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239_004predictionAIAGI

xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#239 "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
40.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
9 / 6
Tickers exposed
23

Prediction text

xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | we're currently behind on coding... which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year.

Watch events: Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239"
we're currently behind on coding... which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year.

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.2%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 41.3% → 40.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.3%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 42.7% → 41.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z42.7%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 45.3% → 42.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z45.3%-4.7pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 45.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_024
AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Alex Wissner-Gross
46.4%0.5000.050-0.147
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.5000.050-0.117
prereq238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathemAlex Wissner-Gross
60.7%0.5000.050-0.084
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.053
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.030

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq239_001
Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk
37.7%0.6000.050-0.110
prereq235_024
In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling frAlex Wissner-Gross
31.4%0.4500.050-0.106
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.072
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.066
prereqCMQ_003
By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels acrSam Altman
22.8%0.3500.050-0.059

Ticker exposure

23 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (16)

NVDAFROGGTLBAIBBAISOUNTEAMAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOPTCEHY

Adverse (7)

CTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGAACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq238_020Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)AI
prereq248_024AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Other
correlateS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (6)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq239_001Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsMacro/Economy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq235_024In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.Energy
prereqCMQ_003By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.711manifoldWill Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?9%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.672manifoldWhen will Codex hit 6M WAUs?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.664manifoldWill the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?44%mentionspending2026-05-24
0.658polymarketWill Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026?0%mentionspending2026-03-24
0.657manifoldWill I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?96%mentionspending2026-04-23
0.654manifoldWhen will the Jai programming language be public?mentionspending2026-05-10
0.653manifoldWhat will be the best score (almost resolved) on ProgramBench at the end of 2026?mentionspending2026-05-06
0.645manifoldHow many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026mentionspending2026-04-29
0.644manifoldWill WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)69%mentionspending2026-05-10
0.642manifoldWill Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?41%mentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding... we should probably get there by the middle of this year.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we're currently behind on coding... which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year.",
  "conv_cues": "I think; should probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "mid-2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "248_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_020",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "239_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "235_024",
      "expected_date": "2029-04-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "CMQ_003",
      "expected_date": "2030-07-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "239_001",
      "expected_date": "2036-10-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "SEM_034",
      "expected_date": "2039-09-22",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,

... (truncated)