ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict
Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam
Verbatim quote
Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingOpenAI announces 'AI research intern' capabilityHow: OpenAI public announcement (blog/keynote) demonstrating an AI system performing supervised AI research tasks at intern levelSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFrontier lab demonstrates measurable RSI loop in production model trainingHow: Anthropic/OpenAI/DeepMind paper or technical report documenting AI-generated improvements that materially shorten the next training cycle (>=10% efficiency gain)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingPublic model exceeds human expert level across >=80% of MMLU-Pro / GPQA-Diamond / Frontier MathHow: At least one publicly released model achieves expert-level scores on three independent frontier benchmarks simultaneouslySource: llm_enrichedconf 45%
- 2028-03-31pendingOpenAI 'true automated AI researcher' target (March 2028)How: OpenAI demonstrates fully autonomous research loop producing peer-review-grade contributions without human promptingSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2028-08-13pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2030-11-27pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingMajor lab declares an internal model has achieved superintelligence thresholdHow: Public statement from a frontier lab CEO or technical board claiming a system surpasses top human experts across >=90% of cognitive tasksSource: llm_enrichedconf 30%
- 2033-03-12pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | 60.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.071 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.061 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.054 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.046 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS | ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_MID_2034 | ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years' | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_FAST_2031 | ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.672 | manifold | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur? | 77% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict",
"verbatim": "Then we're going to have ASI very soon and there may be other things that happen but it's very hard to predict",
"conv_cues": "very soon",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Very soon",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI announces 'AI research intern' capability",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"source_url": "https://recursive-workshop.github.io/",
"expected_date": "2026-10-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI public announcement (blog/keynote) demonstrating an AI system performing supervised AI research tasks at intern level"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Frontier lab demonstrates measurable RSI loop in production model training",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://openreview.net/pdf?id=OsPQ6zTQXV",
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Anthropic/OpenAI/DeepMind paper or technical report documenting AI-generated improvements that materially shorten the next training cycle (>=10% efficiency gain)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Public model exceeds human expert level across >=80% of MMLU-Pro / GPQA-Diamond / Frontier Math",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2028-01-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "At least one publicly released model achieves expert-level scores on three independent frontier benchmarks simultaneously"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI 'true automated AI researcher' target (March 2028)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"source_url": "https://recursive-workshop.github.io/",
"expected_date": "2028-03-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI demonstrates fully autonomous research loop producing peer-review-grade contributions without human prompting"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2028-08-13",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2030-11-27",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.7,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "S_ASI_FAST_2031",
"expected_date": "2031-12-31",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Major lab declares an internal model has achieved super
... (truncated)