SEM_038predictionAI/AGIsuperintelligence

Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026.

Predictor: Elon Musk

Prior probability

12.0%

Current probability

19.3%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

2 / 2

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. | xAI Grok 5/6 capability releases

Key catalyst: xAI Grok 5/6 capability releases

Watch events: xAI Grok 5 / 6 releases; Musk quarterly AGI-timeline revisions

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Grok 5 missed Q1 2026 target per workbook. Frontier models (GPT-5, Claude Opus 4.7, Gemini 3) still below superintelligence threshold as defined (smarter than any human at anything).

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0142

excellent

Hits / Misses

1 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

33.3%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.579

All classes →

Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)

Base rate

20.0%

1/5 historical

Inside weight

—

Outside weight

—

no pull

inside 19.3% → blend 19.3% (Δ 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

9 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 19.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 4 overdue ⏱

2025-05-13overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2025-09-23overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2025-08-15hitMusk publicly claims Grok 5 has 10% probability of achieving AGI
How: Elon Musk publicly states (X post, interview) that Grok 5 has ~10% chance of being AGI
Source: https://cybernews.com/ai-news/grok-5-artificial-general-intelligence/conf 95%
Notes: HIT — Musk made this exact public claim. Anchors his original prediction's framing.
2026-02-02overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-03-31overduexAI announces Grok 5 with 6T parameters and AGI-class capability claims
How: xAI publicly announces Grok 5 with ≥6 trillion parameters trained on Colossus 2 gigawatt cluster
Source: https://www.nxcode.io/resources/news/grok-5-release-date-6t-parameters-agi-xai-complete-guide-2026conf 85%
Notes: Q1 2026 release confirmed by Musk; AGI claims from Musk himself with 10% probability.
2026-04-30hitFrontier capability ceiling visible: GPT-5/Mythos/Gemini 3/Grok 5 cluster on similar benchmarks
How: Industry benchmarking shows GPT-5.2, Claude Mythos, Gemini 3 Pro, Grok 5 all clustering near similar capability ceilings on professional benchmarks rather than one model being clearly superintelligent
Source: https://lmcouncil.ai/benchmarks — GPT-5/Claude/Gemini/Grok comparative benchmarksconf 85%
Notes: HIT — frontier models clustering on similar ceilings, suggesting Musk's '2025/2026' superintelligence is at minimum NOT obvious by mid-2026. Current_prob 0.12 looks well-calibrated.
2026-06-15pendingDigital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026.
2025-12-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndependent benchmark (METR / ARC-AGI / FrontierMath) characterizes a 2025-2026 model as superhuman across most professional domains
How: Frontier evaluation organization (METR, ARC-AGI, FrontierMath, HCAST) publishes an evaluation explicitly characterizing a 2025-2026 model as exceeding median expert performance across the majority of professional domains tested
Source: METR, ARC-AGI Foundation, Epoch AI, ML benchmarksconf 30%
Notes: Most likely status = MISS — most analysts agree no 2025/2026 release has cleared this bar; at-best partial superhuman in narrow domains.
2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMainstream consensus shifts to AGI/superintelligence post-2026 (2027-2030)
How: AI Index 2026 / 2027, Epoch AI public estimates, frontier-lab CEO public timelines converge on superintelligence arrival 2027-2030 range, post-dating Musk's 2025/2026 claim
Source: AI Index, Epoch AI, frontier lab timelinesconf 65%
Notes: Cascade — if mainstream consensus is 2027+, Musk's 2025/2026 prediction is effectively invalidated regardless of definitional debates.
2028-06-23pendingNick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.
2030-07-05pendingBy 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 19%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z19.3%+1.2pp

Network propagation: 18.1% → 19.3%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z18.1%+2.2pp

Network propagation: 15.9% → 18.1%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z15.9%+3.8pp

Network propagation: 12.1% → 15.9%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z12.1%+5.2pp

Network propagation: 6.9% → 12.1%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z6.9%-5.4pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.049 blend=0.069 LLR=-1.004 κ=0.64 w_in=0.77 agi_breakthrough_5y

