SERV
Serve Robotics · Nasdaq · USA
Cap tier
Small
Approx cap
$0.8B
Bull scenarios
80
Adverse scenarios
0
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 80 public links lack move; 0 lack probability
Themes & clusters
From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C8Humanoid robotsMulti-robot coordination / fleet management software
Investment thesis
From SRC_B Company Master
Sidewalk-delivery pure-play.
Bull scenarios (80)
Predictions where this ticker benefits
| Pred | Role | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_005 | pure_play | Labor/Jobs | Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network technicians) will experience a boom driven by AI-factory construction — wages for network-technician and DC-construction roles have roughly doubled into the ... | Jensen Huang | 70.0% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 229_001 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. | Brett Adcock | 62.3% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 229_002 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Brett Adcock | 56.1% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 241_027 | pure_play | Robotics | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Eric Schmidt | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_028 | pure_play | Geopolitics | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed | Eric Schmidt | 47.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_003 | pure_play | Auto/Transport | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Dara Khosrowshahi | 45.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 238_016 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | Peter Diamandis | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_061 | pure_play | Robotics | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) | Eric Schmidt | 44.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_008 | pure_play | Biotech/Longevity | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | Brett Adcock | 43.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_033 | pure_play | Robotics | Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world | Elon Musk | 42.8% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| SEM_041 | pure_play | Robotics | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Brett Adcock | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 238_015 | pure_play | Robotics | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Brent Bornick | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_027 | pure_play | Geopolitics | Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. | Brett Adcock | 40.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_009 | pure_play | Robotics | Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. | Brett Adcock | 40.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_033 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | Brett Adcock | 40.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_020 | pure_play | Robotics | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity. | Peter Diamandis | 39.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_034 | pure_play | Robotics | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Brett Adcock | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_042 | pure_play | Robotics | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. | Salim Ismail | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_045 | pure_play | Biotech/Longevity | Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | Salim Ismail | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 236_022 | pure_play | Robotics | Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame | Andrew Yang | 38.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_022 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. | Brett Adcock | 38.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_031 | pure_play | Robotics | At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans. | Brett Adcock | 38.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_023 | pure_play | Robotics | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Brett Adcock | 37.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_012 | pure_play | Robotics | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Brett Adcock | 37.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 230_051 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| INF_025 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. | Brett Adcock | 37.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_008 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... | Morgan Stanley | 37.1% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| CMQ_051 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. | Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | 37.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_016 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of robots per year. | Brett Adcock | 36.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_021 | pure_play | Robotics | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | Brett Adcock | 36.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_041 | pure_play | Other | Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' | Brett Adcock | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_013 | pure_play | Robotics | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Elon Musk | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_005 | pure_play | Robotics | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. | Brett Adcock | 36.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 230_021 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Peter Diamandis | 36.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_049 | pure_play | Space | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot construction | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 233_013 | pure_play | Labor/Jobs | Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand. | Joe Liemandt | 35.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_044 | pure_play | AI | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. | Brett Adcock | 35.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| AI_030 | pure_play | Robotics | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaces — completing the transition from partial-automation co-deployment to majority-synthetic corporate workforces. | Brett Adcock | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_014 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. | Brett Adcock | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 240_038 | pure_play | Labor/Jobs | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Jason Calacanis | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_038 | pure_play | Robotics | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Salim Ismail | 34.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_017 | pure_play | Robotics | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Brett Adcock | 34.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_029 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. | Brett Adcock | 33.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_014 | pure_play | Robotics | Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory | Elon Musk | 32.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_045 | pure_play | Robotics | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 32.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_056 | pure_play | Robotics | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Peter Diamandis | 31.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_002 | pure_play | Robotics | Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact | Eric Schmidt | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 236_020 | pure_play | Robotics | No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon | Andrew Yang | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_030 | pure_play | Robotics | Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots | Dara Khosrowshahi | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_012 | pure_play | Robotics | Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 | Elon Musk | 30.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_019 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. | Brett Adcock | 30.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| CMQ_055 | pure_play | Robotics | Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. | Brett Adcock | 29.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 235_020 | pure_play | Robotics | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_032 | pure_play | Robotics | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_018 | pure_play | Robotics | In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot. | Brett Adcock | 28.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_039 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. | Brett Adcock | 28.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_046 | pure_play | Robotics | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. | Brett Adcock | 28.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_045 | pure_play | Robotics | Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. | Brett Adcock | 28.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_044 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Mark Cuban | 28.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_029 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_043 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_010 | pure_play | Robotics | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Brett Adcock | 25.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 236_021 | pure_play | Robotics | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Elon Musk | 24.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 240_037 | pure_play | Auto/Transport | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_033 | pure_play | Robotics | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | David Holz | 23.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_011 | pure_play | Robotics | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Elon Musk | 22.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| CMQ_052 | pure_play | Robotics | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic laborer, fundamentally altering physical-labor economics. | Brett Adcock | 22.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| IND_023 | pure_play | Robotics | 'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companies — autonomy graduates from pilot programs to municipal public utilities by 2026; rupture of psychological firewall between humans and synthetic minds; AI soon optimizes its o... | Alex Wissner-Gross | 22.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| CMQ_054 | pure_play | Macro/Economy | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance', theoretically eliminating poverty by collapsing cost of physical goods and services. | Elon Musk | 21.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_037 | pure_play | Energy | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. | Peter Diamandis | 20.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_020 | pure_play | Robotics | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | Brett Adcock | 20.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_035 | pure_play | Space | Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets. | Brett Adcock | 20.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_007 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. | Chamath Palihapitiya | 19.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| CMQ_056 | pure_play | AI/Compute | Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. | Dario Amodei | 18.9% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| ROB_009 | pure_play | Robotics | External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... | Elon Musk | 18.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_030 | pure_play | Robotics | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Brett Adcock | 17.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_032 | pure_play | Robotics | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Elon Musk | 16.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_019 | pure_play | Robotics | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| IND_017 | pure_play | Macro/Economy | Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... | Peter Diamandis | 11.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_011 | pure_play | Space | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. | Elon Musk | 11.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
Adverse scenarios (0)
Predictions where this ticker is displaced
| Pred | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No adverse scenarios | |||||||