xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#239 "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239" · source
Prediction text
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | we're currently behind on coding... which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year.
Watch events: Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)
Verbatim quote
we're currently behind on coding... which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year.
Predictor: Elon Musk
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 46.4% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.147 |
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.117 |
| prereq | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathem — Alex Wissner-Gross | 60.7% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.084 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.053 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.030 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years — Elon Musk | 37.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.110 |
| prereq | 235_024 In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling fr — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.4% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.106 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.066 |
| prereq | CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels acr — Sam Altman | 22.8% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.059 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (16)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_020 | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_024 | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Other | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 | First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 235_024 | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. | Energy | — |
| prereq | CMQ_003 | By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. | AI | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.711 | manifold | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026? | 9% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.672 | manifold | When will Codex hit 6M WAUs? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.664 | manifold | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time? | 44% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-24 |
| 0.658 | polymarket | Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-24 |
| 0.657 | manifold | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026? | 96% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
| 0.654 | manifold | When will the Jai programming language be public? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.653 | manifold | What will be the best score (almost resolved) on ProgramBench at the end of 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.645 | manifold | How many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.644 | manifold | Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10) | 69% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.642 | manifold | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June? | 41% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding... we should probably get there by the middle of this year.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we're currently behind on coding... which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year.",
"conv_cues": "I think; should probably",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "mid-2026",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026",
"status": "pending",
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"expected_date": "2026-06-20",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
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"source_id": "235_030",
"expected_date": "2033-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "241_043",
"expected_date": "2033-08-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "239_001",
"expected_date": "2036-10-04",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 6,
"source_id": "SEM_034",
"expected_date": "2039-09-22",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
... (truncated)