Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | now, in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be, you know, it'll go from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes >> all over the next couple of years.
Verbatim quote
now, in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be, you know, it'll go from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes >> all over the next couple of years.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y
Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-31hitAccenture Pulse of Change reports 82% of C-suite expects higher change in 2026How: Accenture Pulse of Change report or comparable C-suite survey shows >=80% of executives expect higher rate of change vs prior yearSource: https://www.cio.com/article/4154263/10-ways-to-accelerate-digital-transformation-2.html — Accenture Pulse of Change 2026conf 90%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMedian enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthlyHow: Major enterprise survey (McKinsey, Deloitte, Gartner) reports >=50% of large enterprises shift from quarterly to monthly strategic planning cyclesSource: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends/2026/agentic-ai-strategy.html — Deloitte agentic AI strategy 2026conf 45%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst Fortune-500 firm publicly adopts continuous-strategy operating modelHow: Fortune-500 company publicly announces 'continuous strategy' or 'AI-augmented real-time decision' operating model replacing traditional quarterly planningSource: https://hbr.org/sponsored/2026/02/a-blueprint-for-enterprise-wide-agentic-ai-transformation — Google Cloud / HBR blueprintconf 40%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-09-30pendingAgentic AI shifts decision cycles from days to minutes at flagship deploymentHow: Public case study of agentic-AI deployment compressing operational decision cycle by >=10x (e.g., 72-hour exception resolution to <30 minutes)Source: https://www.skan.ai/blogs/agentic-ai-operating-model-enterprise-guide — global manufacturer 72hr-to-40min compression case studyconf 60%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-10-31pendingCourse-correction in minutes becomes industry-standard at AI-native firmsHow: AI-native company (Anthropic, OpenAI, Perplexity, etc.) publicly demonstrates routine sub-hour mid-quarter pivots without governance breakdown — Blundin's terminal claimSource: Blundin podcast quote; trajectory of AI-native firm operating cadencesconf 40%Notes: Cascade — Blundin's 'minutes' terminus. Limited to AI-native organizations; broader enterprise adoption still gated by governance and legacy systems.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.083 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.072 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.057 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.056 |
| prereq | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20 — Jensen Huang | 85.5% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.055 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.015 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.011 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (12)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_MID_2034 | ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years' | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 | AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.561 | manifold | Will I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week? | 55% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "decades → minutes",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be... from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes all over the next couple of years.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "now, in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be, you know, it'll go from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes >> all over the next couple of years.",
"conv_cues": "going to be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "next couple of years",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Accenture Pulse of Change reports 82% of C-suite expects higher change in 2026",
"source": "https://www.cio.com/article/4154263/10-ways-to-accelerate-digital-transformation-2.html — Accenture Pulse of Change 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://www.cio.com/article/4154263/10-ways-to-accelerate-digital-transformation-2.html",
"expected_date": "2026-01-31",
"observed_date": "2026-01-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Accenture Pulse of Change report or comparable C-suite survey shows >=80% of executives expect higher rate of change vs prior year"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Median enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthly",
"source": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends/2026/agentic-ai-strategy.html — Deloitte agentic AI strategy 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"source_url": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends/2026/agentic-ai-strategy.html",
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_cr
... (truncated)