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229_046predictionRoboticshumanoids

Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
28.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2031-09-30
Edges in / out
3 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. | we basically have another three to 5x in terms of speed and the actuators that we can run. The software is not enabling so it doesn't know how to do it yet. Uh so we can run like three to five times faster than what you saw today.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
we basically have another three to 5x in terms of speed and the actuators that we can run. The software is not enabling so it doesn't know how to do it yet. Uh so we can run like three to five times faster than what you saw today.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.613

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 28.2% → blend 28.2% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 28.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 9 pending
  1. 2026-04-30 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure publicly demonstrates Figure 03 operating at >=2x the Figure 02 cycle-time benchmark
    How: Figure publishes video or press release showing pick-and-place / locomotion cycle-time at >=2x prior generation while running on existing actuator hardware
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  2. 2027-04-15pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingHelix or successor whole-body control model publicly benchmarks task-completion time vs. 2026
    How: Figure publishes ML benchmark showing learned-control policy delivers measurable cycle-time speedup on identical hardware vs prior generation
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 75%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFigure or peer reports field humanoids running at >=3x current observed speed in customer site
    How: Customer (BMW, GXO, or future buyer) confirms deployed humanoids running >=3x speed of 2026 baseline in production environment
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  5. 2028-03-30pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  6. 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingBotQ factory throughput hits one Figure unit per minute or faster
    How: Figure announces sustained production rate >=60 units/hour from BotQ facility, scaling cumulative units to >=100K
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  7. 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingIndustry benchmark (e.g. RoboHIVE, BEHAVIOR) records 5x speedup on humanoid manipulation tasks
    How: Public academic or industry benchmark confirms 5x throughput improvement on a standard humanoid manipulation suite using only software updates
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  8. 2029-03-15pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 28%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z28.2%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 29.3% → 28.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z29.3%+10.8pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z18.6%-10.8pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z29.3%+10.8pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z18.6%-36.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_ASI_FAST_2031
ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI
10.0%0.5500.050-0.182
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.550+0.158

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_ASI_FAST_2031ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGIasi_recursive_self_improvement
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.708manifoldHow long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]mentionspending2026-05-15
0.636github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.1mentionspending2021-06-30
0.633arxivOn the Emergence of Pendular Structure in Multi-Contact Locomotionmentionspending2026-05-07
0.599github_release1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.2mentionspending2020-10-14
0.594arxivHigher-Order Flexible Configurations of Planar Parallel Manipulators Constructed by Averagingmentionspending2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "3x-5x faster",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "conditional on software",
  "context": "we basically have another three to 5x in terms of speed and the actuators that we can run. The software is not enabling so it doesn't know how to do it yet.",
  "verbatim": "we basically have another three to 5x in terms of speed and the actuators that we can run. The software is not enabling so it doesn't know how to do it yet. Uh so we can run like three to five times faster than what you saw today.",
  "direction": "UP",
  "timeframe": "future software unlock",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure publicly demonstrates Figure 03 operating at >=2x the Figure 02 cycle-time benchmark",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/introducing-figure-03",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publishes video or press release showing pick-and-place / locomotion cycle-time at >=2x prior generation while running on existing actuator hardware"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-15",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helix or successor whole-body control model publicly benchmarks task-completion time vs. 2026",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.eweek.com/news/figure-03-humanoid-robot-production-helix-ai/",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publishes ML benchmark showing learned-control policy delivers measurable cycle-time speedup on identical hardware vs prior generation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure or peer reports field humanoids running at >=3x current observed speed in customer site",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Customer (BMW, GXO, or future buyer) confirms deployed humanoids running >=3x speed of 2026 baseline in production environment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-03-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "BotQ factory throughput hits one Figure unit per minute or faster",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "http
... (truncated)