First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election

First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | the first version of the social contract is just going to be the next election 3 years from now politicians saying well I'll give everyone $10,000 each well I'll give everyone 12,000 okay well if you're giving them 12 I'll give them 15,000

the first version of the social contract is just going to be the next election 3 years from now politicians saying well I'll give everyone $10,000 each well I'll give everyone 12,000 okay well if you're giving them 12 I'll give them 15,000

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$10K-$15K per person",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Citing Andrew Yang's view",
  "context": "the first version of the social contract is just going to be the next election 3 years from now politicians saying well I'll give everyone $10,000 each",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "the first version of the social contract is just going to be the next election 3 years from now politicians saying well I'll give everyone $10,000 each well I'll give everyone 12,000 okay well if you're giving them 12 I'll give them 15,000",
  "conv_cues": "going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2029,
  "timeframe": "2029 (3 years from now)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First major 2028 candidate launches campaign with explicit cash-transfer plank ($1k+/mo)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.72,
      "source_url": "https://jacobanders.org/",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FEC-registered presidential candidate (D or R primary, polling >5%) explicitly campaigns on UBI/guaranteed income >= $12,000/year"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "At least 3 declared 2028 presidential candidates publicly endorse cash-transfer programs",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_advocates_of_universal_basic_income",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Three or more declared 2028 candidates (combined D+R) campaign on direct cash transfers >= $10,000/yr to
... (truncated)