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246_053predictionAIAI-scaling

ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
42.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2040-08-31
Edges in / out
8 / 0
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 9 pending
  1. 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingOpenAI announces 'AI research intern' capability
    How: OpenAI public announcement (blog/keynote) demonstrating an AI system performing supervised AI research tasks at intern level
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFrontier lab demonstrates measurable RSI loop in production model training
    How: Anthropic/OpenAI/DeepMind paper or technical report documenting AI-generated improvements that materially shorten the next training cycle (>=10% efficiency gain)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingPublic model exceeds human expert level across >=80% of MMLU-Pro / GPQA-Diamond / Frontier Math
    How: At least one publicly released model achieves expert-level scores on three independent frontier benchmarks simultaneously
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%
  4. 2028-03-31pendingOpenAI 'true automated AI researcher' target (March 2028)
    How: OpenAI demonstrates fully autonomous research loop producing peer-review-grade contributions without human prompting
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  5. 2028-08-13pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  6. 2030-11-27pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingMajor lab declares an internal model has achieved superintelligence threshold
    How: Public statement from a frontier lab CEO or technical board claiming a system surpasses top human experts across >=90% of cognitive tasks
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 30%
  8. 2033-03-12pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.9%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 44.4% → 42.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z44.4%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 47.5% → 44.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z47.5%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 47.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z50.0%-5.0pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 50.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS
ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff
60.0%0.5500.050-0.079
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.071
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.550+0.061
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.054
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.046

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUSASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoffasi_recursive_self_improvement
correlateS_ASI_MID_2034ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'asi_recursive_self_improvement
correlateS_ASI_FAST_2031ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGIasi_recursive_self_improvement
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.672manifoldIf ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?77%mentionspending2026-05-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict",
  "verbatim": "Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict",
  "conv_cues": "very soon",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Very soon",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI announces 'AI research intern' capability",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://recursive-workshop.github.io/",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI public announcement (blog/keynote) demonstrating an AI system performing supervised AI research tasks at intern level"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier lab demonstrates measurable RSI loop in production model training",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://openreview.net/pdf?id=OsPQ6zTQXV",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic/OpenAI/DeepMind paper or technical report documenting AI-generated improvements that materially shorten the next training cycle (>=10% efficiency gain)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Public model exceeds human expert level across >=80% of MMLU-Pro / GPQA-Diamond / Frontier Math",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least one publicly released model achieves expert-level scores on three independent frontier benchmarks simultaneously"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI 'true automated AI researcher' target (March 2028)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://recursive-workshop.github.io/",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI demonstrates fully autonomous research loop producing peer-review-grade contributions without human prompting"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-08-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2030-11-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "S_ASI_FAST_2031",
      "expected_date": "2031-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Major lab declares an internal model has achieved super
... (truncated)