← Cockpit
229_033predictionRoboticshumanoids

Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
40.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-02-01 – 2026-02-28
Edges in / out
6 / 5
Tickers exposed
35

Prediction text

Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | we have the facility outfitted uh that we're going to expand like hundreds of robots into two that will run 24/7... we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
we have the facility outfitted uh that we're going to expand like hundreds of robots into two that will run 24/7... we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.662

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 40.4% → blend 40.4% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-31hitFigure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operations
    How: Figure AI publicly announces Grid facility opening with humanoids operating 24/7 in commercial workforce mode
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up — Humanoids Daily reporting Grid opens January 2026conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Grid facility opened January 2026 with hundreds of robots running 24/7 for home and commercial workforce.
  2. 2026-04-15hitFigure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate
    How: Figure achieves production rate of one Figure 03 humanoid every hour at BotQ (24x throughput improvement over January rate of one per day)
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hourconf 99%
  3. 2026-04-01 → 2026-05-31overdueFigure production triples from March to May 2026
    How: Figure publicly discloses tripling of monthly production output from March to May 2026 baseline
    Source: Figure AI press, Brett Adcock X account, Humanoids Dailyconf 85%
    Notes: Adcock has publicly stated this target. May data point will confirm.
  4. 2026-07-20pendingOptimus 3 production starts summer 2026
  5. 2026-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku
    How: Figure achieves one robot every 30 minutes in Baku facility, per stated 2026 goal
    Source: Brett Adcock public statements, Figure AI blogconf 55%
  6. 2026-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingCumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 units
    How: Cumulative Figure 03 production crosses 1000 units (assuming continued ramp from current ~1/hour to ~2/hour by end-year)
    Source: Figure AI announcementsconf 50%
    Notes: Cascade — directly affects parent prediction 229_001 (Figure puts robots on its own lines) trajectory.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.4%+1.5pp
Network propagation: 38.9% → 40.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-09T22:14:10Z38.9%-6.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.389 blend=0.389 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 w_in=1.00 humanoid_commercial_volume
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0,
  "kappa": 0.7727,
  "base_rate": 0.1,
  "predictor": "Brett Adcock",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.18391928318256143,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 100% inside / 0% outside (TRF=0.000, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
  "inside_prior": 0.4541493528866022,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.656795,
      "label": "Figure production triples from March to May 2026",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-robotics",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly discloses tripling of monthly production output from March to May 2026 baseline"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 1,
  "outside_weight": 0,
  "posterior_prob": 0.389306858207242,
  "posterior_logit": -0.4502267388624632,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00405,
  "inside_posterior": 0.389306858207242,
  "blended_posterior": 0.389306858207242,
  "reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 6
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.4%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 48.2% → 45.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.2%-6.8pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 48.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z55.0%+6.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.550 w_in=1.00 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z48.7%-6.3pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 48.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_041
At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20Brett Adcock
42.3%0.5500.050-0.146
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.550+0.036
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050+0.026
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050+0.017
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050+0.010

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 202Alex Wissner-Gross
65.0%0.9200.050-0.243
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.168
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.061
prereq239_011
Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Elon Musk
22.5%0.5500.050+0.030
prereq241_056
Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive rPeter Diamandis
31.8%0.6500.050-0.022

Ticker exposure

35 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

SERVIRBTALNTSYMLYSCFFANUYCGNXMPHSEHYNVDAUSARRNSHFBYDDYSTMTXNTSLATERHYMTFIFNNYAMZNABBNYMIELYTELPH

Adverse (5)

MANKELYAKFYRHITNET

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_041At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).Robotics
correlateS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_042Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in BostonRobotics
prereq241_056Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downRobotics
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq239_011Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Robotics

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.585polymarketCounter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs0%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.550codex_research_packFigure - Ramping Figure 03 Productioncorroboratespending2026-04-29
0.550codex_research_packFigure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robotscorroboratespending2025-03-16
0.537polymarketNew York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.550%mentionspending2026-06-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "hundreds of robots, 24/7",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "We're spinning up like right now the facility just got open like this week. You guys saw it's like squeaky clean and we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we have the facility outfitted uh that we're going to expand like hundreds of robots into two that will run 24/7... we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.",
  "conv_cues": "going to; will run",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "this month (Feb 2026)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_041",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operations",
      "notes": "HIT — Grid facility opened January 2026 with hundreds of robots running 24/7 for home and commercial workforce.",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up — Humanoids Daily reporting Grid opens January 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure AI publicly announces Grid facility opening with humanoids operating 24/7 in commercial workforce mode"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure achieves production rate of one Figure 03 humanoid every hour at BotQ (24x throughput improvement over January rate of one per day)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure production triples from March to May 2026",
      "notes": "Adcock has publicly stated this target. May data point will confirm.",
      "source": "Figure AI press, Brett Adcock X account, Humanoids Daily",
      "sta
... (truncated)