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238_015predictionRoboticshumanoids

Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)

Predictor: Brent Bornick · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
42.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | I pulled Brent Borneick aside and he promised me okay I'm not going to take one of the one of the two robots he had here unfortunately but this summer he will ship me one of those... this summer... one of the X robots. Yes.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
I pulled Brent Borneick aside and he promised me okay I'm not going to take one of the one of the two robots he had here unfortunately but this summer he will ship me one of those... this summer... one of the X robots. Yes.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Brent Bornick/1X 'summer 2026' Neo delivery to Peter. 1X Neo began shipping preorders late 2025; delivery to Peter plausibly on-schedule.

Predictor: Brent Bornick

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Brent Bornick is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.622

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 42.1% → blend 42.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2026-09-30pending1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacity
    How: 1X officially opens or confirms operations at Hayward, CA factory with capacity to produce 10,000+ NEO units annually
    Source: https://www.briefs.co/news/1x-robots-neo/ — 1X opens U.S. plant for 10,000 home robots in 2026conf 90%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingBernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specifically
    How: 1X (Bernt Bornich or company) confirms via X/Twitter, podcast, or news interview that NEO has been delivered to Peter Diamandis's residence in summer 2026
    Source: https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/2040206793100435869 — Diamandis posts excitement to welcome Neo from 1X to his home soonconf 65%
  3. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pending1X NEO begins consumer home shipments in 2026 (Early Access)
    How: 1X publicly announces first NEO consumer home deliveries in 2026 (any month) with at least one delivery photo or news report
    Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/1x-neo-humanoid-factory-hayward-10000-home-robots — 1X starts shipping NEO to US homesconf 85%
  4. 2026-06-15 → 2026-12-31pendingDiamandis shares first home-use video/post of 1X NEO at his residence
    How: Peter Diamandis publishes X/Twitter post, blog, or YouTube video showing 1X NEO operating in his home
    Source: https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/2040206793100435869 — Diamandis previews welcoming Neo to homeconf 60%
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingTotal cumulative NEO consumer deliveries reach 1,000+ units globally in 2026
    How: 1X publicly discloses cumulative NEO consumer deliveries of at least 1,000 units by end of 2026 (via press release or interview)
    Source: https://interestingengineering.com/ai-robotics/1x-humanoid-robot-neo-factory-california — 1X factory plans for 100K NEO units by 2027conf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z42.1%+1.7pp
Network propagation: 40.4% → 42.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.4%+3.6pp
Network propagation: 36.8% → 40.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z36.8%+7.2pp
Network propagation: 29.6% → 36.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z29.6%+11.1pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z18.6%-12.1pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z30.6%+12.1pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 30.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z18.6%-36.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 202Alex Wissner-Gross
65.0%0.5500.050-0.049
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5500.050-0.038
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.550+0.019
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050+0.010
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.007

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.179
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.072
prereq239_011
Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Elon Musk
22.5%0.5500.050+0.039
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.019
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050+0.006

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_042Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in BostonRobotics
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq239_011Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Robotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-07-31[Robotics 2026-07] remont line start; unit cost disclosure [238_015] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment countpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.606manifoldWill Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?74%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.606manifoldWill Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun63%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.604manifoldStarmer out before August?16%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.595manifoldStarmer out before October?47%mentionspending2026-05-24
0.591manifoldStarmer out before November?59%mentionspending2026-06-06
0.585manifoldWho will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026?mentionspending2026-05-11
0.578manifoldResult of MrBeast red/blue button poll?mentionspending2026-04-28
0.577manifoldSkeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?79%mentionspending2026-06-02
0.570manifoldwill drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)24%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.561manifoldTrailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?69%mentionspending2026-05-11

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "I pulled Brent Borneick aside and he promised me okay I'm not going to take one of the one of the two robots he had here unfortunately but this summer he will ship me one of those this summer one of the X robots.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "I pulled Brent Borneick aside and he promised me okay I'm not going to take one of the one of the two robots he had here unfortunately but this summer he will ship me one of those... this summer... one of the X robots. Yes.",
  "conv_cues": "he promised",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Summer 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "247_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacity",
      "source": "https://www.briefs.co/news/1x-robots-neo/ — 1X opens U.S. plant for 10,000 home robots in 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "1X officially opens or confirms operations at Hayward, CA factory with capacity to produce 10,000+ NEO units annually"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specifically",
      "source": "https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/2040206793100435869 — Diamandis posts excitement to welcome Neo from 1X to his home soon",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
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      },
      "measurement_criterion": "1X (Bernt Bornich or company) confirms via X/Twitter,
... (truncated)