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232_017predictionAIAI-timing

AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
54.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen.

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 54.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 9 fired ✓ · 2 pending
  1. 2025-07-04hitFederal AI moratorium blocking state AI laws fails in Senate (July 2025)
    How: Senate strips 10-year ban on state AI regulation from federal budget bill before signing
    Source: https://www.governing.com/policy/senate-kills-ban-on-state-and-local-ai-lawsconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — federal preemption attempt to STOP state AI laws failed. Validates Schmidt: AI regulation can't even be paused at federal level.
  2. 2025-07-01hitTrump administration approves NVIDIA H200 sales to China (chip export resumption)
    How: US government reverses AI chip export ban allowing NVIDIA H200 GPU sales to China
    Source: https://builtin.com/articles/trump-lifts-ai-chip-ban-china-nvidiaconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — even strongest containment lever reversed. Schmidt's 'too many countries, too many incentives' thesis directly supported.
  3. 2026-01-01hitCalifornia AB 2013 takes effect (training data disclosure) — first major state regulation
    How: California AB 2013 effective date triggers mandatory training data disclosure for genAI developers
    Source: https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/states-to-lead-ai-workplace-regulation-after-federal-ban-failsconf 99%
    Notes: Regulation arrives but is disclosure-only, not stop-development. AI continues.
  4. 2026-03-31hitSanders/AOC AI Data Center Moratorium Act introduced (March 2026) — does NOT pass
    How: AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) introduced but fails to advance to floor vote in 119th Congress
    Source: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-ocasio-cortez-announce-ai-data-center-moratorium-act/conf 85%
    Notes: Bill exists but lacks majority support. Confirms inability to halt AI infrastructure buildout.
  5. 2027-12-31pendingScenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027
  6. 2026-12-31 → 2028-12-31pendingCumulative global AI capex exceeds $1.5T in 2026-2028 window
    How: Sum of disclosed AI capex across hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN), sovereign funds, and Nvidia-customer datacenter announcements exceeds $1.5T cumulative
    Source: Hyperscaler 10-K capex disclosures, IEA AI/Energy Outlook 2026conf 80%
    Notes: Cascade signal — once capex is committed, the build cannot be paused or reversed.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z54.8%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 56.1% → 54.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.1%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 58.1% → 56.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6500.050-0.099
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.061
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.6500.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.052
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.042

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.035
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.032
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.017
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050+0.012
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.004

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_NO_AI_PAUSE_5YNo major AI pause through 2031ai_regulatory_pause
correlateS_AI_PAUSE_2027AI pause beginning 2027ai_regulatory_pause
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen. So, what does this mean? It means great great solutions for healthcare, new drugs, better energy solutions, better power distribution. It also means that it can be used for bad.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "This technology is going to happen. It's not going to get prevented. It's not going to get stopped. There's too many countries, too many people, too many incentives. It's going to happen.",
  "conv_cues": "going to happen; not going to get prevented; not going to get stopped",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Federal AI moratorium blocking state AI laws fails in Senate (July 2025)",
      "notes": "HIT — federal preemption attempt to STOP state AI laws failed. Validates Schmidt: AI regulation can't even be paused at federal level.",
      "source": "https://www.governing.com/policy/senate-kills-ban-on-state-and-local-ai-laws",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.governing.com/policy/senate-kills-ban-on-state-and-local-ai-laws",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-04",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-04",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Senate strips 10-year ban on state AI regulation from federal budget bill before signing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Trump administration approves NVIDIA H200 sales to China (chip export resumption)",
      "notes": "HIT — even strongest containment lever reversed. Schmidt's 'too many countries, too many incentives' thesis directly supported.",
      "source": "https://builtin.com/articles/trump-lifts-ai-chip-ban-china-nvidia",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://builtin.com/articles/trump-lifts-ai-chip-ban-china-nvidia",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-29",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2025-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "US government reverses AI chip export ban allowing NVIDIA H200 GPU sales to China"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "California AB 2013 takes effect (training data disclosure) — first major state regulation",
      "notes": "Regulation arrives but is disclosure-only, not stop-development. AI continues.",
      "source": "https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/states-to-lead-ai-workplace-regulation-after-federal-ban-fails",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/states-to-lead-ai-workplace-regulation-after-federal-ban-fails",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "California AB 2013 effective date triggers mandatory training data disclosure for genAI developers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sanders/AOC AI Data Center Moratorium Act introduced (March 2026) — does NOT pass",
      "notes": "Bill exists but lacks majority support. Confirms inability to halt AI infrastructure buildout.",
      "source": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-ocasio-cortez-announce-ai-data-center-moratorium-act/",
      "status": "hit",
      "wei
... (truncated)