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.3320688953629401,
  "kappa": 0.6429,
  "base_rate": 0.2,
  "predictor": "Elon Musk",
  "total_llr": -1.6218604324326575,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -1.9691882986533558,
  "bayes_factor": "2.7:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 76% inside / 23% outside (TRF=0.332, base_rate=0.200 from agi_breakthrough_5y)",
  "inside_prior": 0.12247609826683706,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 4,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6429,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2606735180027389,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-13",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6429,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2606735180027389,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-23",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6429,
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2606735180027389,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-02",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.546465,
      "label": "xAI announces Grok 5 with 6T parameters and AGI-class capability claims",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.nxcode.io/resources/news/grok-5-release-date-6t-parameters-agi-xai-complete-guide-2026",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.22157249030232803,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI publicly announces Grok 5 with ≥6 trillion parameters trained on Colossus 2 gigawatt cluster"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.7675517732459419,
  "outside_weight": 0.23244822675405807,
  "posterior_prob": 0.06888109321433843,
  "posterior_logit": -2.9727813429639003,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01,
  "inside_posterior": 0.04867077965842048,
  "blended_posterior": 0.06888109321433843,
  "reference_class_id": "agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -1.0035930443105447,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 2
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z12.2%-1.3pp

Network propagation: 13.6% → 12.2%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z13.6%+1.3pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.120 blend=0.136 w_in=0.77 agi_breakthrough_5y

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z12.2%-1.3pp

Network propagation: 13.6% → 12.2%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z13.6%+1.6pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.120 blend=0.136 w_in=0.76 agi_breakthrough_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	15.0%	0.050	0.120	-0.083

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	232_040 Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we'r — Nick Bostrom	31.7%	0.500	0.050	-0.178
prereq	CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels acr — Sam Altman	22.8%	0.350	0.050	-0.118

Ticker exposure

13 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (13)

BBAI NVDA GTLB SOUN AI META MSFT ORCL TCEHY AMZN BABA GOOGL IBM

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_AI_PAUSE_2026	Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	ai_regulatory_pause	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—

Dependents (2)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	232_040	Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.	AI	—
prereq	CMQ_003	By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.	AI	—

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.644	manifold	Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?	44%	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.632	polymarket	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	70%	mentions	pending	2026-01-11
0.621	manifold	Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?	59%	mentions	pending	2026-04-28
0.619	manifold	When will Indonesia announce the IMO 2026 Team?	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-27
0.614	gdelt	nyt connections today answers hints 30 april 2026	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.613	manifold	In which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-08
0.607	manifold	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?	74%	mentions	pending	2026-05-27
0.584	polymarket	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	65%	mentions	pending	2026-03-26
0.580	manifold	When will Romania movie distribuitors will confirm The Amazing Digital Circus?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.577	manifold	Wikipedia's article on xAi's successor to Grokipedia under title Encyclopedia Galactica by Christmas eve 2027?	9%	mentions	pending	2026-05-25

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "digital superintelligence",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Musk's hard-takeoff definition of digital superintelligence + 2025-2026 timeline = most aggressive near-term call on record.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "as early as; highly aggressive",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "2025-2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-13",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-23",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk publicly claims Grok 5 has 10% probability of achieving AGI",
      "notes": "HIT — Musk made this exact public claim. Anchors his original prediction's framing.",
      "source": "https://cybernews.com/ai-news/grok-5-artificial-general-intelligence/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://cybernews.com/ai-news/grok-5-artificial-general-intelligence/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-08-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Elon Musk publicly states (X post, interview) that Grok 5 has ~10% chance of being AGI"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-02",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xAI announces Grok 5 with 6T parameters and AGI-class capability claims",
      "notes": "Q1 2026 release confirmed by Musk; AGI claims from Musk himself with 10% probability.",
      "source": "https://www.nxcode.io/resources/news/grok-5-release-date-6t-parameters-agi-xai-complete-guide-2026",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.nxcode.io/resources/news/grok-5-release-date-6t-parameters-agi-xai-complete-guide-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI publicly announces Grok 5 with ≥6 trillion parameters trained on Colossus 2 gigawatt cluster"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier capability ceiling visible: GPT-5/Mythos/Gemini 3/Grok 5 cluster on similar benchmarks",
      "notes": "HIT — frontier models clustering on similar ceilings, suggesting Musk's '2025/2026' superintelligence is at minimum NOT obvious by mid-2026. Current_prob 0.12 looks well-calibrated.",
      "source": "https://lmcouncil.ai/benchmarks — GPT-5/Claude/Gemini/Grok comparative benchmarks",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://lmcouncil.ai/benchmarks",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry b
... (truncated)