Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for. This is a result out of 21st century medicine, a startup that's focusing on reversible cryopreservation technologies.
Watch events: Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCI
Verbatim quote
This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for. This is a result out of 21st century medicine, a startup that's focusing on reversible cryopreservation technologies.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiativeHow: NIH NHLBI, ARPA-H, or comparable agency announces >=$50M aggregate funding round specifically targeted at organ banking via vitrification — confirmed via grants.nih.gov, agency press release, or principal investigator announcementSource: llm_enrichedconf 55%
- 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingReversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipientHow: Peer-reviewed publication (Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM) or NIH-registered clinical announcement reporting successful transplantation of a vitrified-and-rewarmed mammalian organ (kidney, heart, liver) into a live recipient with confirmed viability >30 daysSource: llm_enrichedconf 45%
- 2027-01-01 → 2030-06-30pending21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrificationHow: Peer-reviewed paper documenting reversible vitrification (cryoprotectant load + cool below glass transition + rewarm) of whole pig, primate, or canine brain with measurable post-rewarm electrical activity OR validated ultrastructural integrity preservedSource: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-06-30pendingFDA opens pre-IND track for vitrified-organ transplant trialHow: FDA CBER or CDER publishes guidance, opens pre-IND meeting docket, or grants IND for a vitrified-organ transplant clinical trial — confirmed via FDA dockets, ClinicalTrials.gov, or sponsor press releaseSource: llm_enrichedconf 30%
- 2030-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingFirst UNOS-listed transplant using cryopreserved organHow: UNOS / OPTN registry or peer-reviewed publication reports first US transplant of a cryopreserved-then-rewarmed organ in a clinical (non-experimental) setting with patient survival >=90 daysSource: llm_enrichedconf 20%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.059 |
| prereq | SEM_005 Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distr — Sam Altman | 72.3% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.035 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.028 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.084 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.083 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.070 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.053 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2030-06-30 | [Biology 2030-06] [230_023] Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCI | pending |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for... as this technology matures, it becomes uh really, you know, a backup plan.",
"to_year": 2035,
"verbatim": "This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for. This is a result out of 21st century medicine, a startup that's focusing on reversible cryopreservation technologies.",
"conv_cues": "key advance; nearing",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "maturing technology",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "ATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiative",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2027-09-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "NIH NHLBI, ARPA-H, or comparable agency announces >=$50M aggregate funding round specifically targeted at organ banking via vitrification — confirmed via grants.nih.gov, agency press release, or principal investigator announcement"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_005",
"expected_date": "2028-02-09",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Reversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipient",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2028-07-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2029-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed publication (Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM) or NIH-registered clinical announcement reporting successful transplantation of a vitrified-and-rewarmed mammalian organ (kidney, heart, liver) into a live recipient with confirmed viability >30 days"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrification",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
... (truncated)