Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)

Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | math is cooked. We're we're seeing I think 38% capability... And there are even rumors even in the past 24 to 48 hours that the next tier up the so-called open problems benchmark that 5.4 is reportedly rumored to be on the verge of solving the first open hard math problem.

math is cooked. We're we're seeing I think 38% capability... And there are even rumors even in the past 24 to 48 hours that the next tier up the so-called open problems benchmark that 5.4 is reportedly rumored to be on the verge of solving the first open hard math problem.

GPT-5.4 claimed 38% on Frontier Math Tier 4; DeepMind AlphaProof trajectory to IMO gold 2024-2025. Math not fully 'cooked' but progressing rapidly.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "38% on Frontier Math Tier 4",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "rumors",
  "context": "now with GPT 5.4 turned up to maximum reasoning capability, we're seeing finally, and this was a prediction I think in our prediction episode, math is cooked. We're we're seeing I think 38% capability... And there are even rumors even in the past 24 to 48 hours that the next tier up the so-called open problems benchmark that 5.4 is reportedly rumored to be on the verge of solving the first open hard math problem.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "math is cooked. We're we're seeing I think 38% capability... And there are even rumors even in the past 24 to 48 hours that the next tier up the so-called open problems benchmark that 5.4 is reportedly rumored to be on the verge of solving the first open hard math problem.",
  "conv_cues": "math is cooked; on the verge",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Imminent",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
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    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)",
      "status": "partial",
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      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
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      "kind": "cascade",
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      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
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    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI achieves IMO Gold (top-30 score) on 2026 problems",
      "notes": "DeepMind already achieved Silver in 2024; Gold by 2026 is the natural progression. ImoGrandChallenge.org tracks this.",
      "source": "DeepMind AlphaProof, OpenAI math results announcements",
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      "weight": 0.4,
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      "confidence": 0.75,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-07",
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      "expected_date_range": {
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      "measurement_criterion": "AI lab announces system achieving IMO Gold Medal score (typically 25/42+ on 2026 problems), w
... (truncated)