Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.

Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | And so that if that's the marker, it's whenever somebody can do the Kurig test for a couple minutes with uncut film and I can like watch it closed loop do it with ban even not even just standing. Um that's you're two years away from where we're at.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

And so that if that's the marker, it's whenever somebody can do the Kurig test for a couple minutes with uncut film and I can like watch it closed loop do it with ban even not even just standing. Um that's you're two years away from where we're at.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2 years behind",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "work today and the work we showed two years ago has never been done in our mind whether any other human or company in history. And so that if that's the marker, it's whenever somebody can do the Kurig test for a couple minutes with uncut film and I can like watch it closed loop do it with ban even not even just standing. Um that's you're two years away from where we're at.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "And so that if that's the marker, it's whenever somebody can do the Kurig test for a couple minutes with uncut film and I can like watch it closed loop do it with ban even not even just standing. Um that's you're two years away from where we're at.",
  "conv_cues": "two years away",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "two years away (for rivals to catch up)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 ships with embedded palm cameras + visuomotor neural net (capability bar)",
      "notes": "HIT — Figure 03 reveal sets the capability bar competitors must now match for Adcock's two-year claim.",
      "source": "https://time.com/7324233/figure-03-robot-humanoid-reveal/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://time.com/7324233/figure-03-robot-humanoid-reveal/",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure 03 reveal documents palm-cam manipulation + closed-loop visuomotor stack shipping in production unit"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "No competitor demonstrates closed-loop coffee/Keurig task with uncut footage by mid-2026",
      "notes": "Adcock's specific bar — uncut closed-loop manipulation, not stitched demos.",
      "source": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/best-humanoid-robots",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/best-humanoid-robots",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Through Q3 2026, no Tesla Optimus / 1X / Agility /
... (truncated)