AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.

AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | We were already predicting or I was anyway that this is going to be 100x year uh just in terms of raw parameter count but I think that's the lower bound now looking at at how just the beginning of the year has progressed | End-2026 model parameter disclosures

Key catalyst: End-2026 model parameter disclosures

We were already predicting or I was anyway that this is going to be 100x year uh just in terms of raw parameter count but I think that's the lower bound now looking at at how just the beginning of the year has progressed

Same as 238_023. 100x as lower bound is improbable; 30x more realistic.

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  "context": "the the models are improving at this like 3x 4x reduction in parameter count 10x increases in intelligence you know just every time we podcast it's another step up and we were already predicting or I was anyway that this is going to be 100x year uh just in terms of raw parameter count but I think that's the lower bound now looking at at how just the beginning of the year has progressed",
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... (truncated)