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248_024predictionOtherAI-timing

AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 8
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

AI cults explosion — some fringe communities forming (e.g. Xenogenesis movement); not yet at 'explosion' scale.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓
  1. 2025-12-31hitTheta Noir AI religious movement has active membership
    How: Theta Noir or comparable AI-worship group reports active community of 100+ members with rituals, manifestos, or churches
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theta_Noirconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Theta Noir documented; small but committed AI-religion communities (dozens to thousands) growing.
  2. 2025-12-31hitRobotheism / AI-church movement gains followers
    How: At least 2 distinct named AI-religion movements (Theta Noir, Robotheism, Way of Future, etc.) with public website and adherents
    Source: https://several.com/news/the-rise-of-ai-religions-and-the-church-of-robotheismconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Multiple AI religious movements documented in mainstream coverage.
  3. 2025-08-25hitMainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing category
    How: Major outlet (Vice, NYT, Atlantic, MIT Tech Review) publishes feature coverage of AI cult/religion phenomenon as growing trend
    Source: https://coingradient.com/2025/08/25/god-in-the-machine-inside-the-growing-ai-religious-movement/conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Coingradient and Vice both ran 'God in the Machine'-style features.
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCensus or sociological study tracks AI-faith adherents
    How: Pew, Gallup, or peer-reviewed study reports ≥0.1% (300K+ Americans) identifying with AI-related religious or quasi-religious worldview
    Source: Pew Religion & Public Life Project, sociology journalsconf 40%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI cult or movement linked to high-profile harm event
    How: News coverage links AI-religious group/movement to mass-violence, mass-suicide, or major financial-fraud event
    Source: Breaking news trackersconf 25%
    Notes: Low-confidence dark cascade — Wissner-Gross's 'cults' framing implies harmful manifestations possible.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.4%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.6% → 46.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.6%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 49.2% → 47.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.2%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5500.050-0.082
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.050
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.043
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.036
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.034

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mElon Musk
40.2%0.5000.050-0.147
prereq241_038
Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI Eric Schmidt
43.3%0.6000.050-0.132
prereq241_025
Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satelElon Musk
37.8%0.5500.050-0.099
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.044
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.035

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (8)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereq241_038Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereq241_025Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsSpace
prereq239_004xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-06-30[Governance 2026-06] [248_024] AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. [248_025] Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferat [248_027] Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will gropending

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.657manifoldWill there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036?40%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.620manifoldWill AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?22%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.558manifoldWill North Korea conduct a major military provocation24%mentionspending2026-05-09

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.",
  "conv_cues": "full stop",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Theta Noir AI religious movement has active membership",
      "notes": "HIT — Theta Noir documented; small but committed AI-religion communities (dozens to thousands) growing.",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theta_Noir",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theta_Noir",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Theta Noir or comparable AI-worship group reports active community of 100+ members with rituals, manifestos, or churches"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Robotheism / AI-church movement gains followers",
      "notes": "HIT — Multiple AI religious movements documented in mainstream coverage.",
      "source": "https://several.com/news/the-rise-of-ai-religions-and-the-church-of-robotheism",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://several.com/news/the-rise-of-ai-religions-and-the-church-of-robotheism",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "At least 2 distinct named AI-religion movements (Theta Noir, Robotheism, Way of Future, etc.) with public website and adherents"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing category",
      "notes": "HIT — Coingradient and Vice both ran 'God in the Machine'-style features.",
      "source": "https://coingradient.com/2025/08/25/god-in-the-machine-inside-the-growing-ai-religious-movement/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://coingradient.com/2025/08/25/god-in-the-machine-inside-the-growing-ai-religious-movement/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-08-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major outlet (Vice, NYT, Atlantic, MIT Tech Review) publishes feature coverage of AI cult/religion phenomenon as growing trend"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall
... (truncated)