← Cockpit
232_021predictionGeopoliticsAI-scaling

No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
75.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30
Edges in / out
14 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused and so react to the real reality.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused and so react to the real reality.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

No AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 75.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 75%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z75.4%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 77.1% → 75.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z77.1%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 79.9% → 77.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z79.9%-4.5pp
Network propagation: 84.4% → 79.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z84.4%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 87.9% → 84.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z87.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 87.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+15.6pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.844
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.15575000000000006,
  "inside_posterior": 0.84425,
  "validation_notes": "No AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.84425,
  "resolution_evidence": "No AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.9200.050-0.120
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.9200.050-0.119
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.920+0.096
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.920-0.095
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.079

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.155
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050+0.150
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050+0.146
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.141
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050+0.120

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (14)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_NO_AI_PAUSE_5YNo major AI pause through 2031ai_regulatory_pause
correlateS_AI_PAUSE_2027AI pause beginning 2027ai_regulatory_pause
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
correlateS_AI_PAUSE_2026Major-country AI pause beginning 2026ai_regulatory_pause
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2029-12-31[Geopolitics 2029-12] [232_021] No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration [235_009] Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPOpending

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importNo AI pause in next 3y — consistent with Trump admin stance and China race.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.720polymarketWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?33%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.700manifoldUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?23%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.658manifoldChina vs Japan Conflict before 2027?mentionspending2026-04-29
0.653polymarketWill Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?4%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.649polymarketWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?3%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.649polymarketWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?38%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.648manifoldWill Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?86%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.648polymarketWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?16%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.643polymarketWill Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?100%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.641polymarketWill Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?32%mentionspending2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I think you know if you if you listen to Eric's words closely he wasn't saying we couldn't pause it. He's saying that because we're in the middle of a allout arms race with China uh and we have we're only one year into a presidential administration. So the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "the it's going to happen in this next three years. So given the current administration and the current situation with China, there is no chance of it being paused and so react to the real reality.",
  "conv_cues": "no chance",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next three years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "232_021",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "247_035",
      "expected_date": "2030-04-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "246_017",
      "expected_date": "2030-10-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "246_016",
      "expected_date": "2034-09-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "240_036",
      "expected_date": "2040-07-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "230_020",
      "expected_date": "2063-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 232,
  "granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.220
... (truncated)