← Cockpit
230_023predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
37.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for. This is a result out of 21st century medicine, a startup that's focusing on reversible cryopreservation technologies.

Watch events: Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCI

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for. This is a result out of 21st century medicine, a startup that's focusing on reversible cryopreservation technologies.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiative
    How: NIH NHLBI, ARPA-H, or comparable agency announces >=$50M aggregate funding round specifically targeted at organ banking via vitrification — confirmed via grants.nih.gov, agency press release, or principal investigator announcement
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
  2. 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingReversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipient
    How: Peer-reviewed publication (Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM) or NIH-registered clinical announcement reporting successful transplantation of a vitrified-and-rewarmed mammalian organ (kidney, heart, liver) into a live recipient with confirmed viability >30 days
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2030-06-30pending21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrification
    How: Peer-reviewed paper documenting reversible vitrification (cryoprotectant load + cool below glass transition + rewarm) of whole pig, primate, or canine brain with measurable post-rewarm electrical activity OR validated ultrastructural integrity preserved
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2030-06-30pendingFDA opens pre-IND track for vitrified-organ transplant trial
    How: FDA CBER or CDER publishes guidance, opens pre-IND meeting docket, or grants IND for a vitrified-organ transplant clinical trial — confirmed via FDA dockets, ClinicalTrials.gov, or sponsor press release
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 30%
  5. 2030-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingFirst UNOS-listed transplant using cryopreserved organ
    How: UNOS / OPTN registry or peer-reviewed publication reports first US transplant of a cryopreserved-then-rewarmed organ in a clinical (non-experimental) setting with patient survival >=90 days
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 20%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 37%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.5%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 38.5% → 37.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.5%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 38.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.0%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 42.0% → 40.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.0%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.4500.050-0.059
prereqSEM_005
Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distrSam Altman
72.3%0.4500.050-0.056
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.035
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.4500.050-0.030
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.028

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.084
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.083
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.070
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.053
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.052

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2030-06-30[Biology 2030-06] [230_023] Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCIpending

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for... as this technology matures, it becomes uh really, you know, a backup plan.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "This is a key advance that many in the field of cryionics have been waiting for. This is a result out of 21st century medicine, a startup that's focusing on reversible cryopreservation technologies.",
  "conv_cues": "key advance; nearing",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "maturing technology",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiative",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NIH NHLBI, ARPA-H, or comparable agency announces >=$50M aggregate funding round specifically targeted at organ banking via vitrification — confirmed via grants.nih.gov, agency press release, or principal investigator announcement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Reversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipient",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed publication (Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM) or NIH-registered clinical announcement reporting successful transplantation of a vitrified-and-rewarmed mammalian organ (kidney, heart, liver) into a live recipient with confirmed viability >30 days"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrification",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,

... (truncated)