Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)

Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | The belief in San Francisco is this occurs within two to three years

The belief in San Francisco is this occurs within two to three years

SF consensus '2028-2029' alignment with Schmidt, Amodei 'late 2026 or 2027', Altman 'during Trump term' (ends Jan 2029). All within ±2y of each other.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2-3 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "caveats": "attributed to SF consensus, not Schmidt's personal call",
  "context": "this is essentially a super intelligence moment. The belief in San Francisco is this occurs within two to three years",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "cited_by": "Eric Schmidt",
  "verbatim": "The belief in San Francisco is this occurs within two to three years",
  "conv_cues": "belief in San Francisco",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028-2029",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sam Altman publicly forecasts >50% intellectual capacity in datacenters by 2028",
      "notes": "HIT — Altman publicly stated by end of 2028 most of world's intellectual capacity could reside in datacenters. Direct SF-consensus signal.",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/26/sam-altman-openai-ceo-superintelligence-technology/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/26/sam-altman-openai-ceo-superintelligence-technology/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-26",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2025-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Sam Altman publicly states OpenAI is 'a couple of years' from early superintelligence or that majority of intellectual capacity moves to datacenters by 2028"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Dario Amodei reaffirms 2026-2027 superhuman-AI timeline at Davos",
      "notes": "HIT — Amodei said at Davos: 'plausible 2026 or 2027 breakthrough... no ceiling below the level of humans.' Anchors the SF consensus claim.",
      "source": "https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/anthropic-ceo-predicts-ai-will-surpass-human-smarts-by-2027",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/anthropic-ceo-predicts-ai-will-surpass-human-smarts-by-2027",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Dario Amodei publicly states AI-better-than-humans-at-everything is plausible within 2026-2027 timeframe at major venue"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "we
... (truncated)