ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI
Prediction text
Extreme fast takeoff. ASI emerges by Dec 2031. Requires AGI by ~2027 + rapid recursive self-improvement. Aschenbrenner-extreme path.
Predictor calibration
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Reference class
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
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What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_046 Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existi — Brett Adcock | 28.2% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.182 |
Prerequisites (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_046 | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 238_010 | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 246_053 | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_004 | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_035 | In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... | Other | — |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.669 | manifold | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur? | 77% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.547 | fda | FDA NDA212122: BREZTRI AEROSPHERE (BUDESONIDE) — ASTRAZENECA AB | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.538 | edgar_8k | Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) (CIK 0001560327) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.538 | edgar_8k | Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) (CIK 0001560327) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
Raw metadata
{
"phase": "asi_phase_e",
"fork_key": "asi",
"dimension": "asi_recursive_self_improvement",
"depends_on": "S_AGI_FAST_2027",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "ASI",
"family_order": 1,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}