If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today. You think say again I think we ship a billion today.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today. You think say again I think we ship a billion today.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-06-23overdueFigure publicly cites order book or wait-list metricHow: Figure CEO Adcock public statement, S-1, or press release quantifies pre-order or letter-of-intent count exceeding 100,000 robotsSource: Adcock 'billion robots today' demand thesisconf 40%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFigure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationHow: Secondary tender, Series E/F, or pre-IPO crossover round closes for Figure, 1X, Apptronik, or peer at >=$50B post-moneySource: training-window private-market trends; Figure $40B Aug-2025 raiseconf 45%
- 2026-07-20pendingOptimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationHow: Tesla announces Optimus 3 production start with order pipeline disclosureSource: 239_011 Optimus 3 summer 2026 prereqconf 40%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndustry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelyHow: Trade analyst (Counterpoint, Bank of America Robotics report, Goldman) confirms cumulative humanoid LOIs/orders at >=100K units across vendorsSource: BotQ 100K target framingconf 50%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingHow: Figure, 1X, Apptronik, or Agility files S-1 publicly or completes IPO/direct listingSource: post-event capital-markets cascadeconf 30%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.8646529159546616,
"kappa": 0.7727,
"base_rate": 0.1,
"predictor": "Brett Adcock",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.5031826246125007,
"bayes_factor": "1.1:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 39% inside / 60% outside (TRF=0.865, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
"inside_prior": 0.37679303221617494,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.30908,
"label": "Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metric",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.4,
"source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"adjusted_llr": -0.12532115561407145,
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure CEO Adcock public statement, S-1, or press release quantifies pre-order or letter-of-intent count exceeding 100,000 robots"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3947429588317368,
"outside_weight": 0.6052570411682632,
"posterior_prob": 0.17108131559143308,
"posterior_logit": -0.6285037802265722,
"predictor_brier": 0.00405,
"inside_posterior": 0.3478498784581304,
"blended_posterior": 0.17108131559143308,
"reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.12532115561407145,
"predictor_n_resolved": 6
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.230 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.221 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.213 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.207 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.178 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.094 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.085 |
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.080 |
| prereq | 239_011 Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 — Elon Musk | 22.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.027 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_042 | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Robotics | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 | Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 | Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 | Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_011 | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.539 | arxiv | On the generalized Komar charge of supersymmetric solutions | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.529 | arxiv | AdS$_9$ solutions in type II supergravities | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "1 billion robots",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "SPECULATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "conditional on solving general-purpose humanoid",
"context": "I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I do think if we could solve a general purpose humanoid robot today that could do everything you wanted. I think we could ship a billion of them today. You think say again I think we ship a billion today.",
"conv_cues": "I do think",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "today (conditional)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
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},
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},
{
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"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
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"source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-06-23",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Figure CEO Adcock public statement, S-1, or press release quantifies pre-order or letter-of-intent count exceeding 100,000 robots"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "229_030",
"expected_date": "2026-06-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuation",
"source": "training-window private-market trends; Figure $40B Aug-2025 raise",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2026-07-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion
... (truncated)