Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.

Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. | Nick Bostonramm, who also in the past 24 or 48 hours put out a a wonderful essay that I'd recommend everyone read called Optimal Timing for Super Intelligence, argues that AI can and should be paused, but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.

Nick Bostonramm, who also in the past 24 or 48 hours put out a a wonderful essay that I'd recommend everyone read called Optimal Timing for Super Intelligence, argues that AI can and should be paused, but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.

Bostrom 'should pause at superintelligence threshold' — normative.

Beneficiaries (13)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "caveats": "Normative recommendation (should) and prognostication (can)",
  "context": "I I think Nick Bostonramm, who also in the past 24 or 48 hours put out a a wonderful essay that I'd recommend everyone read called Optimal Timing for Super Intelligence, argues that AI can and should be paused, but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "verbatim": "Nick Bostonramm, who also in the past 24 or 48 hours put out a a wonderful essay that I'd recommend everyone read called Optimal Timing for Super Intelligence, argues that AI can and should be paused, but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "when near super intelligence",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Nick Bostrom publishes 'Optimal Timing for Superintelligence' working paper arguing for swift-to-AGI then strategic pause",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "source_url": "https://nickbostrom.com/optimal.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Bostrom's named essay 'Optimal Timing for Superintelligence' published with thesis that pause is appropriate but only on the verge of superintelligence"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI takeoff/inflection is happening now",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "238_010",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "241_025",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "We are currently in AI hard takeoff",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "239_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.3,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "S_AI_PAUSE_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "237_023",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "241_057",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major-country (US, EU, China, UK) issues formal AI pause framework conditional on capability threshold",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "conf
... (truncated)