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241_025predictionSpaceAGI

Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
37.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 8
Tickers exposed
35

Prediction text

Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Elon's predictions were, you know, I think a launch per hour to populate the constellation he wanted

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
Elon's predictions were, you know, I think a launch per hour to populate the constellation he wanted

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-04-14hit1000th Starlink launch of 2026 milestone hit
    How: SpaceX confirms cumulative 2026 Starlink satellite count crosses 1,000 deployed in single year
    Source: https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-04-14conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — 1,000th Starlink launch of 2026 hit milestone April 2026.
  2. 2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30overdueSpaceX Starship V3 first flight test
    How: SpaceX successfully launches first Starship V3 (block upgrade with higher thrust/payload) test flight
    Source: https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-03-20conf 85%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingStarlink V3 deployment using Starship begins
    How: SpaceX deploys first Starlink V3 satellites (1+ Tbps capacity each) on Starship-Super Heavy
    Source: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/starlink-2026-whats-changing-and-what-it-means-for-youconf 60%
  4. 2026-12-31pendingSpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026
    How: SpaceX cumulative Falcon 9 launches in calendar 2026 reach >=140
    Source: https://orbysa.com/news/misc/2026-02-03-spacex-accelerates-ambitions-with-record-launch-cadence-and-strategic-innovations-in-early-2026 — Shotwell stated ~140-145 launchesconf 70%
  5. 2026-12-31pendingLaunch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week reality
    How: Even at year-end 2026, peak launch cadence < 1 per day, far below Musk's aspirational launch-per-hour target
    Source: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/starlink-2026-whats-changing-and-what-it-means-for-youconf 95%
    Notes: Aspirational target — actual cadence will likely fall well short of launch-per-hour even with V3.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-30T22:15:00Z37.8%-5.7pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Elon Musk",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.2622692285508546,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.43480596360251056,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.584375,
      "label": "SpaceX Starship V3 first flight test",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-03-20",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.23694367255070856,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-16",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX successfully launches first Starship V3 (block upgrade with higher thrust/payload) test flight"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3777256577822425,
  "posterior_logit": -0.49921290110156313,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01417,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3777256577822425,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3777256577822425,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.23694367255070856,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.5%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 44.9% → 43.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z44.9%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 47.0% → 44.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z47.0%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 49.8% → 47.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z49.8%-5.2pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 49.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

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53.0%0.5500.050-0.066
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78.1%0.5500.050+0.058

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

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prereq239_001
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37.7%0.6000.050-0.110
prereq235_024
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prereq238_058
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33.0%0.5000.050-0.102
prereq232_040
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31.7%0.5000.050-0.090
prereq241_043
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35.9%0.6500.050-0.072

Ticker exposure

35 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

BBAIGSATSOUNGTLBPLBKSYAIIRDMNVDARKLBASTSMSFTMETANOCORCLAMZNTCEHYGOOGLIBMBABABASHOPLHX

Adverse (7)

ACNCHGGCTSHFRSHIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq238_020Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)AI
prereq248_024AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Other
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (8)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq239_001Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsMacro/Economy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq232_040Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.AI
prereq238_058Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearsMacro/Economy
prereq235_024In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.Energy
prereqCMQ_003By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.AI

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.598gdeltelon musk accuses google co 215505716.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 launch per hour",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Elon's predictions were... a launch per hour to populate the constellation",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Elon's predictions were, you know, I think a launch per hour to populate the constellation he wanted",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "1000th Starlink launch of 2026 milestone hit",
      "notes": "HIT — 1,000th Starlink launch of 2026 hit milestone April 2026.",
      "source": "https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-04-14",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-04-14",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-14",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confirms cumulative 2026 Starlink satellite count crosses 1,000 deployed in single year"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "248_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_020",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX Starship V3 first flight test",
      "source": "https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-03-20",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-03-20",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-16",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX successfully launches first Starship V3 (block upgrade with higher thrust/payload) test flight"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "248_024",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_025",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starlink V3 deployment using Starship begins",
      "source": "https://www.basenor.co
... (truncated)