No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source
Prediction text
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused and so react to the real reality.
Verbatim quote
the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused and so react to the real reality.
Resolution evidence
No AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.15575000000000006,
"inside_posterior": 0.84425,
"validation_notes": "No AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.84425,
"resolution_evidence": "No AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.120 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.119 |
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.096 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.095 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.079 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.155 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.150 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.146 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.141 |
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.120 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (14)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y | No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| correlate | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 | AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS | AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 | Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2029-12-31 | [Geopolitics 2029-12] [232_021] No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration [235_009] Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO | pending |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | No AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "I think you know if you if you listen to Eric's words closely he wasn't saying we couldn't pause it. He's saying that because we're in the middle of a allout arms race with China uh and we have we're only one year into a presidential administration. So the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused and so react to the real reality.",
"conv_cues": "no chance",
"direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "next three years",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "232_021",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "247_035",
"expected_date": "2030-04-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "246_017",
"expected_date": "2030-10-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "246_016",
"expected_date": "2034-09-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "240_036",
"expected_date": "2040-07-06",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "230_020",
"expected_date": "2063-06-21",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "Moonshots",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 232,
"granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.220
... (truncated)