S_AI_PAUSE_2026scenarioai_regulatory_pause
Major-country AI pause beginning 2026
Prior probability
5.0%
Current probability
5.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 21
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
EU or US executive pause >6 months on frontier AI training.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: regulatory_freeze_window
Linked
Major-country regulatory pause/moratorium on AI capability research lasting >6 months
Base rate
5.0%
0/4 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 5%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (21)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | 229_013 | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_010 | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | AUT_017 | Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_002 | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_001 | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. | AI | — |
| correlate | COD_AI_003 | EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| correlate | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | COD_AI_004 | Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_013 | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. | AI | — |
| correlate | 237_003 | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_040 | Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| correlate | 247_052 | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 247_014 | Politicization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | AI_002 | Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_073 | AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_004 | AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_038 | Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (4)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.627 | manifold | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.606 | manifold | What countries will Donald Trump visit in the remainder of 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-25 |
| 0.568 | manifold | Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026 | 47% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.551 | manifold | Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Open event)? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "pause",
"dimension": "ai_regulatory_pause",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "AI pause",
"family_order": 1,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}