← Cockpit
247_035predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade

Predictor: Dario Amodei · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
70.0%
Current probability
38.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2030-01-01 – 2030-06-30
Edges in / out
82 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | I think Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
I think Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade.

Predictor: Dario Amodei

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0363
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dario Amodei is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 70%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 11 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAnthropic Claude for Healthcare reaches >100 health-system enterprise contracts
    How: Anthropic public disclosure or news reports confirm >=100 hospital systems, payers, or biotech contracts using Claude for Healthcare HIPAA-tier products
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAnthropic AI for Science publishes neurological-disease drug candidate publicly
    How: Anthropic AI for Science Program (announced 2025) publicly announces a neurological-disease drug candidate or open-source design produced through the program
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAI biology lab announces lab-validated mechanism breakthrough on amyloid/tau/synuclein
    How: Nature/Science/Cell publication from Anthropic, DeepMind Isomorphic, or peer documenting validated mechanistic breakthrough on neurodegenerative protein aggregation pathway
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI-discovered Alzheimer's or Parkinson's drug enters Phase 3 trial
    How: ClinicalTrials.gov registration of Phase 3 trial for an AI-discovered (Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic, BenevolentAI, Atomwise) compound for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, ALS, Huntington's, or major neurological condition
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst AI-designed drug approved for any neurological indication
    How: FDA, EMA, or PMDA full approval (not breakthrough designation) of a generative-AI-designed compound for a neurological disease indication
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z38.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 40.3% → 38.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.3%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 43.0% → 40.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.0%-5.0pp
Network propagation: 48.0% → 43.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.0%-8.2pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 48.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-13.8pp
Network propagation: 70.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.700+0.247
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.700+0.215
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.700+0.182
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.7000.050+0.157
prereq232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given cuDave Blundin
75.4%0.7000.050+0.146

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.078
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.076
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.064
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.048
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.047

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (82)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq232_021No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.Geopolitics
prereqSEM_047At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.AI/Hardware
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
prereqSEM_022FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.AI/Architecture
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq230_025The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.AI
prereq232_017AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.AI
prereq231_044Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years.Macro/Economy
prereq238_049Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028Auto/Transport
prereq242_013Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028Auto/Transport
prereq241_007Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)AI
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI
prereq232_019AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.AI
prereq232_050Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.AI
prereq242_049W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciateMacro/Economy
prereq242_019EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted versionAuto/Transport
prereq241_003Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yetAI
prereq230_041Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.AI
prereq238_061Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028Macro/Economy
prereq234_035Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential electionGeopolitics
prereq235_004Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.Labor/Jobs
prereq236_017Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quicklyMacro/Economy
prereq248_016ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.AI
prereq235_023Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.Energy
prereq231_008AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.AI
prereq236_004Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seenAI
prereq248_015Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.Labor/Jobs
prereq236_013Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Geopolitics
prereq247_060Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed baseAI
prereq230_005Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.AI
prereq231_029Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.Other
prereq231_036Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.Space
prereq235_009Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years.Defense
prereq229_025Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.Robotics
prereq230_017Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).Auto/Transport
prereq231_024Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.AI
prereq231_048Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.AI
prereq232_015AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years.AI
prereq232_023AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists.AI
prereq232_036AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.Biotech/Longevity
prereq234_002Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingAI
prereq235_021Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.Auto/Transport
prereq235_026Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years.Media/Ads
prereq236_011Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionGeopolitics
prereq237_010In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.Crypto
prereq247_018First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next electionMacro/Economy
prereq237_007Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.AI
prereq237_013Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction.Macro/Economy
prereq237_022Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years.AI
prereq238_006Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)Labor/Jobs
prereq234_037Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 yearsGeopolitics
prereq238_051If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)Markets/Stocks
prereq238_059Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes holdMacro/Economy
prereq234_013Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029Markets/Stocks
prereq232_056Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs.AI
prereq232_054SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.AI
prereq246_011Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.AI
prereq232_029Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_016Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions.AI
prereq232_002Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate.AI
prereq231_047Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.AI
prereq231_017A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector.AI
prereq231_007AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.AI
prereq230_008AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.AI
prereq229_032Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.AI
prereq229_003Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.Robotics
prereq248_026Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption.Other
prereq233_006Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.AI
prereq232_058Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.AI
prereq230_015For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).Labor/Jobs
prereq231_019Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.Other
prereq245_028Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fieldBiotech/Longevity
prereq248_002LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years.Space
prereq232_011Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.AI
prereq234_003Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralizedAI
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2030-12-31[Biology 2030-12] ouncements; Evo 2 clinical applications [247_035] Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade [247_031] Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)pending

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.550codex_research_packIsomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the cliniccorroboratespending2025-03-31

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "context": "Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "verbatim": "I think Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2030,
  "timeframe": "By end of decade (2030)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic Claude for Healthcare reaches >100 health-system enterprise contracts",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://dataphoenix.info/ai-could-double-the-human-lifespan-in-the-next-5-years-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic public disclosure or news reports confirm >=100 hospital systems, payers, or biotech contracts using Claude for Healthcare HIPAA-tier products"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Anthropic AI for Science publishes neurological-disease drug candidate publicly",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/ai-for-science-program",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic AI for Science Program (announced 2025) publicly announces a neurological-disease drug candidate or open-source design produced through the program"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI biology lab announces lab-validated mechanism breakthrough on amyloid/tau/synuclein",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-08-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Nature/Science/Cell publication from Anthropic, DeepMind Isomorphic, or peer documenting validated mechanistic breakthrough on neurodegenerative protein aggregation pathway"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-discovered Alzheimer's or Parkinson's drug enters Phase 3 trial",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.biotecnika.com/anthropic-ai-biotech-renaissance-dario-amodei/",
      "expected_date": "2027-11-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "ClinicalTrials.gov registration of Phase 3 trial for an AI-discovered (Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic, BenevolentAI, Atomwise) compound for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, ALS, Huntington's, or major neurological condition"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "229_032",
      "expected_date": "2027-11-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Competitors that can match 
... (truncated)