Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026. We have we know exactly what like where we're going geography wise what use cases are going to be deployment schedules. Uh we want those to be figure 3es. | Commercial deployment milestones 2026
Key catalyst: Commercial deployment milestones 2026
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026. We have we know exactly what like where we're going geography wise what use cases are going to be deployment schedules. Uh we want those to be figure 3es.
Resolution evidence
Figure 03 with BMW (second customer signed late 2025). 2026 scale-out underway.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-06-30overdueFigure announces second major US enterprise customerHow: Figure publicly confirms second flagship customer beyond BMW (Adcock has called it 'one of the biggest U.S. companies') with deployment scheduleSource: https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/figure-ai-plans-to-ship-100-000-humanoid-robots-over-next-few-yearsconf 85%Notes: Adcock confirmed second customer signed; identity not yet revealed publicly.
- 2026-04-15hitFigure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rateHow: Figure achieves production rate of one Figure 03 humanoid every hour at BotQ (24x throughput improvement over January rate of one per day)Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hourconf 99%Notes: HIT — Production scale-out is direct precondition for commercial deployment to signed customers.
- 2026-06-30pendingFigure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedHow: Figure 03 robots operate in productive shifts at BMW manufacturing facility (sheet metal handling) with documented uptime metricsSource: Figure AI press releases, BMW operations statementsconf 85%
- 2026-09-30pendingFigure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026How: Figure publicly discloses cumulative 2026 shipments to commercial customers exceeding 1,000 humanoid unitsSource: Figure AI annual disclosure, Brett Adcock X accountconf 65%Notes: Path to 100K over 4 years implies ~25K/year baseline; 1K in 2026 is conservative ramp checkpoint.
- 2026-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilityHow: Figure publicly discloses production cadence of one Figure 03 unit every 30 minutes at expanded production facilitySource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-upconf 60%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.5517581791161151,
"kappa": 0.7727,
"base_rate": 0.1,
"predictor": "Brett Adcock",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": 0.5239139737528531,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 61% inside / 38% outside (TRF=0.552, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
"inside_prior": 0.6280625278798663,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.656795,
"label": "Figure announces second major US enterprise customer",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/figure-ai-plans-to-ship-100-000-humanoid-robots-over-next-few-years",
"adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly confirms second flagship customer beyond BMW (Adcock has called it 'one of the biggest U.S. companies') with deployment schedule"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.6137692746187193,
"outside_weight": 0.38623072538128067,
"posterior_prob": 0.3339163664924183,
"posterior_logit": 0.25760651807295126,
"predictor_brier": 0.00405,
"inside_posterior": 0.564047830172762,
"blended_posterior": 0.3339163664924183,
"reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
"predictor_n_resolved": 6
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.168 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.151 |
| prereq | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20 — Brett Adcock | 42.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.148 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.135 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.123 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.263 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.156 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.083 |
| prereq | 236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (E — Elon Musk | 24.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.066 |
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.044 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 | Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 | Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 | Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 | Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | partial | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Figure 03 with BMW (second customer signed late 2025). 2026 scale-out underway. |
Linked documents (8)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.667 | manifold | 3rd largest company end of June 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.664 | manifold | 3rd largest company end of August 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.658 | manifold | 3rd largest company end of September 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.616 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v5.0.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-01-26 |
| 0.590 | polymarket | Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? | 10% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-04 |
| 0.565 | manifold | When will the next MLB CBA be signed | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.565 | manifold | Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year? | 28% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.554 | polymarket | Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026? | 100% | mentions | pending | 2025-12-29 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "the second thing is we want to scale out robots in industrial commercial workforce. Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "Uh so we have like multiple clients now we've signed uh they are like buying or leasing robots from us and we are going to get those out at scale in 2026. We have we know exactly what like where we're going geography wise what use cases are going to be deployment schedules. Uh we want those to be figure 3es.",
"conv_cues": "going to; we know exactly",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
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{
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"source": "https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/figure-ai-plans-to-ship-100-000-humanoid-robots-over-next-few-years",
"status": "overdue",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
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{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal"
... (truncated)