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237_003predictionAIAI-timing

12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild.

Predictor: Alex Finn · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.

Verbatim quote

From episode "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer"
yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.

Predictor: Alex Finn

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.643
Brier
0.0122
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 2 resolved
Hit rate
50.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Finn is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-04-16hitClaude Opus 4.7 launches with extended agent workflow capabilities
    How: Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 with long-running agent and 1M-token context capabilities
    Source: https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/best-ai-models-may-2026-leaderboard — Best AI Models May 2026 leaderboard listing Claude Opus 4.7conf 99%
  2. 2026-04-23hitGPT-5.5 launches as new leading AI model
    How: OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 establishing new state-of-the-art on Artificial Analysis intelligence index
    Source: https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/openai-gpt5-5-is-the-new-leading-AI-model — Artificial Analysis GPT-5.5 leading modelconf 99%
  3. 2026-04-30hitApril 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releases
    How: April 2026 has the highest number of frontier model releases (Claude Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5, others) in any single month, per llm-stats.com tracker
    Source: https://llm-stats.com/llm-updates — LLM Stats AI updates trackerconf 80%
  4. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSoftware-engineering task length AI can complete doubles every 5 months
    How: METR / external benchmark shows length of SWE tasks LLMs complete at 50% success rate doubling every ~5 months (vs prior 7-month cadence)
    Source: https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-index-2026 — Stanford AI Index 2026, citing METR doubling-time researchconf 85%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingClaude 5 ('Fennec') ground-up architecture release
    How: Anthropic ships Claude 5 (codename 'Fennec') as full architectural upgrade with measurable jump on SWE-Bench / GPQA benchmarks
    Source: https://www.vellum.ai/blog/flagship-model-report — Vellum flagship model reportconf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.3%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.4% → 46.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.4%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 47.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.048
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.041
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.037
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.032
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050-0.026

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.036
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.035
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.023
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.009
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.008

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
correlateS_ASI_MID_2034ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'asi_recursive_self_improvement
correlateS_AI_PAUSE_2026Major-country AI pause beginning 2026ai_regulatory_pause
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.697arxivAIs and Humans with Agencymentionspending2026-05-04
0.576manifoldMy current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026)75%mentionspending2026-05-05

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "12 months ≈ 12 years of AI progress",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-Other",
  "context": "vision for the next 12 months of AI agents I'd both I'd like both Alex's and AWG's point of view on this >> yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.",
  "conv_cues": "that'll be wild",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "12 months (by 2027-03)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Claude Opus 4.7 launches with extended agent workflow capabilities",
      "source": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/best-ai-models-may-2026-leaderboard — Best AI Models May 2026 leaderboard listing Claude Opus 4.7",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/best-ai-models-may-2026-leaderboard",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 with long-running agent and 1M-token context capabilities"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 launches as new leading AI model",
      "source": "https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/openai-gpt5-5-is-the-new-leading-AI-model — Artificial Analysis GPT-5.5 leading model",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/openai-gpt5-5-is-the-new-leading-AI-model",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 establishing new state-of-the-art on Artificial Analysis intelligence index"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "April 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releases",
      "source": "https://llm-stats.com/llm-updates — LLM Stats AI updates tracker",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://llm-stats.com/llm-updates",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "April 2026 has the highest number of fron
... (truncated)