Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade
Predictor: Dario Amodei · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source
Prediction text
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | I think Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade.
Verbatim quote
I think Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade.
Predictor: Dario Amodei
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dario Amodei is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAnthropic Claude for Healthcare reaches >100 health-system enterprise contractsHow: Anthropic public disclosure or news reports confirm >=100 hospital systems, payers, or biotech contracts using Claude for Healthcare HIPAA-tier productsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAnthropic AI for Science publishes neurological-disease drug candidate publiclyHow: Anthropic AI for Science Program (announced 2025) publicly announces a neurological-disease drug candidate or open-source design produced through the programSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAI biology lab announces lab-validated mechanism breakthrough on amyloid/tau/synucleinHow: Nature/Science/Cell publication from Anthropic, DeepMind Isomorphic, or peer documenting validated mechanistic breakthrough on neurodegenerative protein aggregation pathwaySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI-discovered Alzheimer's or Parkinson's drug enters Phase 3 trialHow: ClinicalTrials.gov registration of Phase 3 trial for an AI-discovered (Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic, BenevolentAI, Atomwise) compound for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, ALS, Huntington's, or major neurological conditionSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst AI-designed drug approved for any neurological indicationHow: FDA, EMA, or PMDA full approval (not breakthrough designation) of a generative-AI-designed compound for a neurological disease indicationSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.247 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.215 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.182 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.157 |
| prereq | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given cu — Dave Blundin | 75.4% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.146 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.078 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.064 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.047 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (82)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | SEM_047 | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | AI/Hardware | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| prereq | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| prereq | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| prereq | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| prereq | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| prereq | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2030-12-31 | [Biology 2030-12] ouncements; Evo 2 clinical applications [247_035] Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade [247_031] Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | pending |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-03-31 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-CEO",
"context": "Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade",
"to_year": 2030,
"cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"verbatim": "I think Dorio also said he wanted to solve most or all neurological diseases by the end of the decade.",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2030,
"timeframe": "By end of decade (2030)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Anthropic Claude for Healthcare reaches >100 health-system enterprise contracts",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://dataphoenix.info/ai-could-double-the-human-lifespan-in-the-next-5-years-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei/",
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Anthropic public disclosure or news reports confirm >=100 hospital systems, payers, or biotech contracts using Claude for Healthcare HIPAA-tier products"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Anthropic AI for Science publishes neurological-disease drug candidate publicly",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/ai-for-science-program",
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Anthropic AI for Science Program (announced 2025) publicly announces a neurological-disease drug candidate or open-source design produced through the program"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI biology lab announces lab-validated mechanism breakthrough on amyloid/tau/synuclein",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2027-08-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Nature/Science/Cell publication from Anthropic, DeepMind Isomorphic, or peer documenting validated mechanistic breakthrough on neurodegenerative protein aggregation pathway"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI-discovered Alzheimer's or Parkinson's drug enters Phase 3 trial",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"source_url": "https://www.biotecnika.com/anthropic-ai-biotech-renaissance-dario-amodei/",
"expected_date": "2027-11-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "ClinicalTrials.gov registration of Phase 3 trial for an AI-discovered (Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic, BenevolentAI, Atomwise) compound for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, ALS, Huntington's, or major neurological condition"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "229_032",
"expected_date": "2027-11-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Competitors that can match
... (truncated)