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229_008predictionBiotech/Longevityhumanoids

By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
43.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do... I feel pretty confident by the end of this year you'll have a hardware system that you know you could basically if you could like a teley operator or something like that you could like basically be able to do like real surgery. Um depends what type but I think like like most things and then the AI system is just layering on top of that.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do... I feel pretty confident by the end of this year you'll have a hardware system that you know you could basically if you could like a teley operator or something like that you could like basically be able to do like real surgery. Um depends what type but I think like like most things and then the AI system is just layering on top of that.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 44%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z43.9%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 44.9% → 43.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z44.9%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 44.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z46.5%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 49.4% → 46.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z49.4%-5.6pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 49.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_041
At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20Brett Adcock
42.3%0.5500.050-0.181
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.550+0.071
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.064
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.550+0.051
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.025

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.182
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.075
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.017
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050+0.009
prereq236_021
Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (EElon Musk
24.0%0.5000.050+0.005

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_041At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).Robotics
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.648manifoldWhat will I get in 2026 IMOmentionspending2026-06-04
0.625manifoldAny new Claude Model Before May 16th?4%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.622github_release1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.2mentionspending2020-10-14
0.620manifoldWill Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?35%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.612manifoldWill there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)24%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.609manifoldWill I break a bone before the end of 2027?7%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.603arxivAutonomous Laparoscope Control through Unified Mechanics-Based Representation of Multimodal Intraoperative Informationmentionspending2026-05-06
0.601manifoldWill Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?52%mentionspending2026-06-06
0.596manifoldWill GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?8%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.577manifoldWill there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?31%mentionspending2026-04-25

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "depends what type of surgery; hardware capability, not yet AI-driven",
  "context": "How long before these robots are your physician, your surgeon able to actually support uh all you know the complexity of a medical procedure? I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I think from a hardware perspective in 2026 we'll be able to do uh like from a hardware work what surgeons can do... I feel pretty confident by the end of this year you'll have a hardware system that you know you could basically if you could like a teley operator or something like that you could like basically be able to do like real surgery. Um depends what type but I think like like most things and then the AI system is just layering on top of that.",
  "conv_cues": "feel pretty confident",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "by end of 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_041",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "229_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "235_019",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "240_037",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "247_043",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "241_029",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus/humanoid robots to do 
... (truncated)