By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do... I feel pretty confident by the end of this year you'll have a hardware system that you know you could basically if you could like a teley operator or something like that you could like basically be able to do like real surgery. Um depends what type but I think like like most things and then the AI system is just layering on top of that.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do... I feel pretty confident by the end of this year you'll have a hardware system that you know you could basically if you could like a teley operator or something like that you could like basically be able to do like real surgery. Um depends what type but I think like like most things and then the AI system is just layering on top of that.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
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Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
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Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20 — Brett Adcock | 42.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.181 |
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.071 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.064 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.051 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.182 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.075 |
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.017 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.009 |
| prereq | 236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (E — Elon Musk | 24.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.005 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "depends what type of surgery; hardware capability, not yet AI-driven",
"context": "How long before these robots are your physician, your surgeon able to actually support uh all you know the complexity of a medical procedure? I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do... I feel pretty confident by the end of this year you'll have a hardware system that you know you could basically if you could like a teley operator or something like that you could like basically be able to do like real surgery. Um depends what type but I think like like most things and then the AI system is just layering on top of that.",
"conv_cues": "feel pretty confident",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
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... (truncated)