AI pause beginning 2027
Prediction text
Post-election or post-incident pause.
Predictor calibration
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: regulatory_freeze_window
Major-country regulatory pause/moratorium on AI capability research lasting >6 months
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.
Prerequisites (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (15)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | 241_004 | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| correlate | COD_AI_003 | EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 246_055 | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 232_040 | Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_002 | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 247_014 | Politicization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 years | Geopolitics | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.638 | manifold | Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027? | 48% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.628 | manifold | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.625 | manifold | Which World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
| 0.621 | manifold | Will Kamala announce a run in 2028 | 40% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.619 | manifold | Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028? | 38% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-24 |
| 0.616 | polymarket | Trump out as President before 2027? | 10% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-05 |
| 0.614 | manifold | Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd? | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.612 | manifold | Will Jesus Christ Return before the 2028 election? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.609 | manifold | New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027? | 34% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.606 | manifold | Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026? | 26% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
Raw metadata
{
"fork_key": "pause",
"dimension": "ai_regulatory_pause",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "AI pause",
"family_order": 2,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}