Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | And exceed open AI this year. | Already validated Apr 2026
Key catalyst: Already validated Apr 2026
Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
And exceed open AI this year.
Resolution evidence
Same event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.17206999999999995,
"inside_posterior": 0.82793,
"validation_notes": "Same event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.82793,
"resolution_evidence": "Same event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.130 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.112 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.111 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.087 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.087 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.365 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.257 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.207 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.176 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.174 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (13)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 | First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (97)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_015 | Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 241_014 | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_005 | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_010 | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_033 | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_029 | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_033 | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Space | — |
| prereq | 247_047 | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_021 | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_020 | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_026 | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_018 | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_003 | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_016 | Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_001 | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_046 | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 232_034 | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 244_027 | Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasks | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_035 | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 244_029 | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_008 | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_039 | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_039 | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_033 | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 229_023 | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_043 | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_031 | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 229_010 | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_009 | Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_021 | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_038 | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_042 | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_004 | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_001 | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_007 | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| prereq | 234_036 | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_023 | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_048 | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_037 | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_042 | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_020 | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_044 | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_012 | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_024 | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_012 | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_033 | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 233_004 | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. | AI | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Same event as 234_012 — Anthropic overtook OpenAI in revenue April 2026. Dave's 'this year' call confirmed 5 weeks after prediction. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "Anthropic revenue > OpenAI revenue",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "26 billion in revenue forecasted this year. And on its current trend, we'll be the first company to hit a trillion dollars in revenue in history by 2029, 2030. And exceed open AI this year. And exceed open AI this year. crazy numbers",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "And exceed open AI this year.",
"conv_cues": "this year",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
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"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "229_021",
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "229_025",
"expected_date": "2028-06-04",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "229_009",
"expected_date": "2028-06-06",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "230_008",
"expected_date": "2028-06-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "229_023",
"expected_date": "2028-11-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 6,
"source_id": "229_010",
"expected_date": "2038-10-01",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 4,
"affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 235,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T2
... (truncated)