Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. | And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure. I mean, we have it now.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure. I mean, we have it now.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-10-31hitFigure 03 ships with palm-camera + 3-gram tactile sensor fusionHow: Figure 03 publicly demonstrated with new in-palm cameras + fingertip tactile sensors detecting forces ≥3 grams, fused into Helix neural policySource: Humanoids Daily: Figure 03 upgraded camera system 2x frame rate, 60% wider FOV, palm cameras, fingertip tactile sensors at 3g sensitivityconf 95%Notes: Adcock confirmed sensor expansion in F03 vs F02. New modalities (palm cam + tactile) prove the prediction's directional thesis.
- 2026-04-15hitBotQ production cadence reaches 1 robot/hourHow: Figure achieves 1 humanoid produced per hour at BotQ, enabling sensor-iteration cyclesSource: Humanoids Daily: 24x throughput Figure scales manufacturing to one robot per hourconf 99%
- 2027-02-18pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor moduleHow: Any major humanoid OEM (Figure, Tesla Optimus, Apptronik, 1X, Unitree) publicly demos or ships a production humanoid with thermal/IR imaging or other beyond-visible-spectrum sensorSource: Humanoid OEM press releases, IEEE Spectrum / Humanoids Daily coverageconf 60%Notes: Adcock's literal claim ('we have it now' for IR/UV) suggests Figure could be first; but Tesla Optimus 3 (summer 2026 production) is also a candidate.
- 2027-12-09pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFigure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer featureHow: OEM exposes multi-spectral perception (IR, UV, mmWave, or LiDAR-fused) as a customer-configurable feature in a humanoid commercial deploymentSource: Figure customer case studies, Tesla AI Day announcementsconf 50%
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst commercial humanoid deployment in domain requiring beyond-visible perceptionHow: Humanoid commercially deployed in security, search-and-rescue, hazmat inspection, or night-shift facility role specifically leveraging non-visible-spectrum sensorsSource: Customer announcements, defense/industrial trade pressconf 45%Notes: Cascade — directly validates the use-case logic Adcock cited (night patrols, heat detection).
- 2028-09-28pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.158 |
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | 20.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.132 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (2)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 | Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (5)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.619 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc3 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-01-26 |
| 0.616 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v4.56.0-Embedding-Gemma-preview | — | mentions | pending | 2025-09-04 |
| 0.596 | github_release | 1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.3 | — | mentions | pending | 2020-11-03 |
| 0.594 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v4.56.1-Vault-Gemma-preview | — | mentions | pending | 2025-09-12 |
| 0.581 | arxiv | Unpaired RGB-Thermal Gaussian-Splatting Using Visual Geometric Transformers | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure.",
"verbatim": "And then you can add infrared, ultraviolet, you can add all kinds of additional sensors into the system. Yeah, for sure. I mean, we have it now.",
"conv_cues": "for sure",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "future (near-term)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure 03 ships with palm-camera + 3-gram tactile sensor fusion",
"notes": "Adcock confirmed sensor expansion in F03 vs F02. New modalities (palm cam + tactile) prove the prediction's directional thesis.",
"source": "Humanoids Daily: Figure 03 upgraded camera system 2x frame rate, 60% wider FOV, palm cameras, fingertip tactile sensors at 3g sensitivity",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomy",
"expected_date": "2025-10-31",
"observed_date": "2025-10-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure 03 publicly demonstrated with new in-palm cameras + fingertip tactile sensors detecting forces ≥3 grams, fused into Helix neural policy"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "BotQ production cadence reaches 1 robot/hour",
"source": "Humanoids Daily: 24x throughput Figure scales manufacturing to one robot per hour",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure achieves 1 humanoid produced per hour at BotQ, enabling sensor-iteration cycles"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-02-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor module",
"notes": "Adcock's literal claim ('we have it now' for IR/UV) suggests Figure could be first; but Tesla Optimus 3 (summer 2026 production) is also a candidate.",
"source": "Humanoid OEM press releases, IEEE Spectrum / Humanoids Daily coverage",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Any major humanoid OEM (Figure, Tesla Optimus, Apptronik, 1X, Unitree) publicly demos or ships a production humanoid with thermal/IR imaging or other beyond-visible-spectrum sensor"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-12-09",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer feature",
"source": "Figure customer case studies, Tesla AI Day announcements",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2028-01-01",
"research_origin": "training",
... (truncated)