Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | we have the facility outfitted uh that we're going to expand like hundreds of robots into two that will run 24/7... we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
we have the facility outfitted uh that we're going to expand like hundreds of robots into two that will run 24/7... we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-31hitFigure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operationsHow: Figure AI publicly announces Grid facility opening with humanoids operating 24/7 in commercial workforce modeSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up — Humanoids Daily reporting Grid opens January 2026conf 99%Notes: HIT — Grid facility opened January 2026 with hundreds of robots running 24/7 for home and commercial workforce.
- 2026-04-15hitFigure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rateHow: Figure achieves production rate of one Figure 03 humanoid every hour at BotQ (24x throughput improvement over January rate of one per day)Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hourconf 99%
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-05-31overdueFigure production triples from March to May 2026How: Figure publicly discloses tripling of monthly production output from March to May 2026 baselineSource: Figure AI press, Brett Adcock X account, Humanoids Dailyconf 85%Notes: Adcock has publicly stated this target. May data point will confirm.
- 2026-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure achieves 30-min production cadence in BakuHow: Figure achieves one robot every 30 minutes in Baku facility, per stated 2026 goalSource: Brett Adcock public statements, Figure AI blogconf 55%
- 2026-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingCumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 unitsHow: Cumulative Figure 03 production crosses 1000 units (assuming continued ramp from current ~1/hour to ~2/hour by end-year)Source: Figure AI announcementsconf 50%Notes: Cascade — directly affects parent prediction 229_001 (Figure puts robots on its own lines) trajectory.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0,
"kappa": 0.7727,
"base_rate": 0.1,
"predictor": "Brett Adcock",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.18391928318256143,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 100% inside / 0% outside (TRF=0.000, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
"inside_prior": 0.4541493528866022,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.656795,
"label": "Figure production triples from March to May 2026",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-robotics",
"adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
"expected_date": "2026-05-01",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly discloses tripling of monthly production output from March to May 2026 baseline"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 1,
"outside_weight": 0,
"posterior_prob": 0.389306858207242,
"posterior_logit": -0.4502267388624632,
"predictor_brier": 0.00405,
"inside_posterior": 0.389306858207242,
"blended_posterior": 0.389306858207242,
"reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
"predictor_n_resolved": 6
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20 — Brett Adcock | 42.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.146 |
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.036 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.026 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.017 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.010 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 202 — Alex Wissner-Gross | 65.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.243 |
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.168 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.061 |
| prereq | 239_011 Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 — Elon Musk | 22.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.030 |
| prereq | 241_056 Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive r — Peter Diamandis | 31.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 | Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_042 | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_056 | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 239_011 | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.585 | polymarket | Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-03-16 |
| 0.537 | polymarket | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-06 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "hundreds of robots, 24/7",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "We're spinning up like right now the facility just got open like this week. You guys saw it's like squeaky clean and we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we have the facility outfitted uh that we're going to expand like hundreds of robots into two that will run 24/7... we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month.",
"conv_cues": "going to; will run",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "this month (Feb 2026)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
"status": "partial",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_041",
"expected_date": "2025-11-30",
"observed_date": "2025-11-30"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operations",
"notes": "HIT — Grid facility opened January 2026 with hundreds of robots running 24/7 for home and commercial workforce.",
"source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up — Humanoids Daily reporting Grid opens January 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up",
"expected_date": "2026-01-31",
"observed_date": "2026-01-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure AI publicly announces Grid facility opening with humanoids operating 24/7 in commercial workforce mode"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate",
"source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure achieves production rate of one Figure 03 humanoid every hour at BotQ (24x throughput improvement over January rate of one per day)"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure production triples from March to May 2026",
"notes": "Adcock has publicly stated this target. May data point will confirm.",
"source": "Figure AI press, Brett Adcock X account, Humanoids Daily",
"sta
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