12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild.
Predictor: Alex Finn · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source
Prediction text
12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.
Verbatim quote
yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.
Predictor: Alex Finn
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Finn is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-16hitClaude Opus 4.7 launches with extended agent workflow capabilitiesHow: Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 with long-running agent and 1M-token context capabilitiesSource: https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/best-ai-models-may-2026-leaderboard — Best AI Models May 2026 leaderboard listing Claude Opus 4.7conf 99%
- 2026-04-23hitGPT-5.5 launches as new leading AI modelHow: OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 establishing new state-of-the-art on Artificial Analysis intelligence indexSource: https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/openai-gpt5-5-is-the-new-leading-AI-model — Artificial Analysis GPT-5.5 leading modelconf 99%
- 2026-04-30hitApril 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releasesHow: April 2026 has the highest number of frontier model releases (Claude Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5, others) in any single month, per llm-stats.com trackerSource: https://llm-stats.com/llm-updates — LLM Stats AI updates trackerconf 80%
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSoftware-engineering task length AI can complete doubles every 5 monthsHow: METR / external benchmark shows length of SWE tasks LLMs complete at 50% success rate doubling every ~5 months (vs prior 7-month cadence)Source: https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-index-2026 — Stanford AI Index 2026, citing METR doubling-time researchconf 85%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingClaude 5 ('Fennec') ground-up architecture releaseHow: Anthropic ships Claude 5 (codename 'Fennec') as full architectural upgrade with measurable jump on SWE-Bench / GPQA benchmarksSource: https://www.vellum.ai/blog/flagship-model-report — Vellum flagship model reportconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.037 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.026 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.009 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.008 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_MID_2034 | ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years' | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| correlate | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 | Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.697 | arxiv | AIs and Humans with Agency | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.576 | manifold | My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026) | 75% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "12 months ≈ 12 years of AI progress",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-Other",
"context": "vision for the next 12 months of AI agents I'd both I'd like both Alex's and AWG's point of view on this >> yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "yeah like 12 years so that'll be on what's that >> in 12 months is like 12 years in AI. So that'll be wild.",
"conv_cues": "that'll be wild",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "12 months (by 2027-03)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Claude Opus 4.7 launches with extended agent workflow capabilities",
"source": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/best-ai-models-may-2026-leaderboard — Best AI Models May 2026 leaderboard listing Claude Opus 4.7",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
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"source_url": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/best-ai-models-may-2026-leaderboard",
"expected_date": "2026-04-16",
"observed_date": "2026-04-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "GPT-5.5 launches as new leading AI model",
"source": "https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/openai-gpt5-5-is-the-new-leading-AI-model — Artificial Analysis GPT-5.5 leading model",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
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"source_url": "https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/openai-gpt5-5-is-the-new-leading-AI-model",
"expected_date": "2026-04-23",
"observed_date": "2026-04-23",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 establishing new state-of-the-art on Artificial Analysis intelligence index"
},
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},
{
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"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
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"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "April 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releases",
"source": "https://llm-stats.com/llm-updates — LLM Stats AI updates tracker",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://llm-stats.com/llm-updates",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "April 2026 has the highest number of fron
... (truncated)