Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali...

Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now aligned with aggressive Silicon Valley insider timelines. | Next Metaculus AGI aggregate threshold crossing

Key catalyst: Next Metaculus AGI aggregate threshold crossing

Watch events: Metaculus AGI date question; 80000 Hours annual expert survey

Metaculus AGI-by-2030 aggregate probability rose from ~15% (2020) to ~55% (2024-2026); 80000 Hours expert survey converges. Now positions aggregate consensus in 2029-2031 window.

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "50yr horizon compressed to 5yr",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "Critical Metaculus-based AGI consensus. Complements AGI-timeline cohort: Aschenbrenner 2027 (ROB_001, CMQ_018), Amodei 2026-27 (AUT_009), Hassabis 2030-35 (AUT_012, IND_009), Karpathy ~2034 (IND_004), Kurzweil 2029 (INF_071, AI_007, IND_022). Places aggregate forecaster consensus 2029-2031.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "conv_cues": "aggregate platform consensus; specific year-range",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2029,
  "timeframe": "2029-2031",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Metaculus aggregate AGI forecast median crosses below 2030",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-general-ai-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-announced/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Metaculus 'When will the first general AI be announced' question median forecast date moves below January 1, 2030 sustained for >=60 days"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AGI Timelines aggregate dashboard combined forecast median enters 2029-2031 band",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://agi-timelines-dashboard.vercel.app/",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AGI Timelines Dashboard combined forecast (Metaculus + Manifold + Kalshi) reports median date squarely within 2029-2031 window for >=60 consecutive days"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Samotsvety / superforecaster AGI-by-2030 probability rises above 35%",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://benjamintodd.substack.com/p/shortening-agi-timelines-a-review",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Samotsvety or comparable superforecaster cohort publishes updated AGI-by-2030 probability >=35% (vs ~28% baseline), citing capability progress"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Capability benchmark threshold crossing — agent autonomous-task duration exceeds 8h on METR ladder",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://forecastingaifutures.substack.com/p/forecasting-agi-insights-from-prediction-markets",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "METR or comparable autonomous-task benchmark shows frontier model completing >=8-hour autonomous task envelope at >=50% success, validating sub-3-year AGI compression hypothesis"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Frontier-lab self-report: internal model passes 'remote-worker substitution' eval",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_
... (truncated)