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230_041predictionAIAI-scaling

Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
46.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31
Edges in / out
12 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | now, in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be, you know, it'll go from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes >> all over the next couple of years.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
now, in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be, you know, it'll go from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes >> all over the next couple of years.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.573

Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)

Base rate
20.0%
1/5 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 46.2% → blend 46.2% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-01-31hitAccenture Pulse of Change reports 82% of C-suite expects higher change in 2026
    How: Accenture Pulse of Change report or comparable C-suite survey shows >=80% of executives expect higher rate of change vs prior year
    Source: https://www.cio.com/article/4154263/10-ways-to-accelerate-digital-transformation-2.html — Accenture Pulse of Change 2026conf 90%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMedian enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthly
    How: Major enterprise survey (McKinsey, Deloitte, Gartner) reports >=50% of large enterprises shift from quarterly to monthly strategic planning cycles
    Source: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends/2026/agentic-ai-strategy.html — Deloitte agentic AI strategy 2026conf 45%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst Fortune-500 firm publicly adopts continuous-strategy operating model
    How: Fortune-500 company publicly announces 'continuous strategy' or 'AI-augmented real-time decision' operating model replacing traditional quarterly planning
    Source: https://hbr.org/sponsored/2026/02/a-blueprint-for-enterprise-wide-agentic-ai-transformation — Google Cloud / HBR blueprintconf 40%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2028-09-30pendingAgentic AI shifts decision cycles from days to minutes at flagship deployment
    How: Public case study of agentic-AI deployment compressing operational decision cycle by >=10x (e.g., 72-hour exception resolution to <30 minutes)
    Source: https://www.skan.ai/blogs/agentic-ai-operating-model-enterprise-guide — global manufacturer 72hr-to-40min compression case studyconf 60%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-10-31pendingCourse-correction in minutes becomes industry-standard at AI-native firms
    How: AI-native company (Anthropic, OpenAI, Perplexity, etc.) publicly demonstrates routine sub-hour mid-quarter pivots without governance breakdown — Blundin's terminal claim
    Source: Blundin podcast quote; trajectory of AI-native firm operating cadencesconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — Blundin's 'minutes' terminus. Limited to AI-native organizations; broader enterprise adoption still gated by governance and legacy systems.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.2%+1.7pp
Network propagation: 44.4% → 46.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z44.4%+3.6pp
Network propagation: 40.9% → 44.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.9%+7.9pp
Network propagation: 32.9% → 40.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z32.9%-8.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.329 w_in=0.38 agi_breakthrough_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z41.5%+8.6pp
Network propagation: 32.9% → 41.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z32.9%-27.1pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.329 w_in=0.38 agi_breakthrough_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.083
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.072
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.6000.050+0.057
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.056
prereqSEM_011
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20Jensen Huang
85.5%0.6000.050+0.055

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.046
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050-0.033
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.024
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.015
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.011

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (12)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_ASI_MID_2034ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'asi_recursive_self_improvement
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.561manifoldWill I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week?55%mentionspending2026-05-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "decades → minutes",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be... from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes all over the next couple of years.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "now, in the age of AGI, the the course corrections are going to be, you know, it'll go from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes >> all over the next couple of years.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next couple of years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Accenture Pulse of Change reports 82% of C-suite expects higher change in 2026",
      "source": "https://www.cio.com/article/4154263/10-ways-to-accelerate-digital-transformation-2.html — Accenture Pulse of Change 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.cio.com/article/4154263/10-ways-to-accelerate-digital-transformation-2.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Accenture Pulse of Change report or comparable C-suite survey shows >=80% of executives expect higher rate of change vs prior year"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Median enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthly",
      "source": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends/2026/agentic-ai-strategy.html — Deloitte agentic AI strategy 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends/2026/agentic-ai-strategy.html",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_cr
... (truncated)