S_ASI_MID_2034scenarioasi_recursive_self_improvement
ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'
Prior probability
30.0%
Current probability
30.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30
Edges in / out
0 / 26
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
ASI by mid-2034. Schmidt has stated ASI in 6 years (i.e., 2030 from his statement timing, but realistic 2034 given AGI typically 5y before ASI in his framework).
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 30%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_002 UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step — Andrew Yang | 41.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.217 |
| prereq | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent laye — Emad Mostaque | 35.2% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.182 |
| prereq | 234_043 Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlyin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.178 |
| prereq | 245_044 Northern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity en — Ben Lamm | 34.5% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.175 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (26)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_002 | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_036 | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 234_043 | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Education | — |
| prereq | 245_044 | Northern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombs | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | 238_072 | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| correlate | CMQ_009 | Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_005 | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade | AI | — |
| correlate | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| correlate | 231_012 | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| correlate | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 246_053 | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | AI | — |
| correlate | 237_003 | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_002 | Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_035 | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | AI/Cognition | — |
| correlate | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_004 | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_011 | AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_031 | Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | Other | — |
| correlate | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
Linked documents (1)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.532 | polymarket | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev | 91% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "asi",
"dimension": "asi_recursive_self_improvement",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "ASI",
"family_order": 2,
"beyond_horizon": true,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}