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229_030predictionRoboticshumanoids

If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
17.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today. You think say again I think we ship a billion today.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today. You think say again I think we ship a billion today.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.636

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
0.395
TRF=0.86
Outside weight
0.605
pulling toward base rate
inside 34.8% → blend 17.1% -17.7pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-06-04
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 17.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-05-01 → 2026-06-23overdueFigure publicly cites order book or wait-list metric
    How: Figure CEO Adcock public statement, S-1, or press release quantifies pre-order or letter-of-intent count exceeding 100,000 robots
    Source: Adcock 'billion robots today' demand thesisconf 40%
  2. 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFigure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuation
    How: Secondary tender, Series E/F, or pre-IPO crossover round closes for Figure, 1X, Apptronik, or peer at >=$50B post-money
    Source: training-window private-market trends; Figure $40B Aug-2025 raiseconf 45%
  3. 2026-07-20pendingOptimus 3 production starts summer 2026
  4. 2026-07-20pendingOptimus 3 production start as parallel demand validation
    How: Tesla announces Optimus 3 production start with order pipeline disclosure
    Source: 239_011 Optimus 3 summer 2026 prereqconf 40%
  5. 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndustry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulatively
    How: Trade analyst (Counterpoint, Bank of America Robotics report, Goldman) confirms cumulative humanoid LOIs/orders at >=100K units across vendors
    Source: BotQ 100K target framingconf 50%
  6. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst public-market humanoid IPO or direct listing
    How: Figure, 1X, Apptronik, or Agility files S-1 publicly or completes IPO/direct listing
    Source: post-event capital-markets cascadeconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 17%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-04T22:12:05Z17.1%-20.6pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.348 blend=0.171 LLR=-0.125 κ=0.77 w_in=0.39 humanoid_commercial_volume
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.8646529159546616,
  "kappa": 0.7727,
  "base_rate": 0.1,
  "predictor": "Brett Adcock",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.5031826246125007,
  "bayes_factor": "1.1:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 39% inside / 60% outside (TRF=0.865, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
  "inside_prior": 0.37679303221617494,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.30908,
      "label": "Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metric",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.12532115561407145,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure CEO Adcock public statement, S-1, or press release quantifies pre-order or letter-of-intent count exceeding 100,000 robots"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3947429588317368,
  "outside_weight": 0.6052570411682632,
  "posterior_prob": 0.17108131559143308,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6285037802265722,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00405,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3478498784581304,
  "blended_posterior": 0.17108131559143308,
  "reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.12532115561407145,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 6
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.7%+1.4pp
Network propagation: 36.3% → 37.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z36.3%+3.0pp
Network propagation: 33.3% → 36.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z33.3%+5.9pp
Network propagation: 27.4% → 33.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z27.4%+9.7pp
Network propagation: 17.7% → 27.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z17.7%-10.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.177 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z28.3%+10.6pp
Network propagation: 17.7% → 28.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z17.7%-32.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.177 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.500+0.230
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050+0.221
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050+0.213
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050+0.207
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050+0.178

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.094
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050-0.085
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.080
prereq239_011
Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Elon Musk
22.5%0.5500.050-0.043
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050-0.027

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq247_042Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in BostonRobotics
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq239_011Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Robotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.539arxivOn the generalized Komar charge of supersymmetric solutionsmentionspending2026-05-06
0.529arxivAdS$_9$ solutions in type II supergravitiesmentionspending2026-06-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 billion robots",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "conditional on solving general-purpose humanoid",
  "context": "I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today. You think say again I think we ship a billion today.",
  "conv_cues": "I do think",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "today (conditional)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "247_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metric",
      "source": "Adcock 'billion robots today' demand thesis",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-23",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure CEO Adcock public statement, S-1, or press release quantifies pre-order or letter-of-intent count exceeding 100,000 robots"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "229_030",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuation",
      "source": "training-window private-market trends; Figure $40B Aug-2025 raise",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion
... (truncated)