels64%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.559polymarketLos Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers24%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.559polymarketLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels99%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.558polymarketLos Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers36%mentionspending2026-05-30
0.557polymarketLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels56%mentionspending2026-05-10
0.557polymarketWill Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?1%mentionspending2025-10-09
0.554polymarketWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?24%mentionspending2025-10-09
0.545polymarketNew York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels74%mentionspending2026-04-27
0.539polymarketLos Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals56%mentionspending2026-04-26

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "60% of LA land",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... All of that gets released to become new",
  "verbatim": "60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... that becomes gardens. It becomes green land. It becomes parks.",
  "conv_cues": "becomes",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First California city adopts robotaxi-anticipating parking-minimum elimination",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "City council in LA County adopts ordinance citing autonomous vehicles to remove or substantially reduce parking minimums citywide — published city ordinance text"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo or Tesla Robotaxi reaches >100K rides/week in LA market",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-08-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Either operator publishes (or trade press confirms via leaked metrics) sustained weekly ride volume >100,000 in LA metro area for one full month"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First major LA mall or commercial property converts >25% of lot to non-parking use",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2028-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-1
... (truncated)