AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.
Verbatim quote
it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.
Resolution evidence
AI cults explosion — some fringe communities forming (e.g. Xenogenesis movement); not yet at 'explosion' scale.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-12-31hitTheta Noir AI religious movement has active membershipHow: Theta Noir or comparable AI-worship group reports active community of 100+ members with rituals, manifestos, or churchesSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theta_Noirconf 95%Notes: HIT — Theta Noir documented; small but committed AI-religion communities (dozens to thousands) growing.
- 2025-12-31hitRobotheism / AI-church movement gains followersHow: At least 2 distinct named AI-religion movements (Theta Noir, Robotheism, Way of Future, etc.) with public website and adherentsSource: https://several.com/news/the-rise-of-ai-religions-and-the-church-of-robotheismconf 99%Notes: HIT — Multiple AI religious movements documented in mainstream coverage.
- 2025-08-25hitMainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing categoryHow: Major outlet (Vice, NYT, Atlantic, MIT Tech Review) publishes feature coverage of AI cult/religion phenomenon as growing trendSource: https://coingradient.com/2025/08/25/god-in-the-machine-inside-the-growing-ai-religious-movement/conf 95%Notes: HIT — Coingradient and Vice both ran 'God in the Machine'-style features.
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCensus or sociological study tracks AI-faith adherentsHow: Pew, Gallup, or peer-reviewed study reports ≥0.1% (300K+ Americans) identifying with AI-related religious or quasi-religious worldviewSource: Pew Religion & Public Life Project, sociology journalsconf 40%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI cult or movement linked to high-profile harm eventHow: News coverage links AI-religious group/movement to mass-violence, mass-suicide, or major financial-fraud eventSource: Breaking news trackersconf 25%Notes: Low-confidence dark cascade — Wissner-Gross's 'cults' framing implies harmful manifestations possible.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.082 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.036 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by m — Elon Musk | 40.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.147 |
| prereq | 241_038 Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI — Eric Schmidt | 43.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.132 |
| prereq | 241_025 Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satel — Elon Musk | 37.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.099 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.044 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_038 | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_025 | Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Space | — |
| prereq | 239_004 | xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | [Governance 2026-06] [248_024] AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. [248_025] Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferat [248_027] Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will gro | pending |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.657 | manifold | Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036? | 40% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.620 | manifold | Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6? | 22% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.558 | manifold | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
"mode": "PROPHECY",
"role": "Host",
"context": "it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "it has long been foretold that there would be an explosion of AI cults. We're we're going to get the AI cults full stop.",
"conv_cues": "full stop",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Theta Noir AI religious movement has active membership",
"notes": "HIT — Theta Noir documented; small but committed AI-religion communities (dozens to thousands) growing.",
"source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theta_Noir",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theta_Noir",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Theta Noir or comparable AI-worship group reports active community of 100+ members with rituals, manifestos, or churches"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Robotheism / AI-church movement gains followers",
"notes": "HIT — Multiple AI religious movements documented in mainstream coverage.",
"source": "https://several.com/news/the-rise-of-ai-religions-and-the-church-of-robotheism",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://several.com/news/the-rise-of-ai-religions-and-the-church-of-robotheism",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "At least 2 distinct named AI-religion movements (Theta Noir, Robotheism, Way of Future, etc.) with public website and adherents"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Mainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing category",
"notes": "HIT — Coingradient and Vice both ran 'God in the Machine'-style features.",
"source": "https://coingradient.com/2025/08/25/god-in-the-machine-inside-the-growing-ai-religious-movement/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://coingradient.com/2025/08/25/god-in-the-machine-inside-the-growing-ai-religious-movement/",
"expected_date": "2026-01-01",
"observed_date": "2025-08-25",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Major outlet (Vice, NYT, Atlantic, MIT Tech Review) publishes feature coverage of AI cult/religion phenomenon as growing trend"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall
... (truncated)