At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans.

At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans. | at some point you're going to walk out probably in San Francisco be the first and you'll see more humanoids than humans. Yeah. And I think that'll be an amazing day.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

at some point you're going to walk out probably in San Francisco be the first and you'll see more humanoids than humans. Yeah. And I think that'll be an amazing day.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "more humanoids than humans (in city)",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "it is hard to feel cuz you don't see it every day, but at some point you're going to walk out probably in San Francisco be the first and you'll see more humanoids than humans.",
  "verbatim": "at some point you're going to walk out probably in San Francisco be the first and you'll see more humanoids than humans. Yeah. And I think that'll be an amazing day.",
  "conv_cues": "going to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "at some point (future)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Global humanoid demand reaches 30,000 units in 2026",
      "source": "https://www.bain.com/insights/humanoid-robots-from-demos-to-deployment-technology-report-2025/ - base case 30,000 units 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.bain.com/insights/humanoid-robots-from-demos-to-deployment-technology-report-2025/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry consensus tracker (Bain, Morgan Stanley) confirms >=30,000 global humanoid unit demand for calendar 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla Optimus external customer shipments begin",
      "source": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-01-vs-tesla-optimus-gen-2 - first external customers expected late 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-01-vs-tesla-optimus-gen-2",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla begins shipping Optimus to first non-Tesla external customers, per Q3 2026 / 2027 guidance"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Foundation deploys 10,000 humanoids in 2026, 50,000 by end-2027",
      "source": "https://interestingengineering.com/military/us-foundation-build-50000-humanoid-robots - SF Foundation: 40 robots 2025, 10,000 in 2026, 50,000 by end 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://interestingengineering.com/military/us-foundation-build-50000-humanoid-robots",
      "expected_date": "2027-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-12-31"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "San Francisco-based Foundation publicly confirms cumulative humanoid manufacture of >=10,000 units in 2026 and on track for 50,000 by end-2027"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-08-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in SF Bay Area exceeds 5,000",
      "source": "https://www.bain.com/insights/humanoid-robots-from-demos-to-deployment-technolo
... (truncated)