← Cockpit
235_002predictionAIAI-scaling

Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
74.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
Edges in / out
13 / 97
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | And exceed open AI this year. | Already validated Apr 2026

Key catalyst: Already validated Apr 2026

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
And exceed open AI this year.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Same event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 74.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 75%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z74.6%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 76.1% → 74.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z76.1%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 78.7% → 76.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z78.7%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 82.8% → 78.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z82.8%-4.4pp
Network propagation: 87.2% → 82.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z87.2%-4.8pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 87.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+17.2pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.828
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.17206999999999995,
  "inside_posterior": 0.82793,
  "validation_notes": "Same event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.82793,
  "resolution_evidence": "Same event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.920-0.130
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.9200.050-0.112
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.9200.050-0.111
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.087
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.920-0.087

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.365
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.257
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050+0.207
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050+0.176
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.174

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (13)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (97)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq242_015Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's licenseAuto/Transport
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq241_014The world a year from today will be nothing like the world todayAI
prereq231_005Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now).AI
prereq232_010Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing.AI
prereq232_017AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq235_033Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.Auto/Transport
prereq238_049Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028Auto/Transport
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_007Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)AI
prereq242_013Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_039Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.Auto/Transport
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereq236_013Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Geopolitics
prereq236_019Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerRobotics
prereq236_029Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulatedAI
prereq235_023Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.Energy
prereq231_036Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.Space
prereq231_033Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3.Space
prereq247_047Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030Energy
prereq231_030US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).Energy
prereq231_008AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.AI
prereq230_021Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.Robotics
prereq234_020AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030AI
prereq232_019AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.AI
prereq244_026Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035Labor/Jobs
prereq244_018In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choicesAuto/Transport
prereq243_003By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldAuto/Transport
prereq242_019EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted versionAuto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq238_016Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for PeterRobotics
prereq241_001We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AIAI
prereq246_046Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.Real Estate
prereq232_034Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware.AI
prereq236_011Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionGeopolitics
prereq232_023AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists.AI
prereq232_036AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.Biotech/Longevity
prereq244_027Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasksLabor/Jobs
prereq229_025Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.Robotics
prereq240_035Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035Energy
prereq244_029Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentEnergy
prereq231_048Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.AI
prereq232_008Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms.AI
prereq232_009Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it.AI
prereq235_021Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.Auto/Transport
prereq241_039In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull aheadAI
prereq232_002Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate.AI
prereq232_016Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions.AI
prereq232_039150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_054SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.AI
prereq230_008AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.AI
prereq232_056Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs.AI
prereq234_033David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthsRobotics
prereq234_037Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 yearsGeopolitics
prereq229_023First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.Robotics
prereq237_007Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.AI
prereq238_043A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years awayBiotech/Longevity
prereq238_059Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes holdMacro/Economy
prereq247_031Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Biotech/Longevity
prereq229_010Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.Robotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq229_009Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.Robotics
prereq229_021In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.Robotics
prereq230_038AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.AI
prereq230_042A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'.AI
prereq231_004The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.AI
prereq231_007AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.AI
prereq232_001Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline.AI
prereq246_041Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Energy
prereq242_047Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsBiotech/Longevity
prereq248_007We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI.AI
prereq248_002LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years.Space
prereq234_036Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominateLabor/Jobs
prereq234_003Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralizedAI
prereq230_023Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_048Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day.Space
prereq232_037Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck.Space
prereq246_042On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.AI
prereq235_020Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.Robotics
prereq247_044Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentsRobotics
prereq232_058Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.AI
prereq233_012AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood.AI
prereq232_011Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.AI
prereq233_006Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.AI
prereq232_024San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.Macro/Economy
prereq240_012Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few yearsAI
prereq238_033Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)Markets/Stocks
prereq233_004AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months.AI

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importSame event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "Anthropic revenue > OpenAI revenue",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "26 billion in revenue forecasted this year. And on its current trend, we'll be the first company to hit a trillion dollars in revenue in history by 2029, 2030. And exceed open AI this year. And exceed open AI this year. crazy numbers",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "And exceed open AI this year.",
  "conv_cues": "this year",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "229_021",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "229_025",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "229_009",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "230_008",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "229_023",
      "expected_date": "2028-11-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "229_010",
      "expected_date": "2038-10-01",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 4,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 235,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T2
... (truncated)