AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source
Prediction text
AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen.
Verbatim quote
This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen.
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-07-04hitFederal AI moratorium blocking state AI laws fails in Senate (July 2025)How: Senate strips 10-year ban on state AI regulation from federal budget bill before signingSource: https://www.governing.com/policy/senate-kills-ban-on-state-and-local-ai-lawsconf 99%Notes: HIT — federal preemption attempt to STOP state AI laws failed. Validates Schmidt: AI regulation can't even be paused at federal level.
- 2025-07-01hitTrump administration approves NVIDIA H200 sales to China (chip export resumption)How: US government reverses AI chip export ban allowing NVIDIA H200 GPU sales to ChinaSource: https://builtin.com/articles/trump-lifts-ai-chip-ban-china-nvidiaconf 95%Notes: HIT — even strongest containment lever reversed. Schmidt's 'too many countries, too many incentives' thesis directly supported.
- 2026-01-01hitCalifornia AB 2013 takes effect (training data disclosure) — first major state regulationHow: California AB 2013 effective date triggers mandatory training data disclosure for genAI developersSource: https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/states-to-lead-ai-workplace-regulation-after-federal-ban-failsconf 99%Notes: Regulation arrives but is disclosure-only, not stop-development. AI continues.
- 2026-03-31hitSanders/AOC AI Data Center Moratorium Act introduced (March 2026) — does NOT passHow: AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) introduced but fails to advance to floor vote in 119th CongressSource: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-ocasio-cortez-announce-ai-data-center-moratorium-act/conf 85%Notes: Bill exists but lacks majority support. Confirms inability to halt AI infrastructure buildout.
- 2026-12-31 → 2028-12-31pendingCumulative global AI capex exceeds $1.5T in 2026-2028 windowHow: Sum of disclosed AI capex across hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN), sovereign funds, and Nvidia-customer datacenter announcements exceeds $1.5T cumulativeSource: Hyperscaler 10-K capex disclosures, IEA AI/Energy Outlook 2026conf 80%Notes: Cascade signal — once capex is committed, the build cannot be paused or reversed.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.099 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.061 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.042 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.035 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.032 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.017 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.012 |
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.004 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y | No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| correlate | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 | AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen. So, what does this mean? It means great great solutions for healthcare, new drugs, better energy solutions, better power distribution. It also means that it can be used for bad.",
"to_year": 2031,
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen.",
"conv_cues": "going to happen; not going to get prevented; not going to get stopped",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "unspecified",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Federal AI moratorium blocking state AI laws fails in Senate (July 2025)",
"notes": "HIT — federal preemption attempt to STOP state AI laws failed. Validates Schmidt: AI regulation can't even be paused at federal level.",
"source": "https://www.governing.com/policy/senate-kills-ban-on-state-and-local-ai-laws",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.governing.com/policy/senate-kills-ban-on-state-and-local-ai-laws",
"expected_date": "2025-07-04",
"observed_date": "2025-07-04",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Senate strips 10-year ban on state AI regulation from federal budget bill before signing"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Trump administration approves NVIDIA H200 sales to China (chip export resumption)",
"notes": "HIT — even strongest containment lever reversed. Schmidt's 'too many countries, too many incentives' thesis directly supported.",
"source": "https://builtin.com/articles/trump-lifts-ai-chip-ban-china-nvidia",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://builtin.com/articles/trump-lifts-ai-chip-ban-china-nvidia",
"expected_date": "2025-11-29",
"observed_date": "2025-07-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-04-30",
"from": "2025-07-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "US government reverses AI chip export ban allowing NVIDIA H200 GPU sales to China"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "California AB 2013 takes effect (training data disclosure) — first major state regulation",
"notes": "Regulation arrives but is disclosure-only, not stop-development. AI continues.",
"source": "https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/states-to-lead-ai-workplace-regulation-after-federal-ban-fails",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/states-to-lead-ai-workplace-regulation-after-federal-ban-fails",
"expected_date": "2026-01-01",
"observed_date": "2026-01-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "California AB 2013 effective date triggers mandatory training data disclosure for genAI developers"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Sanders/AOC AI Data Center Moratorium Act introduced (March 2026) — does NOT pass",
"notes": "Bill exists but lacks majority support. Confirms inability to halt AI infrastructure buildout.",
"source": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-ocasio-cortez-announce-ai-data-center-moratorium-act/",
"status": "hit",
"wei
... (truncated)