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229_039predictionRoboticshumanoids

Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
28.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
Edges in / out
2 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. | And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure. I mean, we have it now.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure. I mean, we have it now.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.567

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 28.2% → blend 28.2% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 28.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2025-10-31hitFigure 03 ships with palm-camera + 3-gram tactile sensor fusion
    How: Figure 03 publicly demonstrated with new in-palm cameras + fingertip tactile sensors detecting forces ≥3 grams, fused into Helix neural policy
    Source: Humanoids Daily: Figure 03 upgraded camera system 2x frame rate, 60% wider FOV, palm cameras, fingertip tactile sensors at 3g sensitivityconf 95%
    Notes: Adcock confirmed sensor expansion in F03 vs F02. New modalities (palm cam + tactile) prove the prediction's directional thesis.
  2. 2026-04-15hitBotQ production cadence reaches 1 robot/hour
    How: Figure achieves 1 humanoid produced per hour at BotQ, enabling sensor-iteration cycles
    Source: Humanoids Daily: 24x throughput Figure scales manufacturing to one robot per hourconf 99%
  3. 2027-02-18pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor module
    How: Any major humanoid OEM (Figure, Tesla Optimus, Apptronik, 1X, Unitree) publicly demos or ships a production humanoid with thermal/IR imaging or other beyond-visible-spectrum sensor
    Source: Humanoid OEM press releases, IEEE Spectrum / Humanoids Daily coverageconf 60%
    Notes: Adcock's literal claim ('we have it now' for IR/UV) suggests Figure could be first; but Tesla Optimus 3 (summer 2026 production) is also a candidate.
  5. 2027-12-09pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFigure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer feature
    How: OEM exposes multi-spectral perception (IR, UV, mmWave, or LiDAR-fused) as a customer-configurable feature in a humanoid commercial deployment
    Source: Figure customer case studies, Tesla AI Day announcementsconf 50%
  7. 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst commercial humanoid deployment in domain requiring beyond-visible perception
    How: Humanoid commercially deployed in security, search-and-rescue, hazmat inspection, or night-shift facility role specifically leveraging non-visible-spectrum sensors
    Source: Customer announcements, defense/industrial trade pressconf 45%
    Notes: Cascade — directly validates the use-case logic Adcock cited (night patrols, heat detection).
  8. 2028-09-28pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 28%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z28.2%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 29.3% → 28.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z29.3%+10.8pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z18.6%-10.8pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z29.3%+10.8pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z18.6%-36.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.550+0.158
prereqS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030
Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030
20.0%0.5500.050-0.132

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.619github_releasehuggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc3mentionspending2026-01-26
0.616github_releasehuggingface/transformers v4.56.0-Embedding-Gemma-previewmentionspending2025-09-04
0.596github_release1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.3mentionspending2020-11-03
0.594github_releasehuggingface/transformers v4.56.1-Vault-Gemma-previewmentionspending2025-09-12
0.581arxivUnpaired RGB-Thermal Gaussian-Splatting Using Visual Geometric Transformersmentionspending2026-06-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure.",
  "verbatim": "And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure. I mean, we have it now.",
  "conv_cues": "for sure",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "future (near-term)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 ships with palm-camera + 3-gram tactile sensor fusion",
      "notes": "Adcock confirmed sensor expansion in F03 vs F02. New modalities (palm cam + tactile) prove the prediction's directional thesis.",
      "source": "Humanoids Daily: Figure 03 upgraded camera system 2x frame rate, 60% wider FOV, palm cameras, fingertip tactile sensors at 3g sensitivity",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomy",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure 03 publicly demonstrated with new in-palm cameras + fingertip tactile sensors detecting forces ≥3 grams, fused into Helix neural policy"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BotQ production cadence reaches 1 robot/hour",
      "source": "Humanoids Daily: 24x throughput Figure scales manufacturing to one robot per hour",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure achieves 1 humanoid produced per hour at BotQ, enabling sensor-iteration cycles"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor module",
      "notes": "Adcock's literal claim ('we have it now' for IR/UV) suggests Figure could be first; but Tesla Optimus 3 (summer 2026 production) is also a candidate.",
      "source": "Humanoid OEM press releases, IEEE Spectrum / Humanoids Daily coverage",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Any major humanoid OEM (Figure, Tesla Optimus, Apptronik, 1X, Unitree) publicly demos or ships a production humanoid with thermal/IR imaging or other beyond-visible-spectrum sensor"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer feature",
      "source": "Figure customer case studies, Tesla AI Day announcements",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
 
... (truncated)