← Cockpit
229_002predictionRoboticshumanoids

Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
56.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026. We have we know exactly what like where we're going geography wise what use cases are going to be deployment schedules. Uh we want those to be figure 3es. | Commercial deployment milestones 2026

Key catalyst: Commercial deployment milestones 2026

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026. We have we know exactly what like where we're going geography wise what use cases are going to be deployment schedules. Uh we want those to be figure 3es.

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Figure 03 with BMW (second customer signed late 2025). 2026 scale-out underway.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.691

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 56.1% → blend 56.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

9 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-302026-05-022026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 56.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2026-06-30overdueFigure announces second major US enterprise customer
    How: Figure publicly confirms second flagship customer beyond BMW (Adcock has called it 'one of the biggest U.S. companies') with deployment schedule
    Source: https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/figure-ai-plans-to-ship-100-000-humanoid-robots-over-next-few-yearsconf 85%
    Notes: Adcock confirmed second customer signed; identity not yet revealed publicly.
  2. 2026-04-15hitFigure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate
    How: Figure achieves production rate of one Figure 03 humanoid every hour at BotQ (24x throughput improvement over January rate of one per day)
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hourconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Production scale-out is direct precondition for commercial deployment to signed customers.
  3. 2026-06-30pendingFigure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmed
    How: Figure 03 robots operate in productive shifts at BMW manufacturing facility (sheet metal handling) with documented uptime metrics
    Source: Figure AI press releases, BMW operations statementsconf 85%
  4. 2026-09-30pendingFigure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026
    How: Figure publicly discloses cumulative 2026 shipments to commercial customers exceeding 1,000 humanoid units
    Source: Figure AI annual disclosure, Brett Adcock X accountconf 65%
    Notes: Path to 100K over 4 years implies ~25K/year baseline; 1K in 2026 is conservative ramp checkpoint.
  5. 2026-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facility
    How: Figure publicly discloses production cadence of one Figure 03 unit every 30 minutes at expanded production facility
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-upconf 60%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 56%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z56.1%+1.4pp
Network propagation: 54.7% → 56.1%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z54.7%+2.9pp
Network propagation: 51.8% → 54.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z51.8%+6.1pp
Network propagation: 45.6% → 51.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.6%+12.3pp
Network propagation: 33.4% → 45.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z33.4%-29.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.564 blend=0.334 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 w_in=0.61 humanoid_commercial_volume
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5517581791161151,
  "kappa": 0.7727,
  "base_rate": 0.1,
  "predictor": "Brett Adcock",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.5239139737528531,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 61% inside / 38% outside (TRF=0.552, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
  "inside_prior": 0.6280625278798663,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.656795,
      "label": "Figure announces second major US enterprise customer",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/figure-ai-plans-to-ship-100-000-humanoid-robots-over-next-few-years",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly confirms second flagship customer beyond BMW (Adcock has called it 'one of the biggest U.S. companies') with deployment schedule"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6137692746187193,
  "outside_weight": 0.38623072538128067,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3339163664924183,
  "posterior_logit": 0.25760651807295126,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00405,
  "inside_posterior": 0.564047830172762,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3339163664924183,
  "reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 6
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z62.8%+6.3pp
Network propagation: 56.5% → 62.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z56.5%-7.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.920 blend=0.565 w_in=0.53 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z64.1%+7.7pp
Network propagation: 56.4% → 64.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z56.4%-35.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.920 blend=0.564 w_in=0.53 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.920+0.168
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.9200.050+0.151
prereqSEM_041
At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20Brett Adcock
42.3%0.9200.050-0.148
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.9200.050+0.135
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.9200.050+0.123

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.263
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.156
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050+0.083
prereq236_021
Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (EElon Musk
24.0%0.5000.050+0.066
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050+0.044

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_041At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).Robotics
correlateS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29partialthesis_timeline_v1.0_importFigure 03 with BMW (second customer signed late 2025). 2026 scale-out underway.

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.667manifold3rd largest company end of June 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.664manifold3rd largest company end of August 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.658manifold3rd largest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.616github_releasehuggingface/transformers v5.0.0mentionspending2026-01-26
0.590polymarketWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?10%mentionspending2025-11-04
0.565manifoldWhen will the next MLB CBA be signedmentionspending2026-05-29
0.565manifoldWill Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?28%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.554polymarketWill Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?100%mentionspending2025-12-29

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "the second thing is we want to scale out robots in industrial commercial workforce. Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026. We have we know exactly what like where we're going geography wise what use cases are going to be deployment schedules. Uh we want those to be figure 3es.",
  "conv_cues": "going to; we know exactly",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_041",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure announces second major US enterprise customer",
      "notes": "Adcock confirmed second customer signed; identity not yet revealed publicly.",
      "source": "https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/figure-ai-plans-to-ship-100-000-humanoid-robots-over-next-few-years",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/figure-ai-plans-to-ship-100-000-humanoid-robots-over-next-few-years",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly confirms second flagship customer beyond BMW (Adcock has called it 'one of the biggest U.S. companies') with deployment schedule"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate",
      "notes": "HIT — Production scale-out is direct precondition for commercial deployment to signed customers.",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure achieves production rate of one Figure 03 humanoid every hour at BotQ (24x throughput improvement over January rate of one per day)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal"
... (truncated